Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:02PM Saturday July 21, 2018 11:12 PM EDT (03:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 12:43AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 948 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers early in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the evening...then veering to the southeast in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west early in the evening...then veering to the north in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ362 Expires:201807220815;;851132 FZUS63 KDTX 220148 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure, averaging 29.60 inches, will continue to slowly drift southeastward across lower Michigan tonight and into the northern Ohio River Valley by Sunday. As the center of this low settles south of the Ohio River late Sunday, a secondary low will be pulled northwest to around Lake Huron. This low will then stall over the area early next week as it steadily dissipates. LHZ362-363-220815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220138
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
938 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Update
Issued at 938 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
a soggy evening across northern mi. Most of the rain is now
stratiform in nature, but some convective elements are still seen,
especially approaching iosco co from the se. The latter was still
electrically active as it passed by the thumb, so there is
potential for a stray ltg strike over the next 1-2 hours down
there. Otherwise, as instability wanes and as the stacked low
continues to moves se-ward into the oh valley, precip will tend to
become less widespread overnight. Some tweaks to precip coverage,
especially increasing early on, otherwise no major changes.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 341 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Showers and some thunder through tonight...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon composite analysis reveals
our slow moving stacked low over the michigan ohio indiana borders
area. Modest upper jet streak stretches up the east side of the
low from eastern ohio up through lake huron NE lower michigan
providing some upper level divergence forcing across northern
michigan. Deformation forcing along the northern side of the
stacked low also coming into play. And despite the cooler surface
temperatures and moist atmosphere, SPC mesoanalysis continues to
show around 1000 j kg MUCAPE across northern michigan, and upward
of 500 j kg MLCAPE owing to some steeper low level lapse rates
across the region. End result, clusters of showers and a few
thunderstorms continue to rotate westward through northern
michigan.

Tonight: periods of showers and some thunder will continue to rotate
through the region as the parent stacked low slowly works down into
the ohio valley. Severe weather potential remains low owing to
minimal vertical shear profiles, modest instability (for hail
potential) and minimal downdraft cape. But as we've seen, some
locally heavy rainfall can be expected.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 341 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Drying out or staying damp?...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Sunday morning, the models suggest that,
like this morning, the rain is at a minimum, and then, with heating,
more showers begin to form during the afternoon. The GFS continues
the rain showers into Monday morning with the ECMWF and SREF keeping
things a little drier, and then backing rain into the NE lower
during Monday morning before drying the region out Monday night.

Primary forecast concerns... With the models are now taking the
coastal low (sfc) system that fires up along the nc coast, and
brings it up though pennsylvania, and into georgian bay, and
splitting the 500 mb low into two centers on Sunday. If this is the
case, then it would be safe to say, that the rain shown by the gfs,
sref, and ECMWF are right. However, this sfc low looks a little too
compact, which would, to me, look like some feedback that all of the
models are keying in on. Am not convinced that this system is right,
and that the 500 mb low remains in the vicinity of the upper great
lakes and ohio valley for an extra day. However, if it is right,
then maybe we can get some extra rain to help ease the dryness that
has been affecting michigan for the past month.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 341 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Around normal temperatures, give or take, periodic dryness...

extended (Tuesday through Saturday)... Once the 500 mb cutoff low
moves out of the region, then the jet descends into the upper great
lakes through the rest of the week, giving us a somewhat zonal,
progressive pattern. This could mean 12-24 hours of chance pops and
then dryness and then back again, into the weekend. This pattern
would give us temperatures that would start out above normal fall
below, and by the weekend, begin to rebound. There is low confidence
on the forecasts through the next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 732 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
low pressure is a bit south of fwa, and will move slowly se
toward the ohio valley. This system is continuing to send showers
and a few rumbles of thunder into northern mi, though precip
coverage will decrease beginning late tonight. Another resurgence
of showers into NE lower mi expected Sunday afternoon. A mix of
MVFR toVFR CIGS is expected tonight, with mostlyVFR on Sunday.

Restrictions will be most common at tvc mbl.

Ne to N winds up to 10kt.

Marine
Issued at 341 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
tonight through Monday... As the main sfc low center drops south and
east of the upper great lakes, the northeast wind continues, with
the strongest winds in lake michigan, bordering on small craft
conditions tonight, and diminishing through the night. Winds look
like they pick up for a time Sunday afternoon as the winds turn
north, and we get borderline small craft along the lake huron shore
from the coastal convergence. However, the low looks to move on
Sunday night and Monday allowing the winds to diminish to below
small craft overnight and through the day on Monday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 44 mi82 min E 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 63°F1 ft1012.9 hPa (+1.3)
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi42 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 68°F 1013.1 hPa65°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi32 min NE 5.1 G 6 69°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi77 minNE 94.00 miHeavy Rain68°F66°F95%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7E4SE6E7E8E7E6E6E7E8E8SE9SE9
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1 day agoS6S4S5S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SE6SE9SE9SE7SE13
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW3SW5SW8SW7SW6S6S8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.