Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:39PM Friday June 22, 2018 6:04 AM CDT (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 247 Am Cdt Fri Jun 22 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Today..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201806221530;;920631 FZUS63 KLOT 220747 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 247 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.7 inches over central Illinois will move to near Lake Erie on Saturday. Meanwhile, a 30.0 inch ridge of high pressure remains stretched from the northern lakes to New England. Weak low pressure will move across Ontario Saturday and into Quebec Saturday night. A trailing cold front will move south across the region Saturday night with high pressure of 30.2 inches moving across the Great Lakes on Monday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-221530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221046
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
646 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Near term (tonight)
issued at 156 am edt Fri jun 22 2018
impactful weather: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
another quiet early morning. Sfc high pressure extends across the
nrn great lakes, with a stacked low pressure system swirling around
the il mo border. The NRN fringe of the high level cloud shield from
the low pressure is teetering near the m-55 corridor, while all of
the associated showers and storms reside within the WAA moisture and
dpva from SRN lake michigan wi southward. The NRN jet stream is
displaced well north and east of us, which leave NRN michigan in
pretty much zero forcing, as well as in an axis of deeper drier air
that extends back into new england. While winds have decoupled in
many areas leading to good radiational cooling, other areas are
still experiencing an easterly wind which was keeping the bl
somewhat mixed. This has resulted in quite the range in
temperatures, ranging from the middle 40s to the middle 60s. Those
coolest reading in the typically colder low lying areas.

Not a whole lot of change in the ongoing forecast. The high pressure
ridge axis will continue to extend back across the NRN great lakes
through tonight, but will weaken fade with time as the stacked low
pressure slowly meanders NE into dtx by Saturday morning. The better
waa dpva moisture will focus in il oh and the eastern great lakes,
but NRN michigan will get some periodic weaker vort maxes wrap in
from the east while also being in the system's deformation zone.

This is going to result in a gradual approach of periodic light rain
and sprinkles across primarily across NE lower. The NW extent of the
light rain shield is still likely to bring at least some sprinkles
up to the charlevoix, pellston and cheboygan areas. Eastern upper is
not likely to see any rainfall at all. Something else that will not
be around is thunder. There is absolutely no instability CAPE for
nrn michigan, as it all stays well south in in oh. A light QPF event
with maybe around a tenth of an inch near the saginaw bay, with
lesser amounts further north and west.

Skies will increase in cloudiness later today across the SRN cwa,
which will limit the total potential warming, with just higher level
clouds expected to increase further north. Highs today ranging from
75f to 80f west and north in better longer duration sun, to the
upper 60s and lower half of the 70s south and east. Coolest readings
for the lake huron coastal areas as the easterly wind comes in off
the water. Lows tonight in the upper 40s and lower 50s north to the
middle to upper 50s south.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 156 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Shower chances for some this weekend...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: split flow is evident aloft across the CONUS early
this mornign with the primary feature of note looking ahead toward
the weekend continues to revolve around a closed upper level low
spinning across the st. Louis area. The system remains vertically
stacked with a 1002 mb surface reflection, which is anticipated to
slowly meander across the southern great lakes ohio river valley
through Saturday. The deformation axis sits to our south and east
through the day Saturday with a northeast wind ushering in dry air
from ontario resulting in a lack of widespread appreciable rain for
many across northern michigan through the upcoming weekend. As
Saturday's system begins to exit stage right by Saturday afternoon-
evening, focus transitions to a weak shortwave expected to drop
southeastward out on ontario into the upper great lakes during the
day Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops and cloud cover Friday
night through Saturday.

Despite east-northeast winds continuing area-wide Friday night into
Saturday, scattered rain shower chances are expected to increase
from south to north across northern lower as low pressure gradually
approaches the southern great lakes resulting in a slight uptick in
mid-level moisture. The expectation remains that much of northern
michigan will be hard-pressed to see any widespread or appreciable
rain from this event as guidance ensemble means continue to suggest
that the bulk of the forecast area will receive a tenth of an inch
or less of QPF through Saturday.

Aforementioned weak shortwave troughing is progged to arrive across
northern michigan on Sunday... Well behind Saturday's system expected
to be situated near the eastern seaboard. While overall deep layer
moisture and synoptic support remains fairly anemic, a few
additional showers could dot the map... Primarily across interior
sections of northern lower. Otherwise, many are expected to remain
dry on Sunday.

Extensive cloud cover across northern lower on Saturday will have
its effects felt as high temperatures struggle to reach the upper
60s for many (mid 70s across eastern upper). Partly sunny skies
return by Sunday afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the
low-mid 70s area-wide.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 156 am edt Fri jun 22 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Canadian high pressure gradually sags into the region Sunday
night Monday through midweek with little in the way of sensible
weather anticipated. The next threat for widespread rain holds off
until late Tuesday night-Wednesday as an area of low pressure treks
across the central plains towards the upper great lakes. Many
details with regards to timing, qpf, and thunder chances to be
ironed out in the coming days.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 646 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Vfr...

the pressure gradient loosens up today as sfc high pressure exits
east, while a low pressure system slowly lifts to near detroit
Saturday morning. Mid and high level clouds will gradually increase
over the TAF period, with a chance for MVFR CIGS and areas of light
rain and sprinkles to sneak into the airports toward daybreak. There
is a decent enough amount of uncertainty to not include this in the
forecasts attm. It is expected for these conditions to develop more
so Saturday morning.

Light easterly winds overnight, getting a touch breezy again today,
especially in the afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 156 am edt Fri jun 22 2018
the pressure gradient loosens up today as sfc high pressure exits
east, while a low pressure system slowly lifts to near detroit
Saturday morning, then through the eastern great lakes and over into
new england Saturday night and Sunday. A general easterly wind
turning light north over this time. No advisory level speeds
anticipated, but could see some decent gustiness funneling through
the straits again today. Periodic light rain and sprinkles are
expected across primarily lake huron tonight into Saturday as the
low pressure system swings through SRN michigan.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi45 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 45°F1012.8 hPa49°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi85 min ENE 6 G 7 58°F 1013.2 hPa
45183 34 mi35 min N 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 58°F1014.3 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi85 min NE 7 G 9.9 56°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair57°F36°F46%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4E4E5NE5NE5NE6NE7E6N8N6N7N5NE5NE5NE5E5E6E6E5E6E8
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1 day agoCalmCalmW3W6W7W4W6W7W6W5N6N3N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE5CalmCalm
2 days agoE6SE4SE4E5SE6S3CalmCalmNW4NW4N6N6NE5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.