Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:15PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:41AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 357 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet early in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. A chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LHZ362 Expires:201709260800;;923054 FZUS63 KDTX 251958 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.10 inches, will hold across the central and eastern Great Lakes through Tuesday. The next low pressure system and cold front, 29.80 inches, is then due to cross the region Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Cooler high pressure then follows the front Thursday also followed quickly by another cold front on Friday. LHZ362-363-260800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 252333
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
733 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Still hot Tuesday...

high pressure will hold on for a little bit longer across northern
michigan bringing more unseasonably warm conditions through
Tuesday. Perhaps some patchy fog out there again tonight,
otherwise mostly clear skies expected. More record high
temperatures will likely be broken or challenged
Tuesday... Especially at glr, tvc and pln. An approaching cold
front will result in low end shower or thunderstorm chances later
Tuesday afternoon across far western sections of the forecast area
(though there isn't a lot of CAPE to work with per model
soundings). Lows tonight in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs
Tuesday ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Snapping back to autumn reality...

high impact weather potential... Slight chance of a thunderstorm or
two Tuesday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Flattening upper ridge quickly erodes as
it gets shunted east Tuesday evening. An open mid-level wave lifting
through ontario and a corresponding surface low tracking through
lake superior will push a potent cold front through northern
michigan Tuesday night. This front will usher in a sharply colder
airmass with temperatures running a good 20+ degrees cooler than the
current warm stretch (but near normal for late september). Broad
upper troughing will then remain overhead through Thursday, despite
a surface ridge nosing into northern michigan from Wednesday through
Thursday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... Chance for a bit of much needed rainfall
for some locations Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Still looking like a decent chance for a bit of rainfall with the
cold front's passage Tuesday night. However, not all of northern
michigan is expected to see scattered showers, and those that do
(mainly eastern upper and tip of the mitt) will likely not receive
much (less than a quarter inch). Models continue to show a ribbon of
higher pwats ahead of the front, but that is mainly tied to the
anomalous surface dewpoints initially in the lower 60s (but dropping
quickly behind the front). Forecast soundings actually reveal the
depth of moisture is not too great and doesn't last for more than a
few hours before the column begins drying out in the mid levels.

Forcing along the front and from the shortwave, though not
particularly strong, looks better supported near and north of the
straits. Very marginal instability along and ahead of the front,
perhaps enough to support just a few rumbles of thunder through
around midnight.

Perhaps a lingering shower or two over eastern upper Wednesday
morning, but otherwise clouds should gradually thin out, giving way
to partly sunny skies as high pressure ridge noses into the area.

Clouds will gradually increase on Thursday ahead of the next
shortwave and a reinforcing cold front dropping in from the
northwest. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers heading
into Thursday night.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
as maria continues to lift off over the atlantic, the downstream
blockiness will wane allowing a much more progressive pattern over
the CONUS than we have seen the past few days. The troughing that
has been persistent over the western CONUS will begin working into
the region by mid-week and continue into the weekend. This will get
temperatures closer to normal levels, perhaps even a bit below
normal by Friday. H8 temperatures could be sufficiently cold enough
to drive some lake effect rain showers starting Thursday night and
through the day Friday. High pressure will again build into the
region over the weekend, with temperatures rising through the
weekend and into the beginning of next week when we could see some
areas nearing 70 degrees again, about 10 degrees above normal but
not to the extent we are currently experiencing.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 733 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
overallVFR conditions continue across northern lower
michigan... Tonight through Tuesday. Likely to see some fog once
again later this evening and overnight... And likely to impact the
typical terminal sites (pln mbl).

On Tuesday...VFR weather continues. Cold front will finally make
inroads into the western great lakes through the day and cross
northern lower michigan Tuesday night. A few showers storms will
be possible late in the afternoon evening. But lowering CIGS (MVFR
and possible ifr) are likely Tuesday night... Beyond the current
taf forecast period.

Marine
Issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Tuesday as
high pressure moves slowly off to our east. Chances of precip
will increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front
sweeps across michigan. Northwest winds will increase late
Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the front with SCA gusts
possible on some nearshore zones.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... As
short term... Mk
long term... Am
aviation... Ba
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 44 mi92 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 70°F 68°F1 ft1014.2 hPa (-0.8)
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi52 min S 6 G 8.9 74°F 1014.7 hPa67°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi32 min SSE 5.1 G 6 73°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi28 minSSE 410.00 miFair74°F65°F76%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW4S5E3SE5SE5SE5S9S8S6SE3
1 day agoSW4SW4SW3CalmSW4SW6SW5CalmW6S3SW4CalmCalmS8SW6SW8
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2 days agoS6S6CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW6SW5SW6W8
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S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.