Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:47PM Monday March 27, 2017 8:20 PM EDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:17AMMoonset 6:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 342 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening. Rain and snow likely early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow likely early in the morning...then a chance of rain and snow until early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then backing to the west in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain and snow early in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
LHZ362 Expires:201703280815;;172507 FZUS63 KDTX 271942 GLFLH OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE HURON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 342 PM EDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OFF SHORE ON LAKE HURON WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...AVERAGING 29.80 INCHES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...30.50...CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LHZ362-363-280815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 271835
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
235 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 229 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Slow improvement...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Upper flow is fairly zonal but wavy, but
parade of upper lows continues to move across the middle of the us.

Latest is over mo this afternoon. At the surface, low over
se ontario, with another over the lower midwest. High pressure in
manitoba.

Primary forecast concerns... Concerns for tonight include how
dense the fog gets and how fast clearing occurs from the north.

High in manitoba continues to slowly drop SE and will increasingly
influence our weather over the next 48 hours. Expect low clouds
to persist and fog to reform again after dark tonight as only slow
erosion of low level moisture continues. However, by daybreak
there could be some breaks in the clouds across the up. Conditions
for Tuesday will improve quickly in the morning as the high
inches closer.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 229 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Quiet Wednesday before rain chances return Thursday...

high impact weather potential... None.

High pressure transiting hudson bay will extend ridging into the
great lakes region at mid-week. This will provide a welcome period
of quiet wx and at least some sunshine. However, things start
downhill again beginning thu, as a southern stream closed low ejects
from the southern rockies. Associated precip may start to push into
southern sections on Thursday, and being on the northern periphery
of the precip shield, this precip might not be only rain. Precip
trends are the main concern.

Tue night thru Wed night... Quiet, with a 500mb shortwave ridge axis
moving overhead late wed. Shallow cool air will be pushing into the
region on NE 1000-850mb flow, with 905mb temps to -8c. That will try
to generate some lake clouds, especially in NE lower mi, though a
dry airmass and only weak (less than 10kt) onshore flow will hinder
that process. Still, expect no worse than partly cloudy skies for
tue night/wed (mainly in NE lower mi), with plenty of locales mostly
clear. On Wed night, cirrus and eventually mid clouds will be
thickening from SW to ne, as stronger warm advection shifts into the
mid ms valley and SW great lakes. There is excellent agreement that
any precip holds off, thanks to dry air between 900 and 700mb.

Min temps both nights mainly in the mid 20s to around 30f. MAX temps
wed held back by a coolish airmass, so only near 40 to the mid 40s.

Thu... Models still have considerable latitudinal spread as to where
the ejecting system will be going, but less so than 12 hours ago.

Nam/gfs still favor a more southern track, edging precip into
southern sections. ECMWF lifts the system more ne-ward, with precip
overspreading most of northern mi as the day proceeds. However,
brand-new 12z euro has trended southward. Will keep things middle-of-
the-road for now until further confidence/clarification is gained.

The gradual ne-ward development of the cold conveyor belt will
result in pops expanding northward into northern lower mi during the
day. Likely pops are in order in the extreme south in the afternoon.

Prime determinant of p-type will be the depth of a surface-based
warm layer. That favors mostly rain for most of thu. If precip gets
started early enough in the morning in southern sections, things
could start as snow before diurnal heating kicks in. Similarly, some
snowflakes could mix in toward dusk over eastern upper and far
northern lower mi, if precip gets that far north. No accums either
way.

Max temps rather cool, near 40f to the lower 40s.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 229 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017
surface will move up the ohio valley Thu night into Friday, with us
still on the northern periphery of the precip shield. This precip
will tend to mix with and turn back over to snow with loss of
heating Thu night, and small accums are feasible, mainly in northern
lower mi. By Friday, the most widespread precip should be to our s
and e, though chancy pops will linger.

Wnw flow then takes hold aloft, with an occasional weak clipper
passing to our north. Chance for mixed precip will be seen in some
areas on Sat night, and perhaps again on Monday. Otherwise, the rest
of the extended looks uneventful, with temps near or slightly above
normal (which is still only in the low/mid 40s for highs).

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 126 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017
ifr and occasional MVFR conditions will continue through around
midnight across northern lower mi. Low clouds will persist through
the day and overnight. Visibilities will improve today but then
drop after sunset again. The worse visibilities will be across
the interior portions of northern lower. At the major airports,
expect mainly MVFR conditions by daybreak Tuesday withVFR
expected by mid to late morning Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 229 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017
generally light winds expected over the next 24 to 48 hours as
high pressure builds into the area. Light northerly winds will
continue into Wednesday before winds shift to a more ne/e
direction.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Kjf
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Kjf
marine... Kjf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi51 min N 7 G 8.9 40°F 1013.3 hPa37°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi31 min NNW 6 G 8.9 40°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi27 minENE 32.50 miUnknown Precip37°F36°F97%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmSW3CalmCalmSW5CalmSW3W4NE6CalmCalmE4CalmCalm
1 day agoNE9E10NE14
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NE7NE10E6E6E7E6E5E6E5E6E6E5E5CalmNE5E5E3Calm
2 days agoN6NE8NE9NE10NE11NE6NE10NE8NE8NE11NE11NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.