Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baileys Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:23PM Saturday November 17, 2018 1:11 PM CST (19:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 1:24AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1243 Pm Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
This afternoon..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Sunday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
Sunday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow after midnight.
LMZ541 Expires:201811172315;;451981 FZUS53 KGRB 171843 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1243 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-172315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baileys Harbor, WI
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location: 45.07, -87.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 171708
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1108 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Sunday
issued at 258 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
fairly quiet weather expected in the short-term forecast; however,
there will be some light lake effect snow over vilas county along
with continued below normal temperatures.

Today: the low pressure system that moved just to the south of the
area this morning will continue to shift off to the south and east
throughout the day. This will allow any light system snow to quickly
come to an end early in the day. Any impacts from the light snow
should be very limited. Otherwise, broad strong high pressure will
begin slide eastward from the northern plains this morning into the
western great lakes region this afternoon. Ahead of the ridge and
behind the departing low pressure system northwest winds will slowly
shift westward as the high pressure center is expected to be
southwest of the area. The northwest winds, along with 850mb
temperatures around -15c, will lead to continued lake effect clouds
and snow showers across north central portions of wisconsin. This
will be most notable across vilas county; however, only an inch or
two is expected. Late in the afternoon, as the winds shift to the
west, any lingering lake effect snow will shift northward into the
u.P. And diminish as drier air moves into the area. It will be a
chilly day with highs in the 20s to low 30s with at least a light
breeze throughout the day.

Tonight into Sunday: the aforementioned high pressure system will
slide across the region through this time period, allowing for quiet
weather. Skies will be mostly clear through this time period, with
the only impactful weather expected to be the continued cold
temperatures. In fact, portions of north-central wi and the typical
cold spots may drop into the single digits above zero, while the
rest of the area drops into the low to mid teens above zero. Some of
the guidance is even colder; however, opted not to go with the
coldest guidance as there will likely be a light breeze through the
night as the high pressure center remains south of the area. Highs
Sunday will be in the 20s to low 30s, coldest over central and north-
central wi.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
issued at 258 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
the main concerns for this forecast period are the chances for
precipitation, especially early in the week. A low pressure
system, along a southward moving cold front, will pass through
wisconsin late Sunday night Monday. Models showed some
differences in location but the 00z nam, gfs, ECMWF and canadian
all have the QPF focused across northern wisconsin Sunday night.

Have mainly confined snow chances to the north Sunday night and
then increased pops across the rest of the area Monday morning.

Snow chances will be mainly in the lake superior snowbelt Monday
afternoon and early evening as the surface system departs. The
model blend only showed a slight chance for snow Tuesday night but
would not be surprised if the day shift needs to increase pops for
northeast wisconsin Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Dry
weather is expected for Wednesday and thanksgiving day but models
diverge toward the end of the week and onset of the next round of
precipitation remains in question. Stuck with the blend and have
some light snow early on Friday changing to rain across the entire
area before noon.

Flow aloft will be out of the northwest early in the week with a
high amplitude ridge over western noam. The ridge should break
down as it makes its way east during the week. Flow is expected to
become southwest by Friday as the ridge axis passes east of
wisconsin. The transition from northwest to southwest flow will
bring a warming trend. Near normal temperatures should return by
the middle of the week and readings should top out several degrees
above normal on Friday.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1029 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
scattered to overcast sky conditions will persist through mid to
late afternoon across the region, before skies gradually clear
into the early evening hours. A few MVFR CIGS will persist this
afternoon, particularly over north-central wi. Once skies clear
early this evening, good flying weather is expected through the
end of the TAF period.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Cooley
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Mpc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 15 mi31 min NW 9.9 G 13 30°F 1026.4 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 18 mi31 min NW 6 G 8 30°F 1026.8 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 24 mi41 min NW 9.9 G 13 30°F 40°F1026.7 hPa-2°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi41 min N 6 G 9.9 31°F 1026.4 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi31 min NNW 5.1 G 8 29°F 1026.8 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI20 mi15 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F16°F58%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW17
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NW12NW9NW11NW12NW9NW12N9NW7NW11N10N12NW12NW11N14
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NW11N9N9Calm
1 day agoS7S7S8S9S9SW4S8S7S8S7SW8SW6W9
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2 days agoS4SE9S7S8S5S5S4S7S6S7S6S7S6SW5SW4S5S5SW3S5S6S8S9
G14
S12S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.