Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:15PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:03 PM CST (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 3:19AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 828 Pm Cst Tue Dec 18 2018 Two Rivers Wi To Manistee Mi North...
.gale warning in effect until midnight cst tonight...
Rest of tonight..Southwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south to 30 kt. Slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of drizzle overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Chance of drizzle in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..North winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201812191030;;005830 FZUS63 KMKX 190228 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 828 PM CST Tue Dec 18 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of 30.2 inches centered over the Carolinas, stretches north through the eastern Great Lakes. It will drift out over the Atlantic through Wednesday. Meanwhile, weakening low pressure of 29.5 inches will slide to the north of Lake Superior Wednesday night, but a trailing trough of low pressure will drift through Wisconsin and across Lake Michigan into Thursday morning. South to southwest winds behind the departing high and ahead of the approaching low will be strong and gusty into the early morning hours of Wednesday. However, based on limited observations, it appears winds aren't as strong as forecast, though we can rule out gale force gusts through about midnight across the northern part of the lake. Winds will diminish on Wednesday as the trough approaches, then shift to the west on Thursday. Low pressure of 29.1 inches will lift from the Gulf states into upstate New York late by Friday. Strong northerly winds will develop across Lake Michigan as this low moves through the area. Gale force gusts will be possible later Thursday night into Friday night, particularly across the south half of Lake Michigan. Weak low pressure around 29.8 inches will cross the upper Great Lakes over the weekend. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-191030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190333
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1033 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Update
Issued at 907 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
surface high pressure stretches from the far eastern lakes region
down through the appalachians. Broad low pressure is across
central canada. In between, pressure gradient has tightened
considerably across eastern upper and northern lower michigan with
the last several hours, now leading to some rather gusty winds in
spots.

We had quite a bit of lake induced stratocu running up lake
michigan into the u.P. Earlier in the day. But the last bit of
lake induced cloud cover does indeed appear to be rolling up
through parts of eastern upper michigan and largely thinning
(still ovc014 at ery). But aside from the lake stratocu there is
also a fair amount of high cloud cover streaming out of the
midwest and across northern michigan that will continue to do so
through the night into Wednesday.

Rest of tonight, no precipitation anticipated of course. But with
a good amount of high cloud cover streaming through, will call it
partly cloudy overall. Meanwhile, we will continue to see gusty
winds throughout the night in many locations. I've increased
winds gusts a bit accordingly.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 332 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Seasonably mild weather to continue...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: deep layer high pressure and attendant
strong subsidence regime centered right across the great lakes early
this afternoon. Southerly return flow just starting to get better
organized, with warm air advection through the lower levels helping
scatter out much of the earlier cloud cover. Surface temperatures
responding accordingly, with readings pushing up into the 30s,
warmest near and south of grand traverse bay where sunshine started
earlier.

Large scale features remain quite progressive tonight, with current
overhead ridging sliding east, all-the-while next shortwave trough
and developing cold front dig into the northern plains by morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature and cloud trends.

Details: a rather uneventful night expected, as despite gradual
retreat of surface high, the overall atmospheric environment remains
rather dry. Passage of subtle mid level impulse later this afternoon
and early across lake superior does bring a bit better mid level
moisture across eastern upper michigan, but not nearly deep enough
to generate precipitation. Otherwise, increasing higher level clouds
and maintenance of southwest winds warm air advection on backside of
retreating surface high will keep temperatures steady-state or even
rise a bit during the overnight, with readings near lake michigan
likely remaining several degrees above freezing.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 332 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Light rain and or snow showers at times...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure will have retreated to the
east coast by daybreak Wednesday as troughing deepens over the
nation's midsection. Within this longwave troughing, a shortwave
crossing the canadian prairies will induce a clipper system that is
progged to cross ontario Wednesday night-Thursday, dragging a cold
front through the upper great lakes. Meanwhile, an intensifying
southern-stream system will eject from the gulf states through
appalachia by Friday, with impacts expected to largely remain east
of northern michigan.

Primary forecast concerns... Precipitation potential through the
period.

Pretty impressive plume of moisture for mid-december is slated to
cross northern michigan late Wednesday into Wednesday night with
pwats pushing 0.75" (2-3+ standard deviations above the mean).

However, forcing looks rather unimpressive with only a weak
shortwave progged to lift northeast across northern michigan.

Consensus now points to rain showers spreading into eastern upper by
late afternoon, perhaps brushing the tip of the mitt as activity
lifts northeast Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain warm
enough to keep precip all in the form of rain overnight. Expect
shower activity to fill in farther south along the cold front as it
crosses northern michigan during the day Thursday, still in the form
of rain during the day but mixing with snow in the evening as colder
air starts to infiltrate behind the front. Deeper moisture will
progressively strip out from top-down Thursday night, pointing to a
period of light snow showers, drizzle, and freezing drizzle. Not
anticipating anything of impact, however.

Models continue to track farther east with the system lifting
through the appalachians Thursday night into Friday. This would keep
the bulk of associated precip to the east of northern michigan, but
the marginally colder air wrapping in around its backside may
trigger some scattered N nnw flow lake effect snow showers across a
portion of northwest lower and eastern upper. Conditions for lake
effect look marginal at best and are trending less favorable, so not
expecting any accumulation.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 332 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Weak ridging at the surface will cross northern michigan Friday
night into Saturday followed by an influx of colder air Saturday
night. This will kick-start the lake effect machine again heading
into the latter half of the weekend, aided by a shortwave and
clipper system passing through the region. Around an inch or two of
snow accumulation is currently expected, mainly within the W wnw
flow snowbelts. Drier air encroaches during the day Monday, bringing
a gradual end to the lingering lake effect. Greatest uncertainty
during the extended period surrounds a potential system shown by the
ecmwf to pass by to our south on christmas day. Last couple runs
have trended farther south, so will wait to see how this continues
to evolve. Temperatures will trend near or slightly above seasonal
normals through the period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1032 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
vfr conditions anticipated across northern lower michigan tonight
and much of Wednesday. Per apx 00z sounding, strong winds have
developed off the surface and may lead to llws conditions at the
terminal sites tonight into Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, low pressure and attending cold front will develop
in the northern plains and advance into the northern western
great lakes heading into Wednesday night. Model solutions suggest
that lower (MVFR) and mid level cloud cover develops upstream
ahead of this system and spreads into the region starting late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. I'm not entirely
confident that MVFR CIGS develop, or at least develop that
quickly. But erring on the side of caution for now (and for
planning purposes), I have pushed MVFR clouds back into
pln tvc mbl during the afternoon timeframe.

Marine
Issued at 332 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
small craft advisory producing gusty south to southwest winds to
continue across parts of the big waters through Wednesday night.

Winds expected to slacken a bit into Thursday. Passing cold front
and developing low pressure to our southeast looks to bring
another round of advisory conditions to end the week.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lhz345>347.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Thursday for lhz348-349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Thursday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lsz321-322.

Update... Ba
near term... mb
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Ba
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi24 min S 2.9 G 7 37°F 1011.2 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi24 min SSW 12 G 15 37°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi84 min S 7 G 14 37°F 1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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S8
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G10
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G14
W8
G12
W10
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi69 minS 10 G 1610.00 miFair36°F28°F75%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S10
G14
S7S7
G14
S8
G15
S9S6S6S5S6S8S8
G16
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1 day agoW13
G16
W8NW15
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NW9NW10
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N10N7N7N8N6N6NW5NW4CalmNW3N4NE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6S7SW8SW7SW7SW6SW4SW7W4NW13
G18
W12
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.