Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suttons Bay, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:38PM Friday September 21, 2018 11:37 AM EDT (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:28PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1008 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..West wind up to 30 knots becoming northwest early in the evening. Gusts up to 40 knots. Isolated showers in the late morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 8 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201809212200;;985438 FZUS53 KAPX 211408 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1008 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-212200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suttons Bay, MI
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location: 44.99, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211507
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1107 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Update
Issued at 1107 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
moderately deep convection has fired over NE lower mi, just ahead
of a frontal band of low clouds. Have not seen any lightning
associated with this yet, but would not preclude that possibility
se of an apn-gladwin line over the next hour or two.

Showers are finally flaring up over NW lower and eastern upper mi,
within the frontal low cloud band, at the onset of cold advection.

Precip coverage should be highest over the next 3 hours, before
drier mid-level air results in lesser coverage.

Winds are the primary story today. Winds are ramping up late this
morning (as expected), with the onset of cold advection. Pressure
gradient remains tight thru 21z before starting to relax. Deeper
mixing thanks to cold advection and weak diurnal heating will
continue to promote somewhat stronger gusts as we move into the
afternoon. Agree with the previous forecaster that looks like a
marginal event from a headline standpoint, at least away from the
coastal counties. Also agree that, given trees are at full foliage
and are still almost fully green (we have some splashes of color
here in the glr area), going with an advisory makes total sense.

We also have weakened trees from the late august severe events
that may be inclined to come down today. Am thinking the wind
advisory may need to go a bit longer than 5 pm, though will not
pull the trigger on this just yet.

Temps are beginning their long descent today. Readings should be
in the 50s across the forecast area by 5 pm, except for some
upper 40s in eastern upper mi.

Update issued at 840 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
not a high-impact issue for today, but have had to boost max
temps for this morning substantially. This reflects the reality of
current balmy readings across northern mi, and that central and
eastern sections will have a short period of diurnal heating
before better cold advection kicks in. Actual cold front is
starting to venture across lake mi, while noticeable surface cold
advection is just arriving in the immediate grb area.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
high impact weather potential: possible remnant thunderstorms
associated with a strong cold front this morning, and a possible
wind speeds reaching advisory criteria. Frost potential late
tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper ridging was over the east coast while troughing was working
into the western great lakes. Sfc low pressure was still deepening
as it was lifting into far western lake superior, and the pressure
gradient was continuing to tighten. A warm front was lifting through
eastern upper michigan, and was taking some of the earlier stronger
storms forced mainly by LLJ waa along with it. Still upstream was
the strong cold front that was resulting in additional showers and
storms that were still making their way toward NRN michigan. This
activity was supported by a nice axis of upper divergence associated
with a 110kt+ jet. NRN michigan is firmly within the warm sector
where instability has been growing to 1500-1800j kg mucape. All the
forcing and greater than expected instability, has not only resulted
in damaging wind threats, but also with one of two strong storms
that had likely produced some large hail. Upstream, across western
canada and down into montana was high pressure and much quieter
weather.

The warm frontal activity will continue to press north through
daybreak, while the convection associated with the cold front will
continue to work it's way toward NRN michigan. As it does, the
stronger dpva and LLJ waa lifts NE of us, and there are strong
suggestions that the impressive axis of upper divergence weakens.

This is all pointing toward a gradual weakening, and dissipating
line of convection as it rolls into NRN michigan. Definitely still
worth watching as the mucapes will still be around 1600j kg. Any
potential thunder threat will end shortly after sunrise, and strong
cold advection ensues while the pressure gradient remains tight.

Strong overlake instability develops later today, and lake effect
rain showers will develop in NW flow regimes. These showers probably
won't last too long, ending this evening as the atmosphere dries out
pretty decently.

Taking a closer look at the winds for today, it's certainly going
to be cooler and quite gusty today in the tight gradient. Am seeing
gusts easily into the 35 to 40 mph range and likely in many areas to
advisory levels (45mph). After coordination with surrounding
offices, will be issuing a wind advisory for today. There is also a
chance that a brief burst of advisory criteria wind gusts can occur
right with the cold frontal passage. There is even somewhat of an
isallobaric component involved, which provides a bit more confidence
in the headline.

The storm system quickly departs into quebec tonight, with the
gradient slowly loosening and winds gradually slowing down. The high
pressure settles in by daybreak Saturday from NRN michigan back
through the mid mississippi valley. Not gonna totally believe the
data suggestion that skies will completely clear, not with the
overlake instability we'll have. Believe there will be lake clouds
in nrly flow regimes.

Temperatures ranging from the mid 60s in eastern upper to the mid
70s closer to saginaw bay this morning, falling to the mid 50s in
eastern upper to the upper 60s in downsloping areas of NE lower this
afternoon.

By daybreak, low level winds through 850mb are all 10kts or less,
likely leading to many areas, mainly low lying areas totally
decoupling to calm. What wind there will be will be northerly and
light (maybe even turning offshore?). As stated earlier, could be
some lake cloud in those nrly flow regimes, but inland locales will
be the coldest with some potential patchy frost. Doubt this will
need an advisory, but watch out "typically colder areas"! Readings
will more so be in the upper half of the 30s there, with 40-45f
closer to the shores and nrly flow regimes.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
high impact weather potential: patchy frost possible across a few
typically cooler spots early Sunday morning.

Pattern forecast: nearly zonal flow is anticipated aloft across the
northern tier of the CONUS through the upcoming weekend. High
pressure rooted at the surface is expected to keep much of the area
precipitation-free through the forecast period; however, a tight
baroclinic zone is expected to become draped across far northern
portions of the u.P. By late Saturday night into early Sunday...

perhaps providing the focus for a few scattered light showers across
the far north
primary forecast concerns challenges: low temperatures Sunday
morning along with minor precipitation potential across eastern
upper.

Generally quiet weather is expected across the bulk of northern
michigan on Saturday with mostly sunny skies and light winds. High
temperatures will certainly feel cool as highs top out several
degrees below normal... Ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.

Aforementioned baroclinic zone gradually sags south out of southern
canada becoming draped across far northern reaches of the forecast
area, providing an increase in cloud cover Saturday evening across
eastern upper and portions of the tip of the mitt... Perhaps even as
far south as the m-72 corridor. A slight chance of pops looks to
suffice for now for any isolated shower activity that may affect
parts of that area. This should help limit overall radiational
cooling across a good chunk of northern michigan, although wouldn't
be surprised if a few of the typically cooler locations of interior
northern lower make a run at low temperatures in the mid-30s early
Sunday morning (and thus another night of patchy frost potential).

Quiet weather remains on tap for Sunday with partly sunny skies.

Gradually increasing easterly winds will keep locations near the
lake huron shoreline coolest for daytime highs... Generally in the
upper 50s warming several degrees west of interstate 70 as
southwestern sections of the forecast area near the grand traverse
bay region make a run at the upper 60s.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
high impact weather potential:
after another quiet day across northern michigan on Monday, the
focus turns toward early next week as another system develops across
the plains... Able to tap into gulf of mexico moisture before
trekking northeastward toward the western great lakes. Lots of
uncertainty regarding this system given it being 5 days out, but it
certainly seems as if it'll carry the next chance for widespread
precipitation across northern michigan.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 633 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
strong low pressure in lake superior will work into quebec
tonight, and result in a tight pressure gradient and strong gusty
winds for much of the TAF period. These winds will kick off with
the arrival of the system's cold front that crosses later this
morning, while a band of showers decays. Much colder air then fills
in through the day with the development of light lake effect
showers, mainly this afternoon and into this evening. Winds
gradually subside through the night, becoming rather light by
daybreak Saturday as high pressure settles in. The lake effect
showers will end this evening, but there may be lingering lake
clouds longer through the night. CIGS will turn MVFR to low end
vfr behind the front and hold through most of the TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
strong low pressure in far western lake superior will work into
quebec tonight, and result in a tight pressure gradient and strong
gusty winds into tonight. These winds will kick off with the arrival
of the system's cold front that crosses this morning, while also
bringing in a decaying band of showers and some embedded storms.

Steep overlake instability will help result in widespread solid
gales today, that continue into this evening for lake huron. Winds
gradually subside through the night, becoming rather light by
daybreak Saturday as high pressure settles in for the weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Wind advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz008-015>036-
041-042.

Lakeshore flood warning until midnight edt tonight for miz016-
019>021-025-031.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz016-
019>021-025-031.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz008-015-017-
018-024-030-036-042.

Lakeshore flood warning from 5 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for miz008.

Lh... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lhz345>349.

Lm... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lsz321-322.

Update... Jz
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 10 mi38 min SW 23 G 35 70°F 66°F1003 hPa (+1.6)
45020 14 mi28 min SW 19 G 27 70°F 69°F2 ft62°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 16 mi38 min WSW 29 70°F 1002 hPa (+1.3)
45022 41 mi28 min SW 25 G 35 69°F 68°F6 ft1002.1 hPa67°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 48 mi28 min WSW 25 G 31 67°F 65°F1000.1 hPa61°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 69 mi58 min WSW 27 G 35 69°F 999.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI18 mi1.7 hrsWSW 13 G 2910.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F64°F79%1001.9 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI23 mi1.7 hrsSSW 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast71°F64°F80%1002 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmSE44SE3E5E8E5SE74S54SE9
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1 day agoCalmCalmN4N4N6N6NE6NE4CalmE3E4CalmW4E3E3E3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE5E4
2 days agoN4N6CalmNE7NE4N6N8NW7N6N6N4N6NE4N7N9N6N10N6E5E3N4N6E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.