Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:58PM Friday March 24, 2017 12:21 AM EDT (04:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:49AMMoonset 3:15PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1053 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Overnight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers, drizzle and freezing drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201703241100;;982288 FZUS53 KAPX 240253 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1053 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-241100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240306
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1106 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Update
Issued at 1039 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
deep moist advection continues across the area, finally starting to
do a number on what had been a hard to dislodge surface rooted dry
layer. Southeast flow continues to largely offset initial
evaporational cooling across northern lower, keeping showers mostly
liquid at the surface (although have noted some icing on elevated
surfaces here at the office despite mid 30 degree temperatures). A
touch cooler conditions north of the big bridge, and do suspect some
light freezing rain is occurring on those secondary road surfaces.

Overall trends really change little tonight, with this initial round
of rain pinwheeling east, with development of even more focused deep
layer moisture convergence likely leading to more shower
organization across at least parts of the area through the overnight
into Friday. Still some uncertainty exactly where that relatively
narrow MAX moisture convergence axis will reside, but would expect
to see some halfway decent rain amounts wherever it does eventually
line up. May even hear a rumble of thunder or two, although per
instability and radar trends, it does appear best opportunity for
thunder will remain to our south. Maintenance of deep south and
southeast flow should continue to largely offset any evap cooling,
so expecting much of the precipitation to remain just rain over
northern lower (some isolated icy spots do remain possible). Thermal
progs change little over eastern upper, so expect at least pockets
of light freezing rain to continue with some minor ice accumulations
by morning. Inherited advisory has this well covered.

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Increasing chances of precip... Including freezing rain...

high impact weather potential... Areas of freezing rain developing
tonight into early Friday leading to some travel problems...

especially across eastern upper michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Large area of strong high pressure
continues to push east away from michigan... While low pressure
develops to the lee of the rockies. Southerly flow/waa in between
these two systems continues to strengthen across the plains...

mississippi valley and the western great lakes region. Moist return
flow within these areas produced an area of scattered light precip
across wisconsin... Which tried and failed to make it across lake
michigan into our CWA thanks to very dry air still entrenched across
much of michigan. Another large area of convection is developing
over minnesota and iowa... With additional convection extending thru
illinois... All of which is developing along and north of the
approaching warm front. This front will lift into lower michigan
tonight and will likely stall around the straits area on Friday. Low
level dry air will eventually give way to moist air surging
northward into the western great lakes region tonight... Leading to
increasing chances of precip across our entire cwa.

Model soundings still show the likelihood of mixed precip across our
northern cwa... Especially across eastern upper michigan which will
likely see a light mix of precip types... Including light freezing
rain... Beginning after 03z and continuing into Friday morning
(around 15z or so). In coordination with mqt... Will issue a winter
wx advisory for chippewa and mackinac counties for this timeframe
for mixed precip with the potential for ice accumulations of around
a tenth of an inch or so... Combined with some light snow and sleet
as well. WAA across the northern lower michigan should keep the
potential window of mixed precip relatively small... Only a few hours
during late evening and into the overnight hours. Will refrain from
issuing a headline for far northern and NE lower michigan for now
but will certainly keep a close eye on precip type trends thru
tonight. By 15z on Friday... All precip should have switched over to
plain rain as temps warm into the upper 30s and 40s.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Unsettled weather through the weekend, freezing rain for some...

high impact weather potential: freezing rain possibilities,
particularly for northeast lower and eastern upper, through the
weekend.

Pattern forecast: high pressure currently over the region will
continue to move off the atlantic coast as low pressure moves out of
the central plains and towards the great lakes. This will be a slow
moving, occluding low pressure system as the cutoff upper wave
weakens and begins to open. Strong return flow behind the departing
high and ahead of the approaching low will advect gulf moisture up
through the ohio valley and into northern michigan. Currently
progged pwat values in the range of .8 to 1" are impressive for this
time of year, well above 90th percentile. Meanwhile, high pressure
moving through northern ontario will be advecting cold air south,
with sub zero h8 temps pushing possibly as far south as the straits.

This should serve to stall the northern progression of the warm
front attendant to the approaching low, which looks to be just to
our south across central michigan.

Primary forecast concerns: where to start? That precipitation will
fall through the period seems a good bet as the slow moving system
takes it's time getting out of the area. The big issue will be the
low level temperatures, and the effect that will have on p-types.

The primary concern right now is the potential for freezing rain.

With the warm front setup to our south, and high pressure to our
north sustaining cold advection, the likelihood of freezing rain
somewhere is pretty high. The problem is with just how far north the
warm front can get, and how far south the low level cold air will
get. Given the location of the warm front, I think the southern
portions of the CWA are likely to stay all rain. But as you get
north of m-72, low level temperatures start to drop below freezing
with deep, mid-level warm layers as warm as 6c. And while low level
temperatures will fall as you go further north, the warm layer will
become less pronounced. Right now, favored areas for freezing rain
look to be in NE lower and eastern upper. While there will be a
general idea for freezing rain placement in the grids, it should be
considered just that at this juncture as just small changes in
temperatures will greatly impact the freezing potential. Saturday
looks like it could be a little more prolonged freezing rain
potential north of m-32, as the cold air makes it furthest push
south. This will just have to be nailed down more as it gets into
the near term.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
high impact weather potential...

a surface low passes south of the region and spreads a broad area of
precipitation across the area for Monday... With wrap around moisture
keeping pops in the forecast into Tuesday. Temperatures will be
running real close to climo, which should keep precip all rain. The
fly in the ointment could be as the night time diurnal swing brings
us close to the freezing mark, combined with CAA on the backside of
the low. That said... Confidence is higher toward a wetter solution
than whiter, as significantly drier air accompanies the cooler
air... Which comes in late Tuesday, along with high pressure at the
surface and lasts through Thursday. Based on what the ECMWF and gfs
are showing... I think temperatures could be cooler on Wednesday and
Thursday than what blended solutions are showing for the grids, but
that's a long way off yet.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1103 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
conditions expected to continue to deteriorate heading through
today as the low level environment gradually saturates.

Widespread light to moderate rain will continue to develop. May
see a brief period of freezing rain, especially at kapn, when
precipitation initially arrives. This should be short- lived as
surface temperatures slowly creep back above freezing. Low cigs,
rain, and mist expected through today and this evening as a warm
front stalls out overhead, only to return slowly south as a cold
front during the afternoon and evening.

Brief period of wind shear expected at kmbl tonight in an
otherwise fairly light wind regime through this TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 321 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
winds and waves will remain at SCA criteria for portions of northern
lakes huron thru much of tonight... And then diminish below
criteria by Friday. Chances of precip will increase tonight for
all nearshore areas... With some mixed precip possible across the
far north. Wx will remain rather unsettled thru the weekend... With
good chances of precip possibly mixed during the night.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 11 am edt Friday for miz008-015.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lhz348-349.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Msb
near term... Mlr
short term... Alm
long term... Kab
aviation... Msb
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi42 min SE 5.1 G 11 37°F 1016.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi52 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 33°F 1017.7 hPa21°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 69 mi42 min S 12 G 19 41°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi27 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast37°F22°F58%1016.6 hPa
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi29 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast42°F16°F35%1015.2 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi28 minSE 810.00 miOvercast36°F24°F65%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S7S7SE10S11S10
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1 day agoN9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.