Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:35PM Sunday September 23, 2018 8:10 AM EDT (12:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:24PMMoonset 4:44AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 348 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201809231600;;073121 FZUS53 KAPX 230748 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 348 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-231600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231034
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
634 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 320 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Seasonal late september weather...

high impact weather potential: none
primary forecast concerns challenges: weak upper trough and cold
pool aloft combining for an some showers over the northern CWA today.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The southern great lakes and ohio valley
are caught between two systems today, a weak surface boundary north
while a system stretches from texas to the mid atlantic. The current
ir Sat data shows the a band of clouds, along with a few showers,
over upper michigan and lake superior associated with a weak surface
boundary, while a narrow area of high pressure and clear skies
dominated the ohio valley and lower michigan.

The weak surface boundary and upper level trough associated with the
band of clouds and showers over lake superior and east upper
michigan, will slowly sink south and weaken as it drops across the
straits of mackinac and tip-of-the-mitt into early afternoon.

Corresponding model soundings and mid level mstr progs (850-500mb
rh) shows sufficient enough mid lvl moisture to generate some rain
showers over east upper and extreme NRN lower michigan into this
afternoon. Model soundings and mstr progs show very limited moisture
from gaylord south into this evening. 850 500mb qvectors shows
convergence associated with the surface boundary lingering over
upper michigan this morning, while forcing slowly drops south into
extreme NRN lower during the day. The cool mid lvl temps (around 3c
at 850mb), steepens mid lvl lapse rates a little into early
afternoon, helping generate the chance of showers.

Overall will mention a few showers over east upper and extreme
northern lower michigan into this afternoon, before the mid level
cold pool exits northeast and weak upper ridge builds into the
region. Expect slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures today, in
the mid 60s, as mid lvl temps moderate slowly through the afternoon.

Expect mainly clear skies across much of the forecast area tonight,
as an upper ridge lingers and area of high pressure over the eastern
great lakes pushes east.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 320 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

A little milder with rain chances at times...

high impact weather potential... Slight chance of thunderstorms
Monday night and again Tuesday afternoon. Also some gusty marine
winds through Monday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Warm advection will ramp up over
northern michigan during the day Monday as strong high pressure
pushes into quebec and a developing surface low lifts from minnesota
into western ontario. Southerly flow will transport increasing
moisture into the region through Monday evening out ahead of an
approaching cold front. That front is then progged to cross northern
michigan late Tuesday morning into the evening.

Primary forecast concerns... Shower and small thunderstorm chances
late Monday into Tuesday.

A weak thermal gradient will develop between eastern upper and the
tip of the mitt lake huron shoreline Sunday night. Easterly flow off
lake huron will support shallow boundary layer moisture and greater
cloud cover in this area through Monday morning, which may lead to a
few sprinkles. Some guidance hints at this, including hi-res, but
due to low probability confidence will keep out of the forecast at
this time.

Mid level ridge axis will quickly push east of the area on Monday as
an aggressive longwave trough drops into the northern plains.

Isentropic lift will progressively strengthen from south to north
through the afternoon, leading to an increase in rain chances by
evening as pwats rise to near 1.5 inches. Minimal elevated
instability (a couple hundred j kg of mucape) available Monday night
will support a slight chance of thunderstorms over northern lower.

The area of higher of moisture will push off to the NE by daybreak
Tuesday, but pwats will still hover around 1" out ahead of the
approaching cold front. Rain chances will decrease a bit after
daybreak with somewhat of a lull expected for most areas until the
front arrives later. Forcing along the front will not be
particularly strong during the day, but additional support will come
towards evening as a wave of low pressure rides NE along the front.

Instability will be minimal due to expected lingering cloud cover
and weak lapse rates, but there does look to be potential for a few
storms in the afternoon. Should they develop, deep layer shear of
40+ knots would be in play, but think the overall threat for
stronger storms will be tempered by limited instability and the
front's late arrival. At any rate, it's something to keep an eye on
over the next couple days.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 320 am edt Sun sep 23 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Aforementioned wave of low pressure riding northeast along the cold
front and interacting with approaching upper trough Tuesday evening
will bring a round of more substantial rainfall to the northwestern
2 3 of the forecast area. Cold air advection returns for Wednesday
with another system pushing through Thursday into Friday. As a
colder airmass settles in towards the end of the week, lake effect
showers may also come into play at times.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 633 am edt Sun sep 23 2018
expect mainlyVFR CIGS and vsby across NRN mi TAF sites through the
forecast period, as a weakening sfc boundary lingers over upper
michigan today, in advance of a more significant boundary crossing
the state Tuesday. Current sfc obs and IR satellite data shows
mainly mid level cloud deck draped across lake superior and upper
michigan in response to the weak sfc boundary and shallow upper
trough. Short term models suggest that this band will continue to
drift south into NRN lower michigan through the day before clearing
overnight and Monday. MVFR CIGS are possible at TAF sites kpln and
kapn today.

Marine
Issued at 320 am edt Sun sep 23 2018
weak northeast winds this morning will trend east and strengthen
through the day, before trending southeast tonight as an approaching
system lifts northwest of the great lakes. Winds and waves will be
nearing small craft criteria for much of the northern lake huron
nearshore waters this afternoon and tonight as easterly winds
increase. Chances for precipitation will be limited through Monday
afternoon, while the chance for showers and a few storms increases
Monday night and Tuesday as a frontal boundary pushing across the
great lakes.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Tuesday for lhz345-347>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Tuesday for lmz341.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Tuesday for lsz321.

Near term... Sr
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Sr
marine... Sr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi31 min SSW 4.1 G 7 51°F 1022.4 hPa
45183 19 mi41 min S 9.7 G 12 56°F 63°F1023.7 hPa
45022 35 mi31 min S 12 G 14 55°F 66°F2 ft1023 hPa54°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi41 min 53°F 62°F1021.2 hPa53°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair40°F39°F97%1023 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi18 minS 310.00 miA Few Clouds47°F44°F90%1022.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi16 minSE 410.00 miFair48°F48°F100%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3SE4CalmW3SW5S5W4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW6SW7
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N3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4S8
G14
S8
G17
S7S9
G14
W17
G32
S4S7S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.