Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 2:01 AM   Moonset 10:29 AM

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LMZ364 Expires:202404301515;;361541 Fzus63 Kmkx 300800 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 300 am cdt Tue apr 30 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
southerly winds will be generally under 15 knots today, as high pressure of 30.0 inches slides through the area. Southeast to south winds will increase tonight, as low pressure of 29.5 inches lifts northeast through northern wisconsin. Breezy west to southwest winds are expected on Wednesday behind the departing low and as high pressure of 30.0 inches builds in from the west. Another low of 29.6 inches will lift through wisconsin Thursday into Thursday night, bringing breezy east to southwest winds to the lake.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-301515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 300 am cdt Tue apr 30 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast late in the evening, then increasing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight increasing to 15 to 25 kt late. Rain showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Thursday night - East winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southeast to 30 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Friday - South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 300746 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower chances late tonight/Wednesday morning.

- Drier and breezier Wednesday pm, with potential fire wx concerns.

- Rain returns late Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Synopsis/pattern: Occluded 1007mb surface low is near MQT, with a triple point low near GLR. This system will weaken as it moves ne. High pressure briefly noses in from the se late today, up until another upstream low heads toward Lk Superior tonight.

Forecast: A few showers are present in ne lower MI, and in parts of upper MI. These will move out of ne lower over the next few hours, but will linger longer in eastern upper MI. Cloud cover is abundant upstream in WI and upper MI; perhaps places near/south of M-72 will be partly sunny at times this morning, but for the most part mostly cloudy skies prevail. A convergence zone will up over the east half of upper MI today, with chilly Lk Superior pushing this boundary slowly southward with time.
Though surface heating will be limited, there still may be just enough instability to crank up a few showers this afternoon in eastern upper MI. Small pops have been added up that way. Max temps from the lower 50s north to mid 60s southeast.

Tonight, warm advection wing of better mid-level theta-e advection develops quickly eastward into northern MI. The evening/early overnight look dry, but models have been more aggressive in allowing to develop overnight, ahead of the incoming elongated low pressure. Have expanded pops late overnight across most of northern MI. QPF looks mainly light, 0.10" or less, highest near Lake MI in both peninsulas. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Oddly elongated upper low/short wave will be skirting the far northern portions of our county warning area early on Wednesday. Low pressure system/associated weak frontal boundary will move through the area as well midday. Just enough forcing will result in rain showers with generally light accumulations. Energy embedded within southwest flow in addition to warm moist advection due to lifting warm front will contribute to an increase in rain chances Thursday and Thursday night. Cold front associated with a potent wave across the N Plains and Upper Midwest will move into the region on Friday with continued showers possible along that boundary. Another quick hitting disturbance this weekend will produce the chance for more minor showery activity.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain showers expected early on Wednesday due to a passing disturbance aloft, but quick clearing and drying expected by the afternoon hours for most of the region (eastern upper may have some lingering showers). PBL heights expected to increase near 5kft across portions of the area (especially southeastern). Thus, increasingly dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the region during the afternoon hours. At this time, do not think it'll be a major fire wx concern unless conditions are drier and windier than currently expected (and really might not be broad enough spatially, who knows), but worth fine tuning in the next two fcst cycles.

Warm moist advection (in addition to some embedded energy aloft)
will produce the opportunity for rain showers Thursday and Thursday night across the area. Weak sfc front will move through on Friday focusing additional shower development. Might be some low end, meager instability thus there could be a few rumbles of thunder during this time (instability values continue to be meager within the ensemble envelope (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) as well with <10% probs for 500j/kg of CAPE), but progged soundings are really not all that impressive. Ensembles suggest best chance for wetting rains (say 0.5" or so) will be across the western shores of northern lower into eastern upper due to closer proximity to the lift and initial tongue of moisture. Clearing can be expected later Friday, then mild temperatures continuing into the weekend with the chance for a few more rain showers due to a passing disturbance.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Occluded low will lift thru Upper Michigan and Lake Superior overnight...and then thru Ontario Monday into Monday night.
Residual scattered rain showers will come to an end overnight...
leaving low stratus and areas of fog into Tuesday. IFR conditions will hang on across Eastern Upper and far Northern/NE Lower Michigan overnight into Tuesday morning. Mainly low VFR conditions are expected around TVC and mbL overnight into Tuesday morning. Conditions will steadily improve Tuesday afternoon and evening as a narrow ridge axis builds into Michigan. Light easterly winds will shift to the west at around 10 kts on Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Gaylord, MI,