Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harrisville, MI
May 13, 2024 4:13 PM EDT (20:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 9:36 AM Moonset 12:59 AM |
LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 334 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight - .then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening - .then scattered showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the morning - .then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the southeast until early evening - .then backing to the east in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 131917 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 317 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and storms along M-72 and south into this evening.
- Patchy frost possible Tue night and Wed night.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Northern stream shortwave troughing will continue to slide from Ontario/far northern Great Lakes over Quebec Tuesday. Meanwhile, a stronger southern stream wave will work from the southern Great Plains across the lower Mississippi Valley/southeast CONUS. A stalled front draped across mid-Michigan will slowly sag south tonight into Tuesday as a broad cyclone supported by aforementioned southern stream troughing treks across the mid-Mississippi Valley into Tuesday evening. Surface high pressure will build near Hudson Bay through the period, nosing down into the Great Lakes by Tuesday.
Forecast Details:
Scattered showers/storms along M-72 and south into this evening -- As the previously mentioned front slowly works further south across the middle of the state, additional scattered showers and storms are expected along and south of the M-72 corridor into this evening.
Brief heavy downpours, lightning, gusty winds, and potential for small hail are the primary concerns with any storms given meager instability and weak deep-layer wind shear in place. The best chance for any strong storm will be close to Saginaw Bay. Severe storms are not expected. Otherwise, sunny skies and quiet weather are in store for northern Michigan Tuesday as high pressure builds in.
Northeasterly low-level flow will usher in some slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s for most interior areas. Cooler highs near 60 are anticipated near the lakeshores.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Pattern/synopsis: A nearly zonal flow aloft with weak surface high pressure in place Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Low amplitude troughing along with weak surface low pressure then move in later Thursday into at least Friday. Uncertainty over the pattern evolution after that for the upcoming weekend.
Forecast: Quiet weather in order through at least Thursday morning from the combination of nearly zonal flow aloft and weak surface high pressure. This is expected to result in generally warm days and chilly nights. Could even see some frost, especially in low lying spots for Tuesday and/or Wednesday nights due to light winds and mostly clear skies promoting decent radiational cooling conditions.
Shower chances then return at some point late Thursday with continued shower chances through at least Friday. Pattern evolution after that is in question with a general zonal flow likely returning. Extended guidance varies on whether or not short waves move through this flow over the weekend which will determine the timing/extent of any shower chances. Wouldn't cancel any weekend plans just yet as there is still plenty of time to hopefully discern how this all plays out over the next few days. High temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages through the work week and possibly a few degrees above this weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
VFR conditions are expected across most northern Michigan TAF sites through the issuance period. The exception may be CIU where relatively shallow FG/BR may form late tonight/early Tuesday morning should weak winds materialize. Otherwise, BKN/OVC clouds will gradually work south of the area tonight, leaving clear/sunny skies in place for Tuesday. Northwest winds around 5-10 kts this afternoon will turn to north/north-northeast winds tonight and Tuesday. Shower chances will continue in the vicinity of mbL into this evening before tapering off tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 317 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered showers and storms along M-72 and south into this evening.
- Patchy frost possible Tue night and Wed night.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Northern stream shortwave troughing will continue to slide from Ontario/far northern Great Lakes over Quebec Tuesday. Meanwhile, a stronger southern stream wave will work from the southern Great Plains across the lower Mississippi Valley/southeast CONUS. A stalled front draped across mid-Michigan will slowly sag south tonight into Tuesday as a broad cyclone supported by aforementioned southern stream troughing treks across the mid-Mississippi Valley into Tuesday evening. Surface high pressure will build near Hudson Bay through the period, nosing down into the Great Lakes by Tuesday.
Forecast Details:
Scattered showers/storms along M-72 and south into this evening -- As the previously mentioned front slowly works further south across the middle of the state, additional scattered showers and storms are expected along and south of the M-72 corridor into this evening.
Brief heavy downpours, lightning, gusty winds, and potential for small hail are the primary concerns with any storms given meager instability and weak deep-layer wind shear in place. The best chance for any strong storm will be close to Saginaw Bay. Severe storms are not expected. Otherwise, sunny skies and quiet weather are in store for northern Michigan Tuesday as high pressure builds in.
Northeasterly low-level flow will usher in some slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s for most interior areas. Cooler highs near 60 are anticipated near the lakeshores.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
Pattern/synopsis: A nearly zonal flow aloft with weak surface high pressure in place Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Low amplitude troughing along with weak surface low pressure then move in later Thursday into at least Friday. Uncertainty over the pattern evolution after that for the upcoming weekend.
Forecast: Quiet weather in order through at least Thursday morning from the combination of nearly zonal flow aloft and weak surface high pressure. This is expected to result in generally warm days and chilly nights. Could even see some frost, especially in low lying spots for Tuesday and/or Wednesday nights due to light winds and mostly clear skies promoting decent radiational cooling conditions.
Shower chances then return at some point late Thursday with continued shower chances through at least Friday. Pattern evolution after that is in question with a general zonal flow likely returning. Extended guidance varies on whether or not short waves move through this flow over the weekend which will determine the timing/extent of any shower chances. Wouldn't cancel any weekend plans just yet as there is still plenty of time to hopefully discern how this all plays out over the next few days. High temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages through the work week and possibly a few degrees above this weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
VFR conditions are expected across most northern Michigan TAF sites through the issuance period. The exception may be CIU where relatively shallow FG/BR may form late tonight/early Tuesday morning should weak winds materialize. Otherwise, BKN/OVC clouds will gradually work south of the area tonight, leaving clear/sunny skies in place for Tuesday. Northwest winds around 5-10 kts this afternoon will turn to north/north-northeast winds tonight and Tuesday. Shower chances will continue in the vicinity of mbL into this evening before tapering off tonight.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI | 44 mi | 44 min | SSW 1.9G | 46°F | 43°F | 29.76 | 44°F |
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Gaylord, MI,
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