Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:50PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:17 AM CST (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:16PMMoonset 10:36AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:201901241030;;828679 Fzus63 Kmkx 240224 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 824 Pm Cst Wed Jan 23 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.2 inches will move into quebec tonight. A strong cold front will then move across the region Thursday, with gusty west to northwest winds expected behind it for Thursday afternoon into Friday, slowly weakening Friday night. Very cold air will combine with the winds to bring the potential of heavy freezing spray Thursday night into Friday night. A heavy freezing spray watch is in effect for this period across lake michigan. More rounds of gusty winds, building waves, and heavy freezing spray will be possible at times this weekend into early next week, as the very cold airmass lingers across the region. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-241030- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 824 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
.heavy freezing spray watch in effect from Thursday evening through late Friday night...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds to 30 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday night..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..East winds to 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240445
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1145 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Update
Issued at 1000 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
departing low pressure center has reached SE ontario late this
evening and continues to pull NE away from michigan. Meanwhile...

a secondary arctic cold front is poised just north of minnesota.

Caa is happening across the western great lakes region in the wake
of the departing low... But significantly colder air is poised just
behind that arctic front (a taste of things to come for the
weekend and thru much of next week). All synoptically-driven
precip has ended across our cwa... But NW flow lake effect snow
showers are quickly developing as CAA commences. Still expect snow
showers overnight will be relatively light (generally an inch or
less for our typical snowbelt areas)... But certainly expect areal
coverage will continue to increase as over-lake instability
increases.

Allowed the winter wx headlines to expire on time earlier this
evening as the synoptic event came to a close. Quickly issued
winter wx advisories for our snowbelt areas for Thursday afternoon
thru Friday for the development of accumulating lake effect snow
showers... Strengthening winds and very cold temps wind chills.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 416 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

System snow coming to an end; lake effect develops tonight...

high impact weather potential... Minimal as lingering snow gradually
diminishes with little additional accumulation, but maybe some light
icing from freezing drizzle late this afternoon. Light lake effect
overnight will pose minimal impact.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Afternoon surface analysis shows the
surface low just about to move over saginaw bay. Low mid level water
vapor imagery shows a pronounced dry conveyor belt nosing into wi,
gradually creeping into lower michigan. In response, moisture has
been stripping out of the column fairly rapidly from top down across
the area, and this will continue heading into early evening. The
weakening deformation zone continues to pivot across northern
michigan back into green bay, with fgen response rapidly
diminishing. All this has led to the snow activity quickly
diminishing in coverage and intensity across the forecast area over
the last couple hours. The last of the deformation band snow
currently coming ashore from lake michigan isn't nearly as intense
or widespread as earlier activity and will just pose a nuisance more
than anything with temporary reductions to visibility - not much
additional accumulation is expected to come from it. Considered
dropping all remaining headlines at 4pm, but we actually have some
freezing drizzle currently here at the office. Soundings weren't
really showing this, but it appears the moisture has stripped out
sufficiently to temporarily preclude ice nucleation. Evening shift
just arrived to say roads were getting slick, so just decided to
keep existing headlines going and will mention possibility of light
icing from a brief period of freezing drizzle through early evening.

This last wave of light snow should taper off across northern lower
and eastern upper by early evening.

Cold air advection ramps up aloft this afternoon evening on the back
side of the departing low with 850mb temps becoming marginally
supportive (-12 to -14c) for lake effect activity developing
tonight. An influx of much drier air as well as rather weak low
level lapse rates overnight will limit intensity and coverage of the
bands as inversion heights drop below 5000 ft. Winds backing from nw
to wnw will also fan out the bands, reducing the impacts in the
snowbelts across eastern upper and northwest lower. Not really
impressed by hi-res guidance for tonight, so kept pops and qpf
somewhat limited. Perhaps a half inch to an inch of additional
accumulation overnight in the snowbelts. Lows tonight will drop into
the teens for most areas.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 416 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Turning sharply colder with lake effect snow...

high impact weather potential... Moderately high.

Primary forecast concerns... Snow accumulations through the period.

Thursday into Friday... An alberta clipper and associated arctic cold
front are still on track to move across the region later Thursday
into Thursday evening. So ongoing generally light westerly flow lake
effect early in the day will be enhanced Thursday afternoon by the
short wave which moves by to the north. The flow will then veer into
the northwest late in the day into much of Friday. Low mid level
moisture looks really good (850-700 mb rh is 70 to 80 percent) so
favored spots in northwest lower and eastern upper will likely
see between a few and several inches of snow accumulation with
lesser accumulations elsewhere. The combination of lowered
visibility from small snow flake sizes along with some blowing and
drifting snow, the accumulating snow and low wind chill
temperatures will lead to the issuance of a winter weather
advisory for much of northwest lower michigan from Thursday
afternoon right on through Friday evening. Accumulations in the
advisory area will generally range between 3 and 8 inches (but
would not be surprised if there are some higher amounts).

Friday night... The flow slowly shifts from westerly to
southwesterly. This will obviously will shift any ongoing lake
effect snow bands to closer to the lake shore.

Highs Thursday in the lower to mid 20s but falling during the day
afternoon. Highs Friday generally only in the single digits above
zero. Lows Thursday night in the single digits above and below zero
with lows Friday night in the single digits and teens below zero.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 416 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Bitter cold with rounds of accumulating snow...

high impact weather potential: more periods of accumulating snow
along with bitterly cold temperatures.

Short waves look to enhance lake effect activity while shifting the
bands around Saturday into Sunday. Attention then turns to a
possible storm system moving up from the central plains early next
week. Some extended model guidance really wraps up this system.

Gusty winds in combination with very cold air will lead to very low
wind chills through the period. In addition, visibilities will be
lowered at times due to small dendrites (snow flakes). The one
limitation may end up being increasing ice cover on the great
lakes due to the very cold temperatures. Temperatures will be
upwards of 20 degrees below average through the period with highs
mainly only in the single digits above zero (a few spots may not
even break above zero Sunday and Wednesday) with lows in the single
digits and teens below zero (even some 20s below zero Monday
morning).

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1145 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
low pressure will continue to pull NE away from michigan overnight.

A secondary arctic cold front will sweep thru michigan on
Thursday... Bringing extremely cold air into our region that will
last thru the weekend and thru much of next week. NW flow lake
effect snow showers will continue to develop as colder air
arrives tonight into Thursday. Overall conditions will remain
MVFR... Dropping to ifr within heavier snow showers. NW winds aob
10 kts overnight into Thursday morning will strengthen to 10 to
20 kts with higher gusts Thursday afternoon with the arrival of
the arctic front.

Marine
Issued at 416 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
northwest winds will pick up a little late this afternoon into the
evening as low pressure departs over lake huron. Advisory level
gusts may occur over portions of lake michigan and lake huron, with
winds and waves then diminishing overnight. An arctic cold front
will sweep through on Thursday, with stronger advisory level nw
winds expected to develop in the afternoon, persisting through
daybreak Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from noon Thursday to 7 pm est Friday
for miz008-019>022-025>028-031>033.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Thursday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Friday for lmz345-346.

Update... Mr
near term... Mk
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mr
marine... Mk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi37 min WNW 18 G 21 27°F 1006.4 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi37 min W 4.1 G 8.9 19°F 1007.1 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi37 min WNW 12 G 13 20°F 1006.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi22 minNW 710.00 miLight Snow25°F17°F71%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmN3N5NW9
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NW6NW8NW6NW7NW4NW4NW3
1 day agoSE9SE9SE5SE8SE7SE11
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2 days agoE4E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE5E5E3S4S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE6SE7SE6SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.