Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday August 20, 2017 7:56 PM CDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:27AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 243 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 20 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening... Then showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ364 Expires:201708210315;;687173 FZUS63 KLOT 201943 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 243 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...A cold frontal trough, averaging 30.0 inches, will settle across the northern Lakes tonight before becoming nearly stationary. An area of low pressure of 29.6 inches will develop along the front over the northern Lakes Monday night, and will move east into far southwestern Ontario early Tuesday while the cold front pushes southeast across Lake Michigan. The low will then deepen to 29.4 inches over southern Quebec Tuesday evening while the front continues through the Ohio Valley. Expansive high pressure of 30.1 inches will spread from the Canadian prairies to the western Lakes Wednesday night, and will linger through the end of the week. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-210315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 202317
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
717 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Near term (tonight through Monday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Scattered showers thunderstorms through Monday and spotty
eclipse viewing Monday afternoon...

high impact weather potential: some scattered convection
tonight... Better potential with daytime heating Monday. Some severe
potential for northern lower Monday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: generally partly-mostly sunny skies
across northern michigan at mid afternoon... With some diurnal cu
around and ci blowoff from a remnant MCS (and associated mcv) moving
across northern il. A cold occluded front stretches across
northwest ontario far northwest wisconsin southern minnesota... With
mid upper 60s dew points ahead of the front and steep mid level
lapse rates associated with an eastward advancing elevated mixed
layer resulting in scattered convection developing across western
upper northwest wisconsin where MLCAPE values in the 1000-2000j kg
reside.

Upstream cold front will get stretched west-east as it moves into
the upper lakes this evening... And will lie across northern lower
michigan during the day Monday beneath zonal low-mid level flow.

Primary forecast concerns: cloud cover for Monday of course... And
precipitation evolution through Monday afternoon. As cold front
spreads into the area tonight... Low level theta-e ridge and
steepening mid level lapse rates will result in an axis of
instability extending across northern wisconsin northern michigan.

Weak but persistent moisture convergence along this boundary should
bring the threat of at least scattered elevated convection tonight
to eastern upper and far northern lower michigan. May not see much
activity south of the m-72 corridor initially. This boundary
lingering across the area on Monday will continue the potential for
seeing convection developing along it... Especially tied to the
diurnal heating cycle and perhaps aided by lake breeze development
within what will be a humid air mass. Nam-wrf trying to depict an
mcv associated with anticipated MCS development tonight across iowa
to roll across lower michigan during the afternoon (and provide
another focus for precipitation). While a reasonable idea (the mcv
that is)... Whether such a feature would impact northern lower
depends on how convection evolves upstream overnight. Bottom line
from a precipitation standpoint... Chance scattered pops for the most
part through tonight (eastern upper) and through Monday for northern
lower. Marginal severe risk depicted for day 2 across southwest
quarter of the forecast area not unreasonable given potential
instability and southern edge of stronger flow aloft impinging upon
northern michigan.

As for the pesky cloud cover issues... Not going to be a total debbie
downer on this. Certainly not the most ideal potential eclipse
viewing conditions given the proximity of the lingering front and
potential for "junk" cloud cover. But model mass fields suggest
that there could be some openings here and there... So will be
optimistic that there will be some viewing potential at least early
on prior to afternoon convective cloud development.

Short term (Monday night through Wednesday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday morning...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms with locally heavy
rain possible Monday night (mainly late) into Tuesday morning.

Period of active wx ahead, as we transition from above-normal temps
to cooler wx. Low pressure will rapidly deepen as it crosses the
northern lakes region and heads for quebec Mon night-tue. Very good
chance for associated showers t-storms. Cold front will exit by
early Tue afternoon. Post-frontal airmass will cool us off and dry
us out (mostly).

Monday night Tuesday morning... 500mb heights will be on a steady
fall, as an upper low moves southward into northern ontario. Primary
shortwave trof will move over northern mi Tue afternoon, with the
surface low deepening well ahead of this wave. Spotty convection may
be ongoing Mon evening, the main show will be overnight as the low
level jet ramps up to our S and sw. This will advect a moist and
unstable airmass northward into the central lakes.

But... There are some indications we will see something of a 'split'
around northern mi when it comes to heavier precip. Organized
convection seems most likely to march across southern lower mi in
the late evening overnight hours. This is along the northern
periphery of the deepest instability. The low-level jet will veer
with time, especially overnight, not helping this activity make
northward progress. Meanwhile, low- to mid-level deformation just nw
of the developing surface low will impact upper mi and adjoining
parts of lk superior and northern ontario, very late Monday night
into Tue morning.

Do expect some precip between these two primary areas, and high pops
are still very much justified late Mon night into Tue morning. But
most vigorous convection may well pass to our south, while secondary
area of best QPF impacts eastern upper mi and points north. Given
the above scenario, our svr threat Tue night doesn't appear too
impressive.

A warm night, especially in northern lower. Min temps near 60f
to the upper 60s.

Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday... Low pressure migrates to quebec,
while large high pressure in the plains and prairies eventually heads
toward western superior. Diurnal heating may be enough to produce a
stray post-frontal shower to two Tue afternoon, otherwise the
incoming high will promote a cooling dry trend into Tuesday night. A
spoke of energy rotating around the stacked quebec low will push a
secondary cold front and a band of enhanced moisture on Wednesday. A
few showers could result, especially over eastern upper mi.

Otherwise, Tue afternoon will see decreasing cloud cover, with wed
seeing more Sun than clouds in the majority of northern mi.

Max temps Tue mainly in the 70s. Min temps Tue night near 50f to the
mid 50s. Highs Wed in bit cooler, mid 60s to lower 70s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017
the extended in a word... "uneventful". Broad upper level troughing
will be pulling out Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure
building in for at least the first half of the weekend. The story
will be "the taste of fall"... With very cool readings, especially
overnight lows Wednesday night and Thursday night. Someone in the
favored cold spots of the interior lower peninsula may even see
readings dip below 40 for the first time this season. But even
then, temperatures will be moderating into the weekend (though still
remaining below climo). The latest model runs are starting show the
next weather maker moving in on Sunday, with chance pops as early as
Saturday. However, I really think this might be a little ambitious.

I would favor a mainly dry Saturday into Sunday... And pushing pop's
into late Sunday Monday. Alas, we're talking day 7... And that's a
long way off.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 717 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017
small chances of showers and storms will develop late tonight as a
weak frontal boundary leans into northern michigan. Better chances
of convection will develop late in the day on Monday as a wave
rides NE along the front and thru michigan. Overall conditions
will remainVFR thru the forecast period... Although conditions may
temporarily decrease to MVFR within any heavier
shower thunderstorm activity. SW winds under 10 kts will become
westerly on Monday.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017
lingering gusty south southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold
front will allow for continued small craft advisories within some
lake michigan and whitefish bay nearshore zones. Weak gradient
expected Monday but winds are expected to increase form the
northwest heading into Tuesday which will likely necessitate
another round of small craft headlines.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Monday for lhz347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Monday for lmz341-342.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Monday for lmz344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Monday for lsz321.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Jz
long term... Kb
aviation... Mr
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi67 min S 19 G 23 70°F 68°F4 ft1013.7 hPa (-0.7)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi77 min S 8 G 13 73°F 1013.5 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi77 min SSW 17 G 22 70°F 1013.2 hPa
45020 48 mi17 min S 9.7 G 12 76°F 70°F1 ft62°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi62 minS 310.00 miFair75°F63°F66%1015.6 hPa

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Last 24hrSW5S5S6S4S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8SW8
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1 day agoN4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W5W6SW8W6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.