Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Omena, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:25PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:20 AM EDT (13:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:13PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 322 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201906201530;;771717 FZUS53 KAPX 200722 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 322 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-201530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Omena, MI
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location: 45, -85.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201034
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
634 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
impactful weather: showers ending.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a SRN stream shortwave and associated area of low pressure is
drifting across the SRN great lakes early this morning, and is
resulting in periods of light rain for areas close to saginaw bay.

The rain has been aided by dpva and right entrance region upper jet
dynamics. Otherwise, sfc high pressure and drier air extending from
ontario down through the plains was working into the region. All was
relatively quiet.

The shortwave, associated sfc low pressure and forcing all press
eastward through the morning, ending all rain chances. The drier air
in northerly flow takes more control over the region, with scattered
cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon, coupled with some likely
increase continuation of higher level clouds within general upper
level troughiness and cool-ish conditions.

Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s with lows tonight in the
id to upper 40s most areas.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: by early Friday morning, two primary
weather features are expected to encompass much of the north
america. Once upper-level low across quebec and another pinwheeling
across the pacific northwest. In between, mid-level ridging
encompasses the midwest and western great lakes. Attendant surface
ridge axis is expected to wedge into the area through the great
lakes and ohio valley aiding to lead to a relatively tranquil period
of sensible weather overall before turning more active Sunday into
early mid next week.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: low end shower chances across
far southwestern locales... Mainly Saturday.

Fairly tranquil conditions expected across northern michigan Friday
as aforementioned surface ridging wedges into the region leading to
mostly sunny skies and light winds with near-normal temperatures.

Highs expected to range from the low-mid 70s area-wide... Coolest
near the lakeshores as afternoon lake breeze development seem like a
solid bet at this point. Overnight lows in the mid-40s across the
typically cooler inland locales of northeast lower and eastern
upper... To the upper 40s-low 50s elsewhere.

Meanwhile, more warm unstable air will be building off to our west-
southwest Friday through Saturday. A well-defined mid-level wave is
expected to be trekking across the midwest during the day Saturday,
which may send a few errant showers toward southwestern portions of
the forecast area, particularly midday Saturday into the afternoon.

By and large, however, would expect most areas to escape from any
shower activity and be rain free through the afternoon. High temps
climb a couple degrees over Friday's highs... Ranging from the mid-
upper 70s area-wide. Southeast winds may be just a bit too high to
allow for lake breeze development off of lake michigan, but
certainly will provide cooler temps near along the lake huron
shoreline and across southeastern chip mack counties.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
high impact weather potential: thunderstorm chances return at
various times Sunday into early next week.

A return to more active weather is anticipated at times Sunday
through the end of the forecast period toward the middle of next
week. Aforementioned mid-level ridging across the midsection of the
country Friday-Saturday will slide through the region for the
balance of the weekend into the start of next week. Focus will
initially revolve around shortwave troughing expected to cross
northern michigan during the day Sunday. The GFS is most bullish
with this wave, but some semblance appears on nearly all other
global models despite readily apparent timing amplitude differences.

As was alluded to by the prior shift, thunderstorm potential
(specifically severe weather potential) could become a bit
intriguing later Sunday into Sunday night and again Monday as
warmer more unstable air advects into the region ahead of a surface
warm front tied to low pressure set to cross the great lakes later
Monday Monday night. This coupled with strengthening winds aloft
may lead to an increased threat for a few stronger severe storms.

Certainly plenty of time for the details to come into line over the
next couple of days, but is a time frame worth monitoring.

Occasionally showery weather is expected to continue Tuesday-
Wednesday as the system continues to swing through the region.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 629 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
sfc low pressure was crossing the region early this morning, with
periods of light rain continuing near saginaw bay, south and east
of all TAF sites. The pressure gradient will be tight enough for
n NE to be a touch gusty at times today. However, high pressure
and drier air extending from ontario down through the plains will
slowly work eastward into the region later tonight into Friday.

This will result in no chances of precipitation, and a return of
light winds with lake breezes Friday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 319 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
sfc low pressure was crossing the region early this morning, with
periods of light rain continuing near saginaw bay. High pressure
extending from ontario down through the plains was slowly working
eastward and will overtake the region Friday. A loose pressure
gradient continues the theme of sub-advisory winds waves.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 35 mi30 min Calm G 1.9 56°F 54°F1 ft1008.4 hPa51°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 67 mi50 min NNE 8 G 9.9 56°F 59°F1008.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 69 mi40 min NNE 5.1 G 7 53°F 1006.8 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI15 mi25 minNNE 510.00 miFair61°F52°F75%1006.4 hPa
Cherry Capital Airport, MI19 mi27 minN 610.00 miOvercast60°F54°F80%1006 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI24 mi25 minE 710.00 miFair60°F50°F70%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN6CalmN6N4W5W6N5N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5
1 day agoCalmSW4CalmS7SW3W3SW5CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE7CalmW6NW5NW4NW7N5N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.