Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:07PM Monday October 15, 2018 6:31 AM CDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:30PMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 856 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi North...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday evening...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt during the evening, then becoming southwest gales to 40 kt overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft.
Friday..West gales to 40 kt becoming northwest gales to 35 kt. Waves 10 to 14 ft occasionally to 18 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ364 Expires:201809192030;;883157 FZUS63 KLOT 191356 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 856 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.1 inches over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will gradually shift northeast tonight. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains tonight and then lift northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday evening. The low will track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night while dragging a strong cold front across the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region Saturday. LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-192030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 151045
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
645 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 231 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Cold and rainy today with a mix of snow in some locations...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A cold front is making its way thru our
cwa early this morning. Showers are increasing in areal coverage
over our CWA as a wave rides along the front thru lower michigan.

Rain showers are mixing with and in some locations have changed to
snow showers across eastern upper michigan where temps have cooled
into the low to mid 30s. Precip remains all liquid across northern
lower michigan where temps remain in the 40s.

Widespread precip will continue to develop early this morning across
our entire CWA as that wave slides thru the region along the cold
front. Cold FROPA this morning will lead to diminishing pops from
west to east in the wake of the front... Beginning around mid morning
and continuing into the afternoon hours. Synoptic event will
transition into a lake enhanced event later this afternoon and early
evening as low level CAA commences. Also... W NW winds will
strengthen in the wake of the cold front today... Gusting to 30 kts
at times. All remaining precip will come to an end later this
evening and overnight as high pressure and drier low level air build
into michigan.

Temps will be noticeably colder today... With high temps ranging from
the upper 30s and lower 40s across the NW two-thirds of our CWA and
in the mid 40s near saginaw bay. Low temps tonight will drop mainly
in the lower 30s... With slightly warmer temps downwind of lake
michigan.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 231 am edt Mon oct 15 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal aside from a few low end gale
force gusts on lake michigan and huron early Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis: brief surface and upper-level ridging are expected
to be evident Monday night before a well-defined shortwave aloft and
attendant area of surface low pressure pass to our north, dragging a
cold front across northern michigan Tuesday morning. This will set
the stage for another shot of colder air Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday with lake effect rain snow showers expected. By late
Wednesday Wednesday night rising heights aloft are expected to be
the rule with shortwave ridge axis crossing overhead during the day
Thursday. Combined with strong surface high pressure anchored to our
south should provide plenty of influence to taper any lingering lake
induced precipitation by Wednesday evening.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: lake effect shower chances
Tuesday through Wednesday.

By the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning, a cold front is
expected to be crossing northwest to southeast across the forecast
area... Tied to the aforementioned area of low pressure trekking
south of hudson bay. Will continue to carry mainly chance pops
across far northern areas with the frontal passage itself before
much colder air aloft pours into northern michigan Tuesday afternoon-
Tuesday night... Setting the stage for increasing lake induced shower
chances. Most widespread lake effect shower coverage expected to be
in west-northwest flow favored lake belts Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning as h8 temps fall to -6 to -9 c (delta TS over 20
c) and inversion heights climb to 7.5-8 kft... In addition to
increased synoptic support and pockets of deeper moisture as the
trough axis rotates overhead. Wouldn't be surprised if most of this
activity falls in the form of wet snow Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning, primarily across upper and interior northern
lower given decreasing freezing levels... Progged to steadily fall
below 1,000-1,200 ft. By 04-06z. This perhaps leading to a minor
accumulation (generally an inch or less) in any steadier more
persistent snow showers able to gain connection from lake superior
and lake nipigon in south-central ontario.

Precip chances slowly wane throughout the day Wednesday given
decreasing deep layer moisture (but will likely continue in isolated
to scattered fashion longer than guidance suggests as so often
happens given slow-to-retreat cold air aloft). Will extend low-end
pops into Wednesday night across wnw flow lake belts before waa
really takes over by early Thursday morning. Quiet weather
anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period on Thursday
as low-level winds back more southwesterly aiding to boost high
temperatures into the low 50s for most (some 10-15 degrees warmer
than the mid-upper 30 degree highs expected on Wednesday).

Pressure gradient over northern michigan will remain a bit robust at
times through Wednesday given system after system marching through
the region, which will lead to gusty daytime conditions. Will have
to monitor potential for a few low end gale force gusts towards
saginaw bay and over northern lake michigan early Tuesday. If these
were to materialize, they'd occur over a rather brief period of time
and would be pretty isolated.

Long term (Thursday night through Sunday)
issued at 231 am edt Mon oct 15 2018
another well-defined trough and associated area of surface low
pressure dive south out of canada late in the week, dragging a cold
front through northern michigan. This will aid to usher in yet
another shot of cold air aloft leading to more lake effect rain snow
showers by Friday night, continuing at times through the upcoming
weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Mon oct 15 2018
colder air will advect into northern michigan today and tonight in
the wake of a cold front moving thru our region early this
morning. Widespread synoptic rain will transition to lake enhanced
rain showers today and early evening. Remaining ifr CIGS will lift
to MVFR as this occurs. All shower activity will end later this
evening and overnight as high pressure and drier air build into
the region... WithVFR conditions returning to the region. W nw
winds of 15 to 25 kts will occasionally gust to 30 kts today into
this evening... And will then shift to the SW and diminish to
around 10 kts late this evening and overnight.

Marine
Issued at 231 am edt Mon oct 15 2018
winds and waves will reach gale warning criteria within most of our
lake huron nearshore areas today and tonight... And SCA criteria
within the rest of our nearshore areas as W NW winds strengthen in
the wake of a cold front. Widespread showers (mainly rain with a mix
of snow for some locations) will gradually diminish once the cold
front passes... And will transition to lake enhanced showers later
today into this evening before ending later tonight as high pressure
builds into the region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lhz345-349.

Gale warning from noon today to 8 am edt Tuesday for lhz346>348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi22 min NW 18 G 21 41°F 55°F1014.6 hPa32°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi52 min NW 15 G 18 41°F 1014.2 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi52 min WNW 8 G 12 39°F 1014.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi31 min NW 8 G 16 37°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi37 minNW 57.00 miLight Rain38°F36°F92%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4SW5SW4S7SW7SW9
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SW6SW9S7CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5N10
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1 day agoNW6W5W4SW7W11
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2 days agoNW9
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W9W8W6W6W5W5W4W7W7W6W7NW9NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.