Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:46PM Saturday September 23, 2017 7:48 AM CDT (12:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 8:45PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 244 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2017 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt by late evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft overnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201709231515;;799437 FZUS63 KLOT 230744 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 244 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Expansive high pressure of 30.1 inches centered over Lake Erie will move little through the weekend and gradually weaken early next week. Meanwhile, low pressure of 29.7 inches will move east across Ontario today, followed by another low of similar strength on Sunday afternoon and night. Low pressure around 29.6 inches is expected to develop across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday night and move northeast and deepen through midweek, with an associated cold front passing across the lake early Wednesday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-231515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231045
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
645 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 233 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Record-setting warmth again today...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air is holding in place from southern quebec thru most of the
great lakes region into the ohio valley early this morning...

maintaining unseasonably warm temps and mostly precip-free
conditions across this entire region. Remnants of the MCS that
impacted eastern upper michigan last evening are just exiting that
area... And line of convection that moved thru northern lower
michigan last evening is long gone... Leave dry conditions across our
cwa attm. MCS developed upstream along and north of the warm front
associated with low pressure developing over the northern plains.

Dwpts dropped into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the wake of last
evening's convection. Thus... Little in the way of fog has developed
so far.

As we head into today... The warm front will gradually lift
northward... Allowing surface ridging to reestablish itself across
our entire CWA for today and tonight. Strong subsidence... Dry air
thru the column and a strengthening mid level cap should preclude
additional convective development today and tonight. Latest SPC day
1 convective outlook generally agrees with this notion.

Another hot lake september day is expected across the northwoods.

Several locations will likely match or break MAX temp records again
today. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 80s in eastern
upper michigan to the low to mid 90s for most of northern lower
michigan. Expect another muggy night as temps drop into the 60s and
dwpts hold in the 60s as well.

Records for today:
record (year)
glr 83 (2004)
tvc 90 (1937)
apn 89 (1937)
anj 84 (1936)
htl 88 (1937)
pln 86 (2004)

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 233 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

String of record breaking temperatures continues...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: no meaningful changes to the large scale pattern
are expected through early next week as troughing remains anchored
over the intermountain west with downstream ridging over the eastern
two thirds of conus. Riding across the ohio valley great lakes
characterized by unseasonably high 500 mb heights from 588-590 dm
for the first few days of autumn. Surface high pressure overhead
combined with limited deep layer moisture should limit much in the
way of precip potential locally.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: warm and humid weather
continues through early next week. High temperatures are expected to
remain as much as 20-25 degrees above normal through Monday. Dew
points varying through the 60s will provide a mid summer-like feel
across northern michigan under partly to mostly sunny skies.

High temperatures both Sunday and Monday are expected to challenge
records at most climate stations. The following are current records
(sun mon):
anj: 88(1892) 83(1908)
glr: 86(2007) 76(1958)
htl: 86(2007) 91(1920)
tvc: 89(2007) 89(1908)
apn: 89(2007) 85(1935)
pln: 87(2007) 80(2007)

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 233 am edt Sat sep 23 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Upper ridging remains persistent across the region through Monday
night before beginning to break down as an area of low pressure over
the upper mississippi valley ontario and attendant cold front
extending southward into the southern plains will bring increased
cloudiness throughout the day Tuesday and renewed shower chances
Tuesday night through Wednesday. After the cold frontal passage, our
extended summer-like weather will go by the wayside as high
temperatures struggle to rise much above the mid-60s for most on
Wednesday. Even cooler (below normal) for Thursday-Friday with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s. A more unsettled pattern is anticipated
for the end of the week as well, with occasional showery periods now
out of the question.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Sat sep 23 2017
vfr conditions are expected today and tonight as strong high
pressure remains firmly in control of the wx across northern lower
michigan. SW winds around 10 kts today will again become
light variable tonight.

Marine
Issued at 233 am edt Sat sep 23 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Sunday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Sunday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi58 min S 9.7 G 12 68°F 66°F2 ft1017.2 hPa (+1.4)
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi68 min S 8 G 13 69°F 1017.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi68 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 1016.3 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi68 min SW 6 G 7 67°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi52 minSW 310.00 miFair76°F66°F71%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS7S9
G14
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SW7SW8SW5W7NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS9
G14
CalmS4S6S5S4SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmW4W5W5W7W6SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmE5
2 days agoSE5SE8SE9
G14
SE7S8S10S11S10
G14
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G15
SE6CalmCalmCalmSE7SE10
G16
SW4S9
G15
CalmSE3NW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.