Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM   Moonset 1:08 PM

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LMZ364 Expires:202405022115;;491408 Fzus63 Kmkx 021345 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 845 am cdt Thu may 2 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure of 29.6 inches over the central plains will lift to central wisconsin by mid evening, continuing northward tonight. East winds are expected ahead of a warm front today, becoming southerly behind the front this evening into early tonight, and then westerly by early Friday. Areas of fog will be possible tonight into early Friday as higher dewpoints advect through the area over the colder waters of lake michigan.
lighter winds are expected Friday under high pressure of 30.0 inches. Winds will then likely be 15 knots or less through the upcoming weekend, with high pressure in place much of the time.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-022115- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 845 am cdt Thu may 2 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of today - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tonight - Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt veering to south 10 to 20 kt. Rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 021724 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 124 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers/few thunderstorms tonight and Friday.

- Smaller chances for precip this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Synopsis/pattern: Surface high pressure extends from western Lk Superior to southern lower MI. This high slides off to the east late today and tonight, allowing low pressure in s central Canada to push another cold/occluded front toward the area.

Forecast: After a (mostly) quiet day today, another round of showers/storms is expected tonight.

Low clouds and fog are common from the Straits area northward.
DZ has been reported at both CIU and Soo Canada early this morning, and will add that to the grids thru mid-morning. Mid and high clouds ahead of our next system will push back into nw lower MI by late morning, and expand east thru the afternoon.
Generally on the cloudy side in the north, while the se third of the forecast will see the most sun. But, with a developing se surface breeze, they will be kept cool by an onshore breeze from Lk Huron and Saginaw Bay.

A warm front lifts into southern WI and far sw lower MI this afternoon. MlCape values of up to 500j/kg will be seen, upstream of our area. Convection could be kicked off upstream, and start to make inroads into western sections late today. A small chance for showers late this afternoon/early this evening, west of I-75 in both peninsulas. Perhaps nw lower MI sees a rumble of thunder.

Max temps from the mid 50s (near Lk Huron) to upper 60s/near 70f (MBL-TVC-CAD).

500mb ridging shifts east to the eastern lakes, with height falls and a speed max entering northern WI/upper MI/Superior.
Increasing low-level southerly flow/moist advection ahead of the occluded front will contribute to precip developing tonight.
MuCape values of 500-750j/kg may scrape by southern portions of the forecast area. Likely to categorical showers and a few t-storms are forecast to expand w to e, with parts of ne lower MI remaining in just chancy pops thru the night. Best shear remains upstream tonight (behind the occluded front), and progged shear/instability does not appear to conducive to svr storms. Small hail may be a possibility with any stronger t-storms.

Min temps low 40s near Lk Huron to low 50s nw lower MI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

An area of low pressure located northwest of the Great Lakes Region, will influence sensible weather for most of the long term. As the low pressure and associated trough swing north of the region, a myriad of boundaries will be brought near and through northern Michigan late this week. By the beginning of next week, height rises will lead to quieter weather before another low pressure works its way into the region by mid-week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Chances of precipitation and possible thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and possible thunderstorms for Friday. A general tenth of an inch of rain can be expected for most areas, but it cannot be ruled out that some may receive more if convective thunderstorms develop overhead. More energy moves over the region for Saturday into Sunday, bringing another quick shot of light precipitation to the area with embedded thunderstorms possible. As heights rise going into the new week, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, by mid-week, guidance is hinting at active weather returning to the region, so be sure to check back with the forecast as we continue to fine tune these details!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to continue across northern Michigan through this evening into tonight as clouds begin to spread overhead. Showers and a few thunderstorms look to work from west to east later this afternoon and evening, with widespread rain chances anticipated tonight. CIGs look to degrade from west to east tonight with aforementioned rain moving in, dropping to MVFR/IFR for a several hour window late tonight into Friday morning. Drops to MVFR and even IFR VSBYs will be possible at times with BR/FG Friday morning as well. Conditions look to improve back to VFR by the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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