Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:32 PM EDT (18:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:15AMMoonset 6:21PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1021 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201708192230;;625462 FZUS53 KAPX 191421 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1021 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-192230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191736
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
136 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

Update
Issued at 1056 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
thickest of the synoptic cloud cover has exited to the east. Cu
field is sprouting away from lake mi, and a n-s oriented band of
altocu is also progressing across eastern upper and far northern
lower mi. Background synoptic NW to W surface winds are
decreasing, and that trend will continue as low pressure over
quebec moves away. In fact, given the position of the low and high
(far SW wi), the lowering of pressures over land areas with
diurnal heating will act to further loosen the pressure gradient
over northern mi.

It will still take time to overcome the synoptic wind and generate
a lake breeze in NE lower mi. In fact, the most recent run or two
of the hrrr still initiate convection there, but not until 4-6 pm.

Hrrr pretty consistently indicating that upper mi will be more
active - especially central upper mi. There is also consistency in
bringing some remnant showers to parts of NW lower mi.

Much of the above is reflected in the going forecast. However,
some timing adjustments are in order: pushing pops in NE lower mi
to a little later in the day, and speeding up the potential for
showers to reach NW lower mi to as soon as 6pm.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 245 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
high impact weather potential: a thunderstorm in lake breeze
convergence today?
pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level troughing was directly overhead early this morning,
while more pronounced ridging was over the NRN plains. At the sfc,
low pressure was in western quebec and was continuing to track east,
but low level cyclonic convergence sfc troughing was still stubborn
to depart. This has resulted in a prolonged period of low level
clouds and spits of light rain across NRN michigan. In addition, mid
and upper level clouds were also pushing into the region, associated
with the upper level troughing. All this cloud has kept temperatures
from falling, remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s most areas.

Not much going on in weather today through tonight. Can certainly
see mostly cloudy skies through at least a portion of the morning
hours past daybreak, as well as spits of light rain. With the
further eastward progression of the sfc low, passing upper trough,
and incoming higher pressure, skies will gradually allow some Sun to
appear. Believe that low level moisture is still plenty enough to
result in a decent coverage of cumulus, especially in interior
eastern upper and far NE lower where lake breeze convergence is
expected. In addition, modifying ruc GFS fcst soundings, 200-600j kg
of MLCAPE is revealed. Can see maybe some isolated showers with an
outside shot at a weak garden-variety thunderstorm in these areas.

Of course, we have to get the warming today from the sun.

Other showers may be able to drift down into NW lower this evening,
generated from lake breezes in far NE wi central upper. Not much in
the way of help aloft in sustaining any precipitation, but there is
at least some indication of weak vorticity in the NW flow aloft.

Plus, the lakes are relatively warm with some bl instability holding
through evening. Otherwise, skies will decrease in clouds overnight,
with only some higher level cloud possible.

High today in the middle 70s most areas with lows in the upper 50s
and lower 60s tonight.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 245 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: low amplitude ridging on Sunday gives way to
increasingly unsettled weather early next week with a frontal
boundary sliding into the great lakes.

Primary forecast challenge: shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday
night into Monday.

Fairly quiet weather during the daylight hours on Sunday with return
low level flow developing as high pressure slowly slides to the
southeast of the area. This will push warmer h8 air into the great
lakes, with high temperatures into the 80s in many areas. Upstream
trough frontal boundary sags toward the western lakes upper michigan
Sunday night. Moisture pooling in vicinity of the boundary, with
theta-e axis folding southward through upper michigan and toward the
straits. With modestly steep mid level lapse rates and increasing
amounts of deep layer moisture, showers storms will become more
numerous over upper michigan and northwest lower michigan.

Front remains draped across northern lower michigan on Monday (sorry
eclipse viewers), with plenty of clouds and scattered showers storms
with additional ripples of shortwave energy riding along it. A warm
and humid day, with dewpoints well into the 60s (possibly
approaching 70 degrees over southwest parts of the area). Despite
the clouds pcpn... Temperatures still into the 80s in many areas.

Eclipse viewing forecast... Not very good for much of northern
michigan with frontal boundary in the area bringing mostly cloudy
skies. The best viewing in the state likely over southeast michigan
where less clouds are expected.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 245 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
frontal boundary and weak surface low will push through the great
lakes Monday night into Tuesday. There are still some question
marks between the models as to the speed of the frontal boundary and
the strength of the surface reflection riding along it. Will carry
high rain chances Monday night into Tuesday (especially northern
lower), with locally heavy rain a possibility given deep layer
moisture in place (pwats nearing 2 inches). Another shot of very
cool late summer air takes hold for the middle and end of the week.

There could even be some lows in the 30s in the typically cooler
locations for the end of the week under ideal radiational cooling
conditions. A few showers still likely on Wednesday, with drier
conditions expected for the end of the week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 135 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017
vfr.

Cu field blossoming away from lake mi. Could well see a few
showers pop up in NE lower mi thru early evening, though chance
for apn to be directly impacted is too low to include a mention in
the taf. CU fades away tonight, though not before some convective
remnants move SE from central upper mi toward the tvc area. Have
not included any mention of fog tonight, as pressure gradient may
be just enough to keep things slightly stirred. If not, some fog
may appear at any site but tvc.

Ongoing W to NW breeze will diminish tonight, and pick up out of
the SW by late morning Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 245 am edt Sat aug 19 2017
low pressure in western quebec will press eastward today, being
replaced by higher pressure through tonight and into Sunday. A slow
moving cold front will then press into lake superior Sunday and
Sunday night. Remnant gusty westerly flow with some low end advisory
gusts through daybreak in and around presque isle light, will
gradually swing around more southerly while weakening later today
and tonight. Light southerly flow increases through the day Sunday
and Sunday night, but no advisories expected at this time.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Smd
short term... Jk
long term... Jk
aviation... Jz
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi52 min WSW 17 G 19 71°F 1012.5 hPa
45020 16 mi22 min SW 9.7 G 14 74°F 70°F1 ft57°F
45022 35 mi22 min WSW 14 G 18 68°F 68°F2 ft1013.1 hPa61°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi44 min W 13 G 16 71°F 1010.8 hPa48°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 69 mi52 min W 9.9 G 12 66°F 1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi38 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F56°F52%1012.2 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi39 minW 13 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F55°F45%1011.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi38 minWSW 11 G 1610.00 miFair75°F58°F56%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5--NW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3SW4SW4SW7W3
1 day agoS4S3CalmSW4S5SW8S4S7S3S9SW4SW5SW5SW7W3
G14
SW4W7W4W7W3W4W5W4W4
2 days agoSE5SE9S6SE6S9
G14
S4SE5SE7SE6SE5SE3SE10
G19
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E4S3SE8S5S5--S5S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.