Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baileys Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:15PM Monday March 27, 2017 9:25 PM CDT (02:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:37AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 900 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing.
Tuesday night..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
Wednesday..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy.
LMZ541 Expires:201703281000;;187381 FZUS53 KGRB 280200 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 900 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-522-541>543-281000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baileys Harbor, WI
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location: 45.07, -87.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 272333
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
633 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Tuesday
issued at 244 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017
the latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a shortwave
trough moving over northeast minnesota and western lake superior
early this afternoon. Scattered showers continue to develop ahead
of the shortwave over north-central and far northeast wi. Think
will see the showers continue to develop through the rest of the
afternoon. But drier air lies just to the west, with the leading
edge of the clearing approaching rice lake and hayward. Meanwhile,
high pressure is building south over manitoba. Forecast concerns
include shower potential extending into this evening, followed by
cloud trends and fog potential.

Tonight... Shortwave trough will continue to move northeast over lake
superior tonight. Mid-level moisture will depart with the shortwave
early in the evening, so think the light shower activity will have
mostly departed by 00z. Attention then turns to cloud trends.

Nearly all guidance shows drying coming in from the north as
canadian high pressure builds into the region. How quickly that
occurs varies from model to model, and generally sided with the
slower rap, which was not that different from the previous forecast.

If clearing does occur late in the evening into the early overnight
across northern wi, then there is potential for dense fog/low
stratus to redevelop as temperatures cool under light winds. With
the late departure of the clouds over central and east-central wi,
however, do not think will see those same trends further south. Low
temps falling into the mid 20s north to the mid 30s south.

Tuesday... High pressure will continue to build south into the
region. Any lingering low clouds and fog will look to dissipate by
mid-morning as dry air gets mixed down from aloft. Then should see
ample sunshine for the rest of the day. Quite a difference of 925mb
temps in the models, but trended warmer towards the ecmwf, since
think bias corrected grids may be influenced from the cooler/wetter
pattern of the past few days. Highs ranging from the mid 40s near
the lake to the mid 50s over central wi.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
issued at 244 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017
quiet weather to start the long term, then a low pressure system
will bring precip chances to the area Thursday into Friday, but
the 12z/27 models have shifted south, keeping the bulk of the
precip south of the area. However, questions still remain if this
shift is temporary or if it will stick. Near normal temperatures
are expected wed-fri then above normal readings return for the
weekend.

Dry conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as
surface high pressure slides across ontario and mid-upper level
ridging pushes across the great lakes. Mostly clear skies are
expected to start Tuesday night, but mid-upper clouds will be
approaching as moisture increases ahead of the next system, so
not expecting much sunshine on Wednesday as mid clouds are
expected with highs mainly in the 40s.

Attention turns to the system ejecting out of the southwest u.S.

On Wednesday. GFS remains farthest south with the track and
associated precip, and now has the system completely missing the
area. Canadian trended south on its 12z/27 run, with most of
central and north central wi missing out on any significant
precip, but still brings up to 0.75" of liquid to east central wi
Thursday and Thursday night (seems to be the outlier now). The
12z/27 ECMWF trended to the south as well, keeping the swath of
heavier precip just to our south across southern wi and only a
tenth or two of liquid over far east central wi. Models are
trending south, but a flip- flop is always possible with these
systems so confidence on how this system will play out remains on
the low- medium side.

Bottom line... The chances for getting any accumulating snow and/or
heavy precip looks to be diminishing at this point, due to a
southern shift to the system keeping the bulk of the precip over
southern wi. Plus, ground temps will be pretty warm, with much/all
of the frost out of the ground across east central wi thanks to
the recent rain and above freezing temps. Would need to get into
the heavy precip to cool the boundary layer sufficiently for snow
and to get anything to stick on the ground. Will reduce pops
significantly across central and north central wi and keep nearly
the entire area dry on Friday.

Canadian shows lingering moisture in the cyclonic which would
keep a few showers around Friday night into Saturday morning, but
other models are dry. Will lean toward the drier models. A mid-
level shortwave will cross the northern great lakes on Saturday,
with a secondary shortwave right on its heels for Sunday. Both
could touch of a few showers, but at the surface weak high
pressure will be in place, plus there will be no deep moisture to
work with so activity is expected to be isolated at best. In
addition, not much skill in trying to time these fast moving
features this far out. Will keep pops on the low side or out of
the forecast all together until the picture gets a little clearer.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 631 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017
MVFR ceilings clearing from northwest to southeast overnight,
though low clouds could form where skies are clear for several
hours. So look for some clearing this evening but possible areas
of low clouds late tonight where skies do clear. Skies should
become mostly clear by 15z Tuesday with good flying weather
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Short term... ..Mpc
long term... ... Bersch
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SYWW3 - Yacht Works Sister Bay WI 9 mi170 min Calm G 0 37°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi46 min Calm G 0 36°F 1015.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 18 mi46 min Calm G 0 36°F 1015.9 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 24 mi38 min S 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 1015 hPa35°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi38 min Calm G 1 37°F 1015.3 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi46 min Calm G 1.9 37°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sturgeon Bay, WI20 mi90 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F36°F93%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N9N10N7NW5NW5NW6W4NW5--N5N7N8N5N5--N8N5N5NE4N6N4CalmCalm
1 day agoNE8NE11
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E6--NE7E5E7E7E6NE6NE6E7E5NE5E3NE4NW5N5N7N6
2 days ago--N14N11NE9NE7NE9NE9NE10
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NE10NE9NE8NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.