Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 12:17 AM   Moonset 8:11 AM

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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 949 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers in the late morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers and scattered Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday night - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 281720 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 120 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers again today into tonight with isolated thunderstorms possible.

- Rain and isolated thunderstorms Monday.

- Active pattern with rain late week.

UPDATE
Issued at 946 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Only minor tweaks to the inherited forecast this morning with more numerous showers near and south of M-55 that'll continue to gradually work north later this morning and afternoon. For more details, see the short-term forecast period below.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will continue to slide east of the Great Lakes today as ridging temporarily folds over the region. Meanwhile, longwave troughing ejecting over the Great Plains early this morning will lift into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A cold front will continue to push south of the CWA today, eventually mixing back north as a warm front late tonight into Monday as a surface cyclone associated with aforementioned troughing progresses across the Upper Midwest.

Forecast Details:

Showers today/tonight -- Isolated to scattered showers will continue across some parts of northern Michigan through the early morning hours behind the frontal passage, with most places seeing little to no additional measurable rainfall. After this, chances for showers will gradually increase from south to north today -- especially later this afternoon and tonight with enhanced warm, moist advection/isentropic ascent overspreading the Northwoods as the aforementioned system works closer to the region. While not expected, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled our later today and tonight. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures are in store today as highs stay in the 50s for most areas this afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low and subsequent sfc low pressure system will lift through the Upper Midwest on Monday spreading showers, in addition to isolated convection, into northern Michigan. Another piece of energy moving across the Upper Midwest and into Ontario Tuesday night into Wednesday will produce generally light rain across the area, favoring northern portions which will be closer to the forcing.
Potent trough digs into the center portion of the county late week forcing moisture and the chances for precipitation into northern Michigan late week as it advects northeastward.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Warm, moist advection takes place on Monday as sfc low pressure system lifts to the northwest across the Upper Midwest.
Consequently, expect showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. Another good shot for wetting rains for some. Few thunderstorms possible/will remain Monday afternoon before drier air works into the region Monday night. Another piece of energy will pass off to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday with generally light showers favoring the farther north you go in northern Michigan.

Energy enters the center of the CONUS mid-late next week, advecting moisture (PWs ~200% normal) and precipitation into Michigan as it moves northeastward. Guidance all suggest this outcome, just slightly different positioning of the upper feature and thus the subsequent sfc low and steadiest precipitation chances. Sfc low generally tracks near or to the northwest of N MI, thus could be another shot for thunderstorms. Ensembles show low probabilities for >500j/kg CAPEs at this time so just looking like rain with some isolated thunderstorms possible. After this system/frontal boundary passes it looks to turn cooler into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

MVFR to IFR CIGs continue to slowly expand across northern Michigan this afternoon in response to warm, most advection expanding into the region. This trend continues through tonight with increased probabilities for LIFR CIGs for a period of time tonight into early Monday morning. Waves of occasional showers and a few thunderstorms expected to accompany these lower clouds through the duration of the TAF period. East winds become breezy at times overnight into Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321- 322.

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