Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glen Arbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:41PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:06 PM CDT (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:12PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:201904202130;;216755 Fzus63 Kmkx 201352 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 852 Am Cdt Sat Apr 20 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.5 inches over pennsylvania will move into western new york this evening while weakening to 29.7 inches. Brisk northerly winds will continue over southern lake michigan into this afternoon. Meanwhile, weak high pressure of 29.9 inches will move into lower michigan today, then into the northeastern part of the country tonight and Sunday. This will bring light winds for tonight, with south winds gradually increasing on Sunday. Low pressure of 29.7 inches should then move from kansas to lower michigan Sunday night through Tuesday. Winds may be gusty at times during this period, becoming north on Tuesday. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-202130- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 852 am cdt Sat apr 20 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then becoming south 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Chance of rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Chance of rain. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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location: 45.02, -86.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201526
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1126 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Update
Issued at 1122 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
plenty of sun-filled skies across the area this morning as even
the high clouds near saginaw bay, tied to ohio valley low
pressure, have greatly thinned in the last few hours. Would expect
these to fill in just a bit, with mostly sunny skies prevailing
elsewhere. All that Sun already doing a number on temperatures,
and still expect readings during the afternoon to climb well up
into the 50s (coolest near lake huron), with a few locations
likely topping 60 degrees.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
high impact weather: minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
really quiet in NRN michigan tonight with very dry air and
relatively higher pressure sneaking in from the west. Skies were
clear and temperatures were cooling decently in most areas. This is
due to weakening N NE winds in many areas, especially low lying
areas away from NE lower where the gradient remained a bit more
tightened. We typically get quite the range under these conditions.

Right now, we have readings ranging from the upper 20s in those low
lying areas, to the lower 40s in some coastal locations. There were
two areas of low pressure. One was lifting slowly north from the
ohio valley and the other moving east through far NRN ontario. The
one lifting from the ohio valley, was resulting in plenty of showers
across the eastern part of the conus. Part of these showers were
pressing north toward the thumb of lower michigan.

Not much in the way will occur today. The very dry air mass will
slowly drift in over NRN michigan today and tonight. Very sunny
skies expected across most of NRN michigan. Across portions of far
ne lower, some thicker cloud cover will arrive later today, but
latest trends suggest that there is very little chance for those
showers to reach the SE cwa. These clouds will slide east of ne
lower tonight, while weak low pressure works across upper michigan.

The air mass will gradually moisten ahead of this low pressure, but
this will mainly occur in the mid and upper levels resulting in
increased cloud cover.

Highs today will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s in most
areas, to as low as the lower half of the 50s across a good chunk
of NE lower. Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower to middle 30s,
with some potential upper 20s in low lying areas.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The overall pattern looks to be evolving
as expected for the next few days. The zonal flow just north of the
border(canada) looks to continue based on the SREF gfs ECMWF 500 mb
patterns through 12z tues. So the details look like this... Sunday
morning, the moisture is returning along the zonal jet stream at 500
mb along with the thermal ridge nosing into ontario lake superior
and along the warm front that is setting up, that stretches back
into the plains. Through the day, the pattern sinks south a bit, as
the 500 mb trough in the west begins to rotate into the desert sw,
and the eastern 500 mb low is beginning to fill and move a bit ne
off new england. As the moisture returns along the warm front, the
chance for rain showers increases, but with the zonal flow, and the
lack of vigorous shortwaves, rain showers fairly scattered through
Sunday night and into Monday morning. The pattern and scattered
showers look to continue into Tuesday morning as the desert SW low
continues to dig and rotate, and the eastern low moves off shore.

Primary forecast concerns... The showers look mainly scattered, but
the main concern would be if we could get any thunder. Models show
weak jet streaks at 500 mb with the peak winds around 35-40 knots
through the period, and little CAPE or elevated CAPE (mucape between
50-150j kg). So will don't think thunder is likely, but there is a
small chance.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

The western 500 mb trough digs into the desert SW while the
eastern low has departed the conus. This allows the jet stream to
sink south a bit, and allow for some drier air to settle into the
upper great lakes Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Thursday, the scattered showers are back as a 500 mb jet streak
noses into the upper great lakes. However, the duration of the
showers is in dispute between the wetter GFS and the drier ecwmf.

The difference today is the ECMWF has moved the desert SW low into
the gulf states, and deepened it. This slows the pattern down as
the 500 mb shortwave moving through the upper great lakes is
connected to the gulf low. This keeps the energy with the 500 mb
low, than with the shortwave in the great lakes, and keeps us
drier than the GFS solution. By Friday, things dry out, but
another shortwave begins to move into the upper great lakes as it
moves out of the 500 mb ridge in the rockies.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 648 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
low pressure in the ohio valley will lift up into the eastern great
lakes tonight. SolidVFR conditions will dominate all airports over
this TAF period, with only some increased mid and upper clouds late
tonight, ahead of a cold front that settles in for Sunday. Winds may
be a tad gusty out of the NE today, but lighten up and become more
variable tonight.

Marine
Issued at 309 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
low pressure in the ohio valley will lift up through the eastern
great lakes through Sunday, when a cold front falls into northern
michigan and stalls out for Sunday night when there will also be a
chance for showers. Advisory level NE winds will still impact lake
huron nearshore waters south of alpena for today, before winds
become light and more variable with the incoming cold front.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lhz348-349.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... Smd
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi86 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 36°F 1013.5 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 50 mi86 min NE 5.1 G 8 47°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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G31
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NE1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi11 minNNW 510.00 miFair55°F23°F30%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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CalmCalmN4NE4NE3NE4N5CalmCalmNE3NE6NE6N4N6NE7N9
1 day agoNW3NW8NW8NW8NW9
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NW4N9
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N9N6N5N7N8N6N5N7N8N7N10
G16
2 days agoSE10
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S8E6E9
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G24
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W7CalmW4CalmNW3NW4NW5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.