Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:54PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 12:26 PM CDT (17:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 12:55AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 856 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday evening...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt during the evening, then becoming southwest gales to 40 kt overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Friday..West gales to 40 kt becoming northwest gales to 35 kt. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201809192030;;883157 FZUS63 KLOT 191356 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 856 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.1 inches over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will gradually shift northeast tonight. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains tonight and then lift northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday evening. The low will track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night while dragging a strong cold front across the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region Saturday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-192030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 191333
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
933 am edt Wed sep 19 2018

Update
Issued at 933 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
low stratus is hanging tough over most of our CWA this morning.

Even some of the breaks over far NE lower michigan have tended to
fill back in over the past hour or so as shallow low level
moisture remains trapped below the inversion. Still expect these
low CIGS will gradually lift and eventually develop some breaks as
daytime heating mixing strengthens as we head into the afternoon
hours. But overall... Expect these breaks will no preclude a mainly
cloudy day as additional mid high clouds begin to move into
northern michigan in advance of a warm front lifting toward our
region. Still cannot rule out a stray shower late in the day as
deeper moisture begins to arrive across our SW cwa... With better
precip chances still expected to arrive tonight.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 342 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: increasing rain chances with a small
chance of thunderstorms tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
zonal upper level flow was aligned across the nc plains and great
lakes early this morning, while shortwave troughing was pressing
through the western conus. Low pressure has developed ahead of this
troughing in wyoming, and a frontal boundary extended eastward
through the central plains through just south of the great lakes.

Patches of showers and thunderstorms were noted along and north of
this frontal boundary, within deeper moisture that was being
advected in northward via a LLJ punching through the central plains
and mississippi valley. Forcing was particularly stronger through the
dakotas, where there was also upper divergence from a 100+kt jet. In
nrn michigan some drier low level air was seeping down into the
region, especially downsloping off the higher terrain of ontario.

This has resulted in some clearing at times in eastern upper, but
nocturnal cooling of the bl has taken over most areas, helping
redevelop expand low level clouds underneath a low level inversion.

The expansion of clouds was also a likely result of shallow overlake
instability.

The cloud forecast will be difficult. The current low level clouds
will likely persist into the morning, but there are plenty of
signals that the trying to seep in from the north, combined with
diurnal mixing, will allow for maybe some sunshine later this
morning into this afternoon. Thickening clouds to occur tonight, as
the aforementioned upper jet and divergence aloft work into the
great lakes, and a redeveloped LLJ results in strengthening theta-e
advection, as the frontal boundary to our south surges northward
into the western great lakes and lower michigan. This will result in
an expanding area of showers that is expected to make it into nrn
michigan, particularly overnight tonight. Some thunderstorms will
also be possible in NRN lower, but mucapes are not impressive in
most of the data.

High temperatures a little uncertain considering the fuzzy cloud
forecast. At least some sunshine will take us into the middle 60s to
lower 70s. Lows tonight most likely not falling out of the 50s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 340 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: chance of thunderstorms, primarily
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night... Perhaps including an
isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

Pattern forecast: primary focus through the short term forecast
period will revolve around a well-defined upper level wave and
attendant developing area of low pressure across the central plains
on Wednesday. This system is expected to strengthen as it treks
northeastward across the upper mississippi valley far western great
lakes with a warm front swinging northward across the forecast area
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Northern michigan is expected to
lie in the warm sector by Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening
prior to a cold front racing eastward late Thursday night Friday
morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops and associated
thunderstorm potential (severe threat?) Thursday through Friday.

By Thursday morning, isentropically driven showers are expected to
be ongoing across the forecast area... Most widespread north of m-72
through the straits as the system's aforementioned warm front is
situated west to east across central lower michigan. Warm front will
progress northward throughout the remainder of the morning into the
afternoon hours, resulting in a gradual northward shift in the
steadiest heaviest precipitation to across the straits eastern upper
before the front eventually clears north of the u.P. By Thursday
evening. As such, much of northern lower will lie within the warm
sector during the day Thursday. Deep southerly return flow will aid
in increasing deep layer moisture across the area... Evident by pws
progged between 1.75-2.00 inches (+2 to 3 sd). Guidance continues to
suggest upwards of 400-800 j kg of MLCAPE developing across northern
lower Thursday afternoon with additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing at times, albeit in much more of a hit or
miss fashion. Given bulk shear values upwards of 50-55 kts across
the area, any thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Thursday
night will have the potential to develop sustained updrafts and the
potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail... Meshing well with
spc's latest thoughts in their day 2 severe weather outlook. The
aforementioned cold front is expected to race east across the area
Friday morning (generally between 12-15z), bringing another round of
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms to the entire area.

Lingering moisture and strong cold air advection behind the front
through the day Friday may allow occasional shower activity to
continue off and on, especially downwind of lake michigan and
superior as lake processes may even play contributor (h8 temps
falling to +2 to 4 c by 00z Sat with delta TS near 20 c).

All in all, this system will bring much needed rainfall to northern
michigan with some locations seeing upwards of 1-1.50 inches of new
rainfall between late Wednesday night through Thursday night
(primarily across the northern one-third of the forecast
area... Lesser amounts south). Wpc has locations across the tip of
the mitt and eastern upper highlighted in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall bounded by a broader area southward towards m-72
in a marginal risk. Given the recent lack of rainfall over the last
10-14 days, not expecting any flooding issues despite possible
locally heavy rainfall as any showers or storms should be very
efficient rain producers.

Lastly, given the tightening pressure gradient across the great
lakes region, winds will become noticeably gusty, primarily Thursday
afternoon through the day Friday when gusts of 30-40 mph will be
common... Perhaps approaching 40 mph along the great lakes coasts.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 340 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: perhaps a bit of patchy frost
Saturday and Sunday morning.

The aforementioned system discussed above departs well off to the
east Friday night with high pressure and much drier air moving into
the region providing a return to precipitation-free conditions and
seasonable temperatures. There's the potential for even a bit of
patchy frost across the typically cooler interior locations both
Saturday and Sunday mornings given expected high pressure overhead
and resultant mostly clear skies light winds.

Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to become active once again as
another area of low pressure develops across the plains with its
eyes set on the great lakes during the early to middle portions of
next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 641 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
tough cig forecast. MVFR stratus has expanded across most all of
nrn michigan through the night. This low level moisture is stuck
underneath an inversion, but there are several indicators of the
MVFR mixing out late morning early afternoon, while periods of
higher level cloud passes by overhead. Maybe a few light showers
can work into NRN michigan today, but the main area of showers and
perhaps a few storms rolls in late tonight, while low pressure and
a warm front lift into the western great lakes.

Marine
Issued at 340 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
weak high pressure drifts across eastern canada today, while low
pressure develops into the central plains and upper mississippi
valley tonight. A warm front surges into the region late tonight
into Thursday with showers and some thunderstorms expanding across
the great lakes during this time, and through Thursday night. Winds
really start ramping up Thursday night as low pressure deepens and
presses through the NRN great lakes. Gale force winds are possible,
mainly over lake michigan and whitefish bay, and likely over most of
the nearshore waters into Friday behind the passage of the system's
cold front. An initial gale watch has been hoisted for lake michigan
and whitefish bay.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
lmz341-342-344>346.

Ls... Gale watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
lsz321.

Update... Mr
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi36 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 60°F 67°F1 ft1019.7 hPa52°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi46 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 1020 hPa
45183 34 mi56 min S 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 67°F1021.3 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi46 min E 4.1 G 8 62°F 1019.6 hPa
45020 48 mi26 min N 1.9 G 3.9 59°F 70°F50°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi46 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 58°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
NE3
N5
N4
N5
NE3
NE3
E5
G8
NE5
NE10
G15
NE12
G15
NE15
G19
NE15
NE13
G16
N12
G15
N9
G12
N11
N11
NE13
N10
NW6
G9
N7
N6
NW3
NW4
G7
1 day
ago
S9
G12
S7
G10
S8
G13
N13
G16
N12
N9
G13
N5
G8
N6
NE3
2 days
ago
SE4
SE6
SE6
SE6
SE10
SE11
G15
SE10
G13
SW7
SW8
SW7
G12
SW8
G11
S10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi31 minESE 310.00 miOvercast62°F53°F73%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrN6NW4N5N3N5N4N4NE3CalmN3N3N4N5N3E4CalmN4CalmE4E7CalmCalmE3Calm
1 day agoSW9S7SW9S3S5SW4CalmN8
G14
N7
G14
N12
G19
NE5N10
G17
NE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N5N5N5
2 days agoSW6SW4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmS6S6S7S4SW5S8SW8S6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.