Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suttons Bay, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:26PM Monday June 25, 2018 3:45 AM EDT (07:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:15PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 223 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Today..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201806251430;;076860 FZUS53 KAPX 250623 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 223 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-251430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suttons Bay, MI
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location: 44.99, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 250622
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
222 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 222 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Sunny and warm today...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of high pressure is centered
between lake superior and james bay early this morning... With
pronounced surface ridging extending southward thru the great lakes
region. Skies remain clear across our CWA attm... With just a few
strips of thin cirrus drifting overhead via blowoff from upstream
convection over western iowa.

High pressure center will slide SE toward new england over the next
24 hours... But strong surface ridging and dry air will remain in
place across the great lakes thru tonight. The northwoods will see a
beautiful sunny and warm late june day today. Afternoon highs
ranging from the lower 70s in eastern upper and NE lower michigan
thanks to cooler easterly flow off of lake huron to the lower 80s
along the lake michigan shoreline areas via downslope flow. We will
see some increase in high clouds tonight... But overall conditions
will remain mostly clear. Overnight lows will cool into the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 222 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Active midweek weather...

high impact weather potential: thunderstorms possible late Tuesday
afternoon evening through early Wednesday.

Pattern forecast: upper level ridge axis centered atop northern
michigan Monday night will break down and shift east throughout the
day Tuesday ahead of a vertically stacked low pressure system set to
trek from the central plains squarely across michigan during the
Tuesday through Wednesday timeframe. As a result, a return to active
weather is expected locally with periods of rain and embedded
thunderstorms.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops thunder chances
throughout the period.

First and foremost, guidance has shifted south and slowed rather
considerably over the last 24 hours or so with respect to the timing
of precipitation arrival across northern michigan... Now pushed back
6-12+ hours area-wide with showers becoming possible across the far
southwestern counties as early as mid-late Tuesday afternoon and
across the remainder of northern lower Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night. This certainly seems logical as precipitation will be
fighting inherent dry canadian air in place from the day prior.

Some question marks lie on far north precip is able to make
it... With portions of eastern upper perhaps missing any measurable
rain all together. In advance of precipitation, an increasing
lowering cloud deck will be the rule for much of the day Tuesday
with mostly cloudy skies anticipated area-wide by early afternoon.

Seasonable high temperatures continue... Varying from the low 70s
across eastern upper and coastal areas of northern lower to the mid-
upper 70s inland.

Periods of rain will become the norm Tuesday night into early
Wednesday (mainly across northern lower) with plenty of moisture
associated with this system, evident by pws progged to rise over
1.6". Rain could fall heavily at times, especially in any embedded
thunderstorms, which would be most probable Tuesday night into the
first half of Wednesday as the system's warm front swings northward
toward the straits and a southwesterly low-level jet ramps up. Not
overly impressed with thunder chances by any stretch and believe
that any rumbles of thunder will remain largely scattered at this
point. Bulk shear values still progged in the 20-30 kt range leaves
quite a bit to be desired before raising red flags for severe
weather chances, but certainly something that will be monitored over
the 48 hours.

As the system shifts off to the east throughout the day Wednesday,
wrap around moisture is expected to keep shower chances in the
forecast through the afternoon hours, although in a more scattered
lighter fashion before precip chances end completely across the
entire area by Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday range
from near 70 north to the upper 70s near saginaw bay.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 222 am edt Mon jun 25 2018
high impact weather potential: very warm temperatures possible
Friday through Sunday with high temperatures in the 90s and heat
indices near 100 degrees not out of the question.

High pressure is anticipated to be nosing into the region by late
Wednesday night through Thursday leading to clearing skies and a
break in the active weather. The next threat for scattered showers
and storms holds off until Friday in association with energy riding
along the northern periphery of ridging expected to build across the
center of the country late this week into the upcoming weekend. The
biggest story will likely revolve around the prospects for a return
to true summertime heat and humidity with high temperatures in the
90s across much of the area Friday through at least Sunday. Heat
indices near or even exceeding 100 degrees certainly not out of the
question.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1148 pm edt Sun jun 24 2018
vfr.

High pressure over far northern ontario is pushing drier air south
into the region. Minimal cloud cover expected thru the taf
periods. Can not entirely rule out some shallow ground fog at any
taf site overnight.

Light winds, tending to be easterly on Monday.

Marine
Issued at 222 am edt Mon jun 25 2018
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Tuesday night.

Our next chance of rain will develop Tuesday and Tuesday night along
and ahead of low pressure lifting NE into the western great lakes
region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 10 mi45 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 55°F1022.8 hPa (+0.7)
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 16 mi65 min E 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 1021.7 hPa
45022 41 mi25 min E 5.8 G 7.8 56°F 60°F1022.8 hPa56°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 48 mi35 min NNE 12 G 14 54°F 55°F1021.3 hPa48°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 69 mi65 min NNE 7 G 9.9 53°F 1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI18 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1020.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI23 mi50 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist51°F50°F97%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N8N5N4NW4NE4NE6N6NW6Calm4NW6N8NE7NE9NE8N7N5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE6NE6NE5N6N5NW5N5N5N5N5NE3N4NE4E3E3CalmCalmNE6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N5NE6NE6N4NE5N9N8N84NE5N6E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.