Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:34PMMoonset 6:55AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1015 Pm Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy after midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers and snow showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201903201015;;630365 FZUS53 KAPX 200215 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1015 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-201015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 200406
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1206 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Update
Issued at 1013 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
high pressure center continues to push eastward away from michigan
late this evening... As two low pressure system begin to approach
our state. A northern stream system is moving out of central
canada and into the far NW great lakes region attm... While a
southern stream system is moving out of the central plains toward
the mid mississippi valley. These two systems will phase over
michigan by Wednesday afternoon... Producing widespread precip for
our area thru Wednesday evening.

In the meantime... Clouds will continue to steadily increase
overnight across our entire CWA in advance of these merging
systems... With chances of light snow increasing across eastern
upper michigan very late tonight. Still expect precip will become
widespread across our entire CWA on Wednesday... With a mix of rain
and snow expected but little in the way of snow accumulation.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 340 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Clouding up from north to south...

high impact weather potential... None.

High pressure sits off the mid-atlantic coast, while low pressure is
digging into far NW ontario. That low (at 1009mb) will approach the
northern tip of lk superior by morning. Associated cloud cover will
expand southward into northern mi tonight, though it is considerably
less certain that precip will make it here before 8 am.

Pleasant late-winter early spring day out there, with a burgeoning
cu field over N central NE lower mi, some standing-wave mid clouds
over upper mi, and patchy thin cirrus over top of all that. Thicker
cloud cover was noted just north of superior. The CU will dissipate
with loss of diurnal heating this evening. Those thicker clouds
upstream will start to push into eastern upper mi after 9-10pm, far
northern lower mi toward midnight, and the rest of the area
overnight. Increasing low- and mid-level isentropic ascent theta-e
advection (primarily at and below 700mb) in the warm sector of the
approaching clipper is the primary forcing mechanism. This forcing
is broad but not strong, and in the low levels we are lifting
initially dry air. We start to approach deeper saturation in
eastern upper mi after 5-6am. This is generally a little
slower drier than the going forecast, and the new forecast follows
that trend, bringing a chance of snow to eastern upper mi very
very late tonight. Better pops will await the arrival of a sharper
forcing mechanism, which occurs later on Wednesday.

Definitely an opportunity for some radiative cooling in northern
lower mi before we cloud up. On the other hand, the pressure
gradient is tightening, and our starting point this afternoon is
relatively warm. Will still go a bit below guidance in N central and
ne lower mi. But that still keeps min temps mild, mid 20s to
lower 30s.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 340 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Mild temperatures early then colder Friday, seasonal late winter
precipitation...

high impact weather potential: minor, with slowly warming
temperatures Wednesday and wintry pcpn making for some possible
slippery roads early, with a period of freezing drizzle possible
early Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation type and chances
through the period.

Pattern synopsis forecast... There will be several chances for pcpn
across the northern great lakes through the forecast period as a
couple of features drop south across the great lakes through Friday.

Additionally, an upper trough and slightly cooler temperatures will
develop over the NRN lakes Wednesday and Thursday, before a sharper
trough colder mid lvl temperatures dig into the great lakes Friday.

Precipitation chances increase rapidly across northern michigan
Wednesday as a sfc and upper level trough drop south across lake
superior. Mid lvl qvectors (850 500mb) shows strong convergence
developing across NRN michigan through early Wednesday with forcing
diminishing greatly during the evening as the clipper slowly pushes
east. Model soundings showing significant mstr through the column
for widespread pcpn across the entire forecast Wednesday. Pcpn type
will be a little difficult as model soudnings show freezing lvls
bouncing around 700ft north which would suggest a wintry mix into
the evening for east upper and tip of the mitt. Model soundings show
freezing lvls around 2100ft over the srn CWA thru Wed aftn, before
dropping quickly below 500ft during the evening, suggesting a rain
event through the afternoon for the SRN forecast area before
transitioning to a wintry mix in the evening.

There is still some minor concern for patchy freezing drizzle over a
portion of NRN michigan early Thursday as model soundings show
drying in mid and upper lvls while abundant mstr lingers trapped in
low lvls. Some light pcpn is then expected late Thursday afternoon
as a weak boundary drops quickly over the state. Some minor lake
induced snows are possible in favored northernly flow snow belts
Thursday night as sfc-850mb winds trend N NW and mid lvl temps drop
to -12c on the backside of an exiting clipper. Overall Friday looks
dry and colder (afternoon temps in the 30s) with model soundings
showing extremely limited mstr through much of the column while
850mb temps fall to near -14c.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 340 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
widely varying temperatures with limited chances for precipitation
through the period. The great lakes and upper midwest will be
largely dominated by high pressure during the forecast period which
will limit pcpn chances into the beginning of next week. However,
there is a small chance for pcpn Sunday night, the result of a weak
boundary dropping south over the state. Mild temperatures are
expected through the weekend due to weak upper ridging, with a
return to colder temperatures early next week as mid lvl temps fall
back to -12c in developing upper trough.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1205 am edt Wed mar 20 2019
two low pressure systems will approach michigan tonight... One from
central canada and one from the central plains. These two system
will phase over michigan by Wednesday afternoon... Resulting in the
production of widespread precip across our area beginning very late
tonight and continuing thru Wednesday evening. The precip will begin
as a mix of rain and snow in the morning... And then switch over to
mainly rain by afternoon. Llws will develop late tonight into
Wednesday morning as low level winds strengthen ahead of this
system.

Marine
Issued at 340 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
low pressure nearing far NW ontario is diving southward, and will
approach lake superior Wed morning. SW winds will increase ahead
of the low. Wind gusts will approach advisory levels in spots, but
waves will more definitely get there, mainly from leland
southward. Advisories will be posted there late tonight and much
of Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Jz
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Mr
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 15 mi20 min SW 8 G 14 37°F 1020.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi30 min SW 15 G 18 37°F 33°F1019.4 hPa-3°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi65 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F19°F56%1021.7 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi67 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast37°F19°F50%1021.5 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi65 minS 9 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F21°F54%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S6SW6SW6SW7SW6W10W6SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmSW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4SW4SW5SW6SW4NW7W5W4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW7SW6CalmNW7W5
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.