Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alpena, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:34PM Thursday September 21, 2017 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:40AMMoonset 7:36PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 409 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201709220415;;727665 FZUS53 KAPX 212009 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 409 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-220415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpena, MI
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location: 45.07, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211957
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
357 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 353 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Record high temperatures likely again Friday...

the unseasonable heat and high humidity is expected to continue over
the next several days. This is due in large part to a large and
blossoming upper level ridge which will park itself over the central
and eastern states.

Have only been able to pop a couple showers or storms near and over
lake huron thus far this afternoon due to a lack of a definitive
trigger in combination with dry mid upper levels. So with that in
mind don't expect too much more activity to form for the remainder
of the afternoon and evening. Have backed off pops into the low
chance slight chance category, mainly only across northeast lower.

Could be a few showers or storms across the northern quarter of the
forecast area overnight as a surface warm front moves across the
region but overall not a whole lot of activity is expected.

Remaining warm and muggy overnight with patchy fog. Lows only in the
middle 60s to near 70. Hot and humid conditions again Friday as
ridging aloft dominates. More record high temperatures are expected.

Model soundings show a moderate cap in place which should stave off
convective development. Highs ranging from the middle 80s to lower
90s as 850 mb temperatures push 20c with good mixing.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 353 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Warm and humid air mass to occupy northern michigan this
weekend...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: deep positively-tilted trough dominating the
western half of north america this afternoon... With broad but
"dirty" long wave ridging over eastern north america. This ridge
being sullied by a broad weakness in the pattern over the mid-
atlantic and southeastern u.S... And of course the continued
adventures of tropical cyclones "jose" and "maria" in the western
atlantic. This basic upper air configuration persists into the
weekend... With a closed upper high building northeast from the
southern plains across the great lakes (500mb heights near 590dm).

Weakening cold front is pressing across michigan... Main
baroclinicity over the next several days will be west and north of
michigan... Curving around the upper ridge. Weak height falls Sunday
will nudge a southwest-northeast orient front into lake superior and
western upper.

Primary forecast concerns: warm and humid weather heading into the
weekend... With a rather moist air mass in place resulting in mild
overnight lows (in the 60s versus normals in the mid-upper 40s).

Highs Saturday and Sunday are going to threaten records at most
climate stations. Records for this weekend include (sat sun):
anj: 84(1936) 88(1892)
glr: 83(2004) 86(2007)
htl: 88(1937) 86(2007)
tvc: 90(1937) 89(2007)
apn: 89(1937) 89(2007)
pln: 86(2004) 87(2007)
dew points are expected to remain in the 60s through the weekend...

so will definitely have a mid-summer feel to the first official
weekend of autumn. Little rain threat is anticipated through the
weekend... With best rain chances expected to remain north of lake
superior.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 353 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017
high impact weather potential...

the persistent upper level ridging holds firm for the start of the
extended period, through Tuesday anyhow... Keeping precipitation and
unseasonably warm readings locked in over the great lakes. On
Wednesday... The log jam begins to break, and the troughing that had
been present over the central CONUS shifts east. This will result
in quite the drastic pattern flip, bringing widespread rain chances
for Wednesday and much cooler temperatures by Thursday... .As the h8
zero degree isotherm drops as far south as the northern lower.

Precip chances on day seven are up in the air yet... However, I think
it's reasonable to think we could be looking at some lake effect
rain. But that's a long way off yet and we'll keep an eye on it.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 136 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017
there could be a few popup showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening from the heating of the day, best chance is at apn
with lesser chances at the other TAF sites. Patchy fog and
possible areas of low clouds may form tonight in the humid
airmass. Mostly sunny hot and humid conditions expected during the
day Friday.

Marine
Issued at 353 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017
continued light winds through tonight. Southerly winds will ramp
up Friday into Friday night as the surface pressure gradient
tightens up. Some choppy conditions will develop on lake mi,
especially toward the far north end of the lake. Advisory-level
waves are a possibility.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... As
short term... Jpb
long term... Kb
aviation... As
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 1 mi53 min SE 7 G 11 72°F 1016.5 hPa66°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 1 mi33 min ESE 12 G 15 70°F
45162 11 mi43 min Calm G 7.8 68°F 66°F1 ft
TBIM4 13 mi33 min ESE 9.9 G 12 69°F
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 37 mi93 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 68°F 66°F2 ft1016.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI7 mi29 minENE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F69°F82%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11SE6SE3SE7CalmSE3CalmS3S3SE4SE3NE15E6SE5S7S8S6S7S7S6S6E7NE9NE9
1 day agoNE7E6E4E7NE3CalmSE3SE3SE5CalmE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E6E8SE8E5E8E7E10
2 days agoN6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN4E10E12E9SE8E7E7SE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.