Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leland, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:15PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 7:46 PM EST (00:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:29PMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 322 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Thursday evening...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:201811150430;;305519 FZUS53 KAPX 142022 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 322 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-150430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, MI
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location: 45.02, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 142021
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
321 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 321 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Cold and becoming mainly clear tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of strong high pressure
remains centered from the great lakes thru the mid mississippi
valley into the southern plains this afternoon. Lingering light lake
effect snow showers continue to steadily diminish with building
subsidence and the arrival of drier air... With the majority of
returns on the latest kapx and kmqt base ref loops vanishing as we
speak. Afternoon satellite loops shows the same demise for residual
lake clouds... With a steady diminish in cloud cover from SW to ne
currently taking place across our cwa. Expect many locations will
see at least some Sun late this afternoon... And certainly expect
quite a bit of clearing tonight as the surface high drifts overhead
and then shifts just east of michigan later tonight. Clearing skies
and light winds will lend to a rather cold night across the
northwoods... With overnight lows dropping mainly into the lower 20s.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 321 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

A little milder Thursday and Friday then colder again...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Northern michigan will be squeezed in between an upper trough moving
by to the north and weak low pressure passing by to our south
Thursday into Thursday night. Some areas may see a little light snow
from the southern system, generally south and east of a line from
alpena to houghton lake. Meanwhile, the northern stream system may
bring a few snow showers across eastern upper Thursday night. The
trough will also usher in another shot of cold air later Friday.

Over lake instability will increase once again so expect mainly
light lake effect snow showers during the day Friday into Saturday.

The flow looks like it will generally be out of the northwest so
eastern upper and northwest lower will be the most likely areas to
see snow showers. Temperatures will be somewhat milder (but still a
couple of degrees below climatological normals) Thursday and Friday
then several degrees below normal once again Saturday.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 321 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Remaining unseasonably cold with occasional snow shower chances...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Upper level troughing remains across the region for the most part
through the middle of next week. Weak disturbances moving through
the flow along with over lake instability will lead to various
chances for snow showers. It will remain on the chilly side through
the scope of this forecast. However, milder temperatures may
eventually reach northern michigan thanksgiving day but extended
models continue to downplay a pronounced or long lasting warmup.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1215 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
strong high pressure and dry air will continue to build into the
western great lakes region tonight into Thursday. Any lingering
lake effect snow showers will end later this afternoon... With
decreasing lake clouds as we head into the evening hours. Overall
conditions will beVFR... With a few spots of MVFR within the
lingering light snow showers this afternoon. Winds will become
light variable tonight and then shift to the south AOB 10 kts on
Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 321 pm est Wed nov 14 2018
winds and waves will reach SCA criteria late tonight thru Thursday
along our lake michigan nearshore areas as S SW flow strengthens in
advance of our next low pressure system. Mainly dry wx is expected
tonight and Thursday... Before our next chance of snow develops
Thursday night into Friday as low pressure swings thru the great
lakes region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Thursday for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi66 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 24°F 1032.2 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 63 mi46 min S 11 G 15 29°F 1030.8 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI22 mi53 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds27°F16°F63%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W6W11NW10W11W9W9W13W7SW4SW5W5W8W5W8W7W4W6NW4S3SW5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW7NW5W5SW3N5NW7NW8NW10NW11
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2 days agoS334CalmSW3S3S3SW3SW3SW4SW4W3W5W4W7W7W11W7W8NW6W6W6W6W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.