Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

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Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday July 22, 2018 11:26 AM CDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 1:30AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 831 Am Cdt Sun Jul 22 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Isolated showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft late.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less overnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt backing to southwest. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201807222130;;875279 FZUS63 KLOT 221331 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 831 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.7 inches over the upper Ohio Valley will linger today. A ridge of high pressure of 30.1 inches over the northern Plains and upper Midwest will move across the western Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. Low pressure of 29.8 inches will across Ontario Tuesday night through Thursday while deepening to 29.6 inches. This low will send a cold front across the lake Wednesday night. High pressure will return next weekend. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-222130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221449
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1049 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Update
Issued at 1049 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
morning composite analysis reveals our slow moving stacked low
centered over ohio. Secondary strong short-wave impulse and
attending surface low is rotating up through pennsylvania new
york. Nice moisture feed band of widespread precip arcs off the
atlantic and through new england then back across far southern
quebec and ontario with the short-wave and within a well defined
deformation axis north of the parent low.

Across our area, a bit of a break in the rainfall for the moment
along with some thinning of the clouds and little sunshine in some
areas.

Rest of today: strong short-wave impulse and axis of deformation
forcing will slide back into lower michigan through the course of
the afternoon, before stalling and weakening tonight. This will
push the upstream showers back into at least the eastern part of
the CWA as we go through the afternoon, and I have updated the
forecast accordingly. Instability has been steady dwindling over
the last few days. Thunder possibilities look minimal if not non-
existent.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Still some lingering wet weather...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: vertically stacked, cut-off low pressure
continues to slowly pinwheel across the ohio valley at this early
hour. Waves rotating back west on northern periphery of parent
system continue to interact with overhead deep moisture (00z local
sounding with a rather robust 1.65" precipitable water measurement),
producing bands of light to moderate showers. Most prominent source
of lift now rotating off to our southwest, taking best shower
coverage along with it. Just a bit of drying noted in the h8-h7
layer now starting to rotate in from the east, as evident by flow
within that layer backing a bit more northeast and by a decrease in
shower coverage and organization across northeast lower michigan and
lake huron.

Kinda an interesting forecast heading through today and tonight as
while primary low continues to slowly pivot south with time, strong
vort and additional upper level jet energy currently rotating north
across the mid-atlantic states will attempt to sling-shot back west
into the eastern lakes tonight. This will allow overhead troughing
to linger a bit longer than earlier anticipated, and when combined
with some lingering moisture, may be enough to kick off some
additional light shower activity for at least parts of the area
right through tonight (and perhaps even Monday).

Primary forecast concerns challenges: addressing that additional
mostly light shower potential, along with temperature and cloud
trends.

Details: initial best shower potential looks to exit quickly early
this morning as vort MAX and surge of deepest moisture pivot off to
our southwest. Per upstream radar trends and expected non-existent
instability, would expect an extended period of mostly dry weather
to develop this morning into at least the beginning stages of this
afternoon. There may be a few lingering light showers rotating
overhead, but these definitely look to be few and far between, with
most areas and most of the time likely remaining dry, albeit mostly
cloudy. That mid-atlantic moisture attempts to push back west into
the area later this afternoon into the overnight. Now, that moisture
plume will be thinning with time, and the accompanying low mid level
dynamics are nothing too impressive. Still gotta believe more light
showers will back west with time, at least bringing the threat for a
bit more wet weather to much of our area by this evening and the
early overnight. Best shower coverage looks to focus across
northeast lower michigan later this afternoon and early evening, but
even there, additional rain amounts look to remain light. Clouds in
no hurry to exit, with mainly cloudy skies expected right through
tonight, with perhaps a few more breaks in the overcast across
eastern upper michigan. Temperatures today look similar to those
experienced yesterday, with highs mostly ranging through the 70s.

Coolest readings will be found across northeast lower michigan where
northeast winds will bring in some lake huron modification. Those
same winds favor some downslope across eastern upper and northwest
lower michigan, where the warmest temperatures will reside. Lows
tonight ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Slowly drying out through early this week..

High impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: this weekend's well advertised stacked low
pressure system slowly meandering from the great lakes into the ohio
valley is now expected to pose forecast issues right into the start
of next week. Guidance over the past 24 hours is now hinting at
developing ridging over the western atlantic allowing little in the
way of eastward progression with cutoff upper level low pressure
spinning in the vicinity through at least Monday. Weak high pressure
is still expected to arrive Tuesday behind a weak mid level
perturbation ejecting from southern canada.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: any lingering pops Monday.

While not high impact, nuisance showers may continue right into the
day Monday as lobes of deep moisture and forcing pinwheel around the
aforementioned upper level low expected to be stretched from the
southeastern states right up through northern michigan. Pops
certainly won't be very high throughout the day Monday and it's
unlikely that everywhere will continue the occasionally wet weather,
but none the less, there may be some showers to contend with around
parts of the forecast area. Otherwise, will trim high temperatures
back into the mid-upper 70s as mostly cloudy skies will likely limit
the amount of daytime heating.

Early Tuesday morning, a weak northern stream shortwave is expected
to be trekking west to east across the northern great lakes. An
attendant frontal boundary may be enough to squeeze out an isolated
shower (mainly across eastern upper), but otherwise little in the
way of sensible weather is anticipated as weak high pressure presses
into the region from the west. Partly sunny skies will allow
temperatures to climb several degrees above Monday's highs... Ranging
from near 80 degrees at the lake shores to the mid 80s inland.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Primary focus through the extended forecast period revolves around
the Wednesday night through Friday timeframe as a well-defined wave
and associated strengthening surface low are expected to trek from
southern saskatchewan into southern quebec by the end of the week.

This system will have the potential to bring occasionally unsettled
weather to northern michigan with the highest chances for
precipitation arriving on Thursday in association with the system's
cold front crossing the forecast area. However, pockets of wrap
around moisture lingering into the end of the week may continue
on off shower chances Friday into Friday night.

Above normal temperatures Wednesday will be followed by a cooling
trend to wrap up the week with the coolest day on Friday as current
trends suggest high temperatures struggling to reach much past the
low 70s for most.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 628 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
plenty of clouds and perhaps a few light showers will continue to
rotate back west across the area through tonight. Thinking
predominatelyVFR conditions today as that cloud deck remains
elevated. Deeper low level moisture arrives tonight, especially
impacting northeast lower michigan and kapn, where MVFR to ifr
conditions are expected. MVFR CIGS expected elsewhere, although
kmbl looks to stay removed from this lower overcast. Light winds
through the period.

Marine
Issued at 159 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
winds will continue to slowly back, becoming northeast to northerly
today and tonight as weak ohio valley surface low pressure gradually
drops further south. Pressure gradient between this system and high
pressure well off to our north remains rather weak, resulting in
what should be sub-advisory wind gusts. Will need to closely monitor
the nearshore waters of northeast lower michigan where longer fetch
may tip the scales to some low end advisory small craft conditions
this afternoon. Conditions favor light winds across all the big
waters Monday through at least the middle portions of this week.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... mb
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 16 mi57 min NE 12 G 14 69°F 61°F1015 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi37 min N 16 G 19 67°F 67°F3 ft1014.5 hPa64°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi27 min NE 12 G 19 71°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.3)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi47 min NNW 8 G 8.9 62°F 1015.9 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi47 min N 8 G 15 68°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi32 minENE 710.00 miFair75°F64°F69%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N5E4CalmN3N5N4NE5NE5N4NE4CalmN3NE5NE4NE6NE5NE5N5N3N4N4NE5NE10
1 day agoSE14
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E6E5E4E4E4E4E4NE7NE5E3NE5NE5CalmNE3NW3N3NE5NE5
2 days agoS7W7W6S7SW8S6S5S4CalmE4CalmSE6SE4SE5SE5SE3SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.