Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:45PM Friday January 19, 2018 5:14 PM CST (23:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 8:16PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 245 Pm Cst Fri Jan 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
.gale warning in effect until midnight cst tonight...
Tonight..Southwest gales to 35 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt late. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft overnight.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt overnight. Chance of rain and snow in the evening...then rain with snow likely overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft overnight.
Monday..East gales to 40 kt. Rain and snow in the morning... Then rain in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Monday night..East winds to 30 kt becoming northeast. Rain showers with snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest gales to 35 kt. Chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ364 Expires:201801200415;;694625 FZUS63 KLOT 192045 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 245 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...While high pressure of 30.3 inches remains steady over the Southeast, low pressure of 29.2 inches will cross eastward into Quebec this evening. An associated cold front will weaken as it moves over the northern part of the lake overnight. Weak high pressure of 29.9 inches will prevail over the lake Saturday into early Sunday. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop across the central Plains Sunday afternoon. As this moves northeast and deepens to 29.4 inches, a warm front will lift northward across the lake on Monday. The low will pass across the the lake on Monday night at 29.3 inches and then continue onward to Quebec Tuesday. High pressure of 30.4 inches will return over the lake mid week. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-200415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 192024
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
324 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 322 pm est Fri jan 19 2018
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a quiet day across NRN michigan with a continual feed of weak
vorticity originating from troughing off the pacific coast, plowing
through the near zonal fast flow aloft. Another shallow shortwave
trough and associated sfc low is seen working through western
ontario, with a trailing weak cold front draped back through NRN mn
and eastern sd. Strong waa, mainly aloft, continues to increase this
afternoon, strengthening an inversion, and creating very stable
conditions that can't tough much of the strong SW wsw winds aloft.

Quite a bit of dry air remains below roughly 500mb, but a fairly
deep depth of higher level moisture within that pacific weak
vorticity feed, resulting in continued mostly cloudy skies.

Temperatures at the sfc have indeed not responded well to the
minimal mixing in the stable low layers, with readings mostly 35 to
40f.

Not much change in anything is expected through Saturday. The
shallow wave and low pressure in ontario will cross into quebec by
Saturday morning with the weak cold front passing through nrn
michigan. There is an indication that the higher level moisture can
sink down below 10ft across eastern upper, but there looks to be too
much dry air below that for any light rain snow. Upstream radar and
sfc obs confirming that, with no reports of precipitation. As the
front crosses tonight, maybe some pockets of low level stratus can
fire off, as seen in a few obs around the cold front, but the
signals for these low clouds in the fcst soundings are weak.

Otherwise, for Saturday, more weak energy aloft expected to roll
through with just some more mid high level clouds. The passage of
the cold front will at least allow for a shallow amount of mixing
that could result in some minor gusting, but winds aloft are
weakening through the day.

Nothing spectacular with no precipitation expected outside of the
real small chance for very very light rain snow in eastern upper
late this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Highs Saturday again in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 322 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Focusing on the storm...

high impact weather potential... Increasingly high.

Primary forecast concerns: precipitation type timing amount.

Energy currently across the southwestern states will emerge east of
the southern rockies and head northeast toward the western great
lakes over the next few days. Models continue to differ on the exact
track and resultant thermal profiles. The GFS nam canadian continue
to be the farthest northwest bringing warm air aloft across all of
northern lower. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to be the coldest and
farthest south keeping a mainly snow and sleet scenario for eastern
upper and much of northern lower. Because of uncertainty will
continue to leave all options open. Generally speaking the better
chance for an all or mostly all frozen event (snow sleet) is across
eastern upper with snow sleet freezing rain likely across far
northern lower. Farther south has the best chance for a change over
to all rain. Still a little too early to consider headlines as
impacts do not look to arrive until late in the 5th period (Sunday
night) or possibly even the 6th period. (Monday).

Saturday night into Sunday... Fairly quiet weather for the most part
as a strong area of high pressure ridges down from the north.

However, models continue to advertise a ribbon of warm advection
driven moisture across far northern lower and across eastern upper
Sunday. This would likely fall in the form of snow but with little
in the way of accumulation. Lows in the middle to upper 20s. Highs
in the middle to upper 30s.

Sunday night into Monday... A dry easterly flow will likely only
slowly moisten the column up Sunday night (lots of dry mid upper
level air per model soundings) depending upon your model of choice.

Models do agree that better moisture arrives during the day Monday
but differ on the form of precipitation as stated above. So expect
precipitation to over spread the region later Sunday night into
Monday morning and continue into Monday afternoon. Still can't pin
down snow ice amounts but this system has the potential for a large
impact. Lows mainly in the 20s and highs ranging from the upper 20s
north to the upper 30s far south.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 322 pm est Fri jan 19 2018
long range models are still in a bit of disagreement of exactly
where a low pressure system over the central plains will track

As it moves towards the great lakes region Monday night. This
sytem has the potential to produce any form of precipitation over
our forecast area... Especially northern lower, as eastern upper
should get all snow with any scenario. Confidence is still too low
to forecast exact precip type and amounts. Highs will generally be
in the mid to upper 20s through Thursday and then moderate into the
mid to upper 30s Friday. Lows Wednesday and Thursday will be in the
single digits to teens Wednesday and Thursday and then into the 20s
towards the end of the work week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1200 pm est Fri jan 19 2018
vfr conditions through the TAF period under a continual feed of
mid and high clouds. Very stable low levels will likely limit
gusting enough from stronger SW winds aloft will likely lead to
prevailing llws through much of tonight. Also, there are
indications of increasing shallow moisture late tonight into
Saturday with the arrival of a weak cold front. Could be some MVFR
at times, but not totally sold on this idea just yet.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Ajs
long term... Tjl
aviation... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi35 min SW 8 G 15 38°F 1000.7 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi35 min SSE 5.1 G 20 35°F 998.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi35 min SSW 15 G 18 34°F 999 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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NW2
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G32
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G30
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi80 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair37°F28°F71%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW17
G31
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SW8SW7SW8
G17
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmW7W7W5W10W10
G16
W12
G18
W9
G14
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G27
SW13
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.