Tuesday, March26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:11PM Tuesday March 26, 2019 5:49 AM CDT (10:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:41AMMoonset 10:14AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:201903261515;;357046 Fzus63 Kmkx 260813 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 313 Am Cdt Tue Mar 26 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.5 inches over wisconsin this morning will move into ohio tonight, and further to the east on Wednesday. Southerly winds will pick up on Wednesday, between the departing high and the approaching low pressure of 29.5 inches, which is expected to move north of lake superior Wednesday night. Wind gusts may approach gale force later Wednesday into Wednesday night, mainly over northern portions of lake michigan. Winds will be lighter Thursday into Friday, as weak high pressure of 30.2 inches moves through the northern great lakes. Stronger north winds will be possible Friday night into Saturday, as low pressure passes by to the south of lake michigan. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-261515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 313 am cdt Tue mar 26 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday night..South gales to 35 kt becoming southwest. Chance of rain overnight. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..North gales to 35 kt increasing to gales to 40 kt. Chance of snow. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 261037
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
637 am edt Tue mar 26 2019

Near term (today and tonight)
issued at 144 am edt Tue mar 26 2019
high impact weather: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
all quiet again out there early this morning. High pressure was
working into the western great lakes with a very dry wnw NW flow
holding firm over NRN michigan (pwats < 0.15"). There was not a
cloud in sight and winds at the sfc and just aloft were weakening
with time. This was resulting in increasingly better radiational
cooling conditions. Temperatures were in the mid teens to low 20s,
but am expecting a quicker fall toward daybreak as winds go
calm near calm. Am expecting temperatures to bottom out in the 10f
to 15f most areas, with lower 20s to mid 20s in some coastal areas.

Another 24 hrs of very quiet weather. A shallow mid level ridge will
move in over NRN michigan today, as the sfc high pressure moves
overhead this morning, then into the eastern great lakes late this
afternoon. Pwats remain less than 0.25", increasing a little, due to
some high level cloud arriving late today. Winds go light by
daybreak, then back out of the SW today. That's about it for today.

Highs will get into the upper 30s in eastern upper and 40f to 45f in
nrn lower. The mid level ridge presses east tonight, making way for
a weak shortwave trough tonight, while the sfc high moves off to the
eastern conus. This shortwave trough and increasing southerly flow
will bring in some added upper level clouds this evening, then some
possible low to mid level clouds overnight for mainly NRN lake
michigan and eastern upper, when pwats increase to around 0.40"
there. However, still no precipitation expected. Lows tonight will
not be as cool under this scenario, with readings in the lower half
of the 20s most areas.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 144 am edt Tue mar 26 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: surface high pressure will gradually
press eastward tonight into Wednesday allowing warm air and moisture
advection to ramp up ahead of the next approaching system. Deepening
low pressure is expected to track from southern saskatchewan
manitoba to near james bay Wednesday night into Thursday, which will
drag a cold front from northwest to southeast across northern
michigan during the day Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: moderating temperatures.

Precipitation chances late Wednesday through Thursday.

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected through much of
the day Wednesday with the only exception coming across eastern
upper and the tip of the mitt as isentropic ascent increases in
conjunction with a weak shortwave crossing the region. Limited deep
layer moisture will limit the overall rain shower coverage as low
pops gradually expand southward across the remainder of northern
lower Wednesday night through midday Thursday in conjunction with
the aforementioned frontal boundary sagging southward.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon topping out in the mid-40s
north of the bridge to the upper 40s-low 50s across northern lower.

Similar midday high temperatures Thursday ahead of the frontal
passage before temperatures gradually cool Thursday afternoon.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 144 am edt Tue mar 26 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

High pressure settles in across the region late Thursday through
Friday before attention turns to potential low pressure development
that's expected to eject lee of the rockies before trekking east-
northeastward Friday night into Saturday. This system has the
potential for a more widespread precipitation event across northern
michigan, but low confidence in precipitation type and amounts
continues given disagreement with respect to the overall strength
and track of the system. Beyond that system, cooler air brief dives
into the region... Perhaps bringing a bit of lake effect development
to the area on Sunday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 635 am edt Tue mar 26 2019
high pressure overhead will move over to the eastern CONUS late
tonight. Dry air will remain in place withVFR conditions over
the entire TAF period. Dry air will be in place for plentiful
sunshine today and just some increased higher level clouds
tonight. The pressure gradient starts to tighten out ahead of a
warm front working into the plains, but no significant gusting is
expected. There could however, be some low end llws developing
late tonight, and decided to put it in the pln forecast. No
precipitation.

Marine
Issued at 144 am edt Tue mar 26 2019
high pressure overhead will move off the atlantic coast by Wednesday
night, with NRN michigan within a tightening pressure gradient.

Gusty, advisory level southerly winds and the next chance of rain
develop Wednesday into Wednesday night over most nearshore waters.

This will occur out ahead of an advancing cold front that crosses
Thursday, and switches winds out of the nw, where there is also a
possibility of additional advisory level winds in some areas.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi70 min SSW 1 G 2.9 26°F 1029.5 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi70 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 22°F 1029.5 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi70 min Calm G 1 20°F 1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair20°F12°F73%1030.1 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE4NE7E6NE6N7N7N8N7NW7N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N6N10
G19
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N4N5N6N8N6CalmNE5NE4NE5E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW5SW7S10SW11
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SW4SW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.