Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:18PM Thursday November 23, 2017 10:00 PM CST (04:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 9:36PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 823 Pm Cst Thu Nov 23 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
.gale warning in effect from 3 am cst Friday through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds around 15 kt increasing to gales to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday..Southwest gales to 40 kt. Slight chance of rain showers in the morning...then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Friday night..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming northwest to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Chance of rain and snow in the morning. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201711241030;;868503 FZUS63 KLOT 240223 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 823 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.2 inches developing over southern Manitoba this evening will deepen to 29.1 inches as it passes north of the Lakes Friday. A cold front trailing the low will move across Lake Michigan Friday night, as high pressure of 30.1 inches builds across the Plains. This high will move across the western Great Lakes over the weekend, before a 29.8 inch low passes over, or very close to the northern Great Lakes Sunday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-241030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 240308
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1008 pm est Thu nov 23 2017

Update
Issued at 1008 pm est Thu nov 23 2017
evening satellite... Upper air and surface maps reveal short wave
troughing and colder air retreating eastward out of the great
lakes. Low amplitude ridging noted upstream across the plains and
into the rockies and well defined low-mid level thermal ridging
stretches up through the central conus... Nosing into the upper
midwest. Surface low pressure is over south-central canada with a
tight p-gradient and increasing low-mid level warm advection
flow forcing edging into the northern lakes region. Several small
pockets of warm advection forced showers already noted spreading
westward across western upper michigan this evening along the
eastward edge of the advancing warm air.

Rest of tonight into early Friday... Pulse of low-mid level warm
advection forcing spreads across the northern lakes region over
the next several hours... As upstream thermal ridge axis folds into
the western great lakes and warmer air begins to flood into the
region. Given the upstream radar trends... Certainly looks like a
few light showers sprinkles will make it into and across eastern
upper mi tip of the mitt areas after midnight or so... And have
pushed pops into those areas a little quicker than inherited
forecast. Given how quickly temperature profiles (sfc and aloft)
warm to above freezing over the next next several hours... Anything
that does reach the ground should mostly be of the liquid
variety... Although it could be close. In any event... Very minimal
qpf anticipated with little or no impact.

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 238 pm est Thu nov 23 2017

Milder yet for Friday...

high impact weather potential... Minimal over land. Gale force wind
gusts expected across lake michigan and on portions of lake huron
Friday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Remarkably progressive pattern continues
(with no end in sight), with one shortwave trough on the way out,
with yet another set to arrive Friday. Lack of moisture with today's
passing wave well evident, with just some spotty morning drizzle and
weakish lake effect, especially off lake superior. Wave arriving
Friday looks to have a bit more moisture to work with, perhaps
enough to drum up a bit of light rain as it passes.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature and cloud trends
through the forecast. Addressing that light rain potential Friday.

Details: warm air advection strengthens with time tonight as
southwest flow intensifies well ahead of that next approaching wave.

Dry conditions expected much of the overnight, with that deepening
warm air advection perhaps kicking off some light showers late
across eastern upper michigan. With warming thermal profiles and a
deep elevated above freezing layer, suspect any precipitation that
does occur will remain liquid.

And, that WAA regime continues right through Friday out ahead of a
deepening area of low pressure and its attendant cold front. Rain
showers are expected, particularly across the north where deeper
saturation will be realized. Increasingly gusty southwest winds will
do a number to temperatures, with afternoon readings expected to top
out well into the 40s, with even some lower 50s near lake michigan.

If more Sun is realized, can see 50s a bit more common even further
inland.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 238 pm est Thu nov 23 2017

Seasonably cool with a wintry mix early followed by some light
snow to end the weekend...

high impact weather potential: wintry mix or drizzle Saturday
trending toward snow Sunday, increasing the threat for some slippery
driving conditions.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation type Friday
night and Saturday with dry air aloft.

Pattern synopsis forecast... At upper levels, a 500mb trough dropping
south into the northern plains Friday, will settle over the great
lakes Saturday, before pushing east toward the north atlantic Sunday
night. Mid level temperatures in this pattern will drop from around
+8c Friday night in advance of the approaching 500mb wave, to around
-12c Saturday as the upper trough swings over the state. 850mb temps
recover slightly to around -5c to -7c Sunday evening as the upper
trough pushes east. At the surface, a strong storm system pushing
across canada and into ontario Friday, will sweep a cold front
across the great lakes Friday night as the storm sytem lifts into
quebec. This front will exit the region Saturday night. A narrow
area of high pressure will sweep over the state Sunday morning,
before a clipper quickly drops out of ontario and into the great
lakes Sunday evening.

Overall, model soundings showing a thermal temperature profile
sufficient for an all rain event across northern michigan Friday
evening, with freezing levels over 8k ft in advance of approaching
cold front. However low lvl temp profiles drop significantly between
06z and 12z Sat on the backside of the exiting boundary, with the
freezing level dropping to under 1400 ft. Additionally, model
soundings show mid and upper lvl mstr decreasing rapidly by 12z sat
across northern michigan, while abundant low lvl mstr remains
trapped below the inversion into early Sunday, in a temp profile
between 0c and -9c. This will increase the likelihood of drizzle or
freezing drizzle across much of the forecast area Saturday and
Saturday night. Any lingering drizzle early Sunday should transit to
all snow during the day, as upper lvl mstr increases with
approaching shortwave, helping ice crystal seeding from aloft
(though mid levels seem to remain dry).

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 238 pm est Thu nov 23 2017
pattern remains similar to what we have been seeing for the past few
days, with height rises and warming temperatures building in getting
briefly disrupted by clippers passing near or through the region.

Timing is often difficult with these energetic setups, but right now
it looks like precipitation chances will be tied to systems moving
through mid-week as well as late in the week. Expect above normal
temperatures through the period, with the brief cool downs serving
to get temperatures closer to normal.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 715 pm est Thu nov 23 2017
vfr cloud deck continues to steadily erode w-e across northern
lower michigan this evening... Now largely clr at tvc and mbl. That
trend will persist this evening although there will be thicker
mid and high cloud cover settling into the region overnight into
Friday.

Bigger issue is wind. Strong southerly flow will develop late
overnight and persist through much of Friday. This will lead to
some gustier winds during the day Friday. But a fairly strong low
level temperature inversion will also lead to llws issues on
Friday... Even through the day.

Marine
Issued at 238 pm est Thu nov 23 2017
widespread gale and small craft advisory conditions expected
through Friday as strong low pressure develops and advances across
the northern lakes. Gale gusts expected to hold off until very late
tonight for northern lake michigan, with gale conditions expected on
lake michigan and areas down near saginaw bay on lake huron during
the day Friday. While gales come to an end Friday evening, small
craft advisory conditions expected to continue on all waters through
Saturday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Friday for lhz345>347.

Gale warning from 4 am to 10 pm est Friday for lhz348-349.

Lm... Gale warning from 4 am to 10 pm est Friday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Friday for lsz321-322.

Update... Ba
near term... mb
short term... Sr
long term... Am
aviation... Ba
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi71 min SSW 18 G 19 42°F 47°F3 ft1010.3 hPa (-1.9)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi61 min S 2.9 G 11 36°F 1009.1 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi61 min SSW 13 G 17 40°F 1008.1 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
SW9
SW10
G13
SW11
G17
SW12
SW5
SW6
G9
SW6
G9
SW7
SW6
G9
SW5
SW6
G9
SW7
G11
SW8
G28
W5
G9
SW6
G9
W11
G15
W6
G11
SW5
G9
S4
S6
S6
SW6
G10
S7
S9
G13
1 day
ago
W9
G12
W6
G11
NW9
W6
G10
W9
G12
W11
G14
W9
G12
W5
G10
W5
W7
W6
G10
W5
SW1
G4
SE6
G10
SW7
G11
SW7
G10
S11
SW7
G11
SW6
SW7
G10
SW6
SW6
G10
SW9
G12
SW8
G11
2 days
ago
S15
G21
S14
G20
SW11
G16
S12
G17
SW11
G17
SW11
G14
SW15
G19
SW17
G23
W11
G18
W10
G17
W16
G26
W17
G26
W11
G20
W17
G23
NW13
G18
NW16
G23
NW18
NW21
G26
NW22
G27
NW21
NW17
G22
NW14
G27
NW13
G23
NW11
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair32°F26°F78%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrSW6SW10
G15
SW9
G14
SW9
G15
W10
G16
SW10
G14
W6
G18
W6SW6W9W9W6SW7
G15
W8
G16
W10W10SW4SW5SW3CalmS3SE4SE3Calm
1 day agoNW9
G16
NW8NW8
G14
NW11
G16
NW7N4NW7NW7NW4NW5NW3CalmNW3CalmW3SW5SW5S5S6SW5SW6SW5SW5
G16
SW8
2 days agoS18
G29
S21
G30
S15
G26
SW12
G27
S13
G23
SW12
G22
SW9
G19
SW14
G25
W11
G21
W14
G21
NW16
G24
W13
G21
NW18
G22
NW15
G21
NW14
G20
NW10
G18
NW14
G22
NW12
G19
NW16
G22
NW7
G16
N11
G19
NW13
G20
NW7
G15
N5
G14

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.