Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Calais, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:24PM Thursday September 21, 2017 3:57 AM ADT (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 7:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 1012 Pm Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 8 am edt Thursday...
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt...becoming se around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ005 1012 Pm Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Tropical storm jose will track se of cape cod overnight then begin turning back S on Thu. High pres will build down from the N Thu into Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calais, ME
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location: 45.08, -67.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 210530
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
130 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
Tropical storm jose will remain southeast of CAPE cod
overnight, then stall and begin to retreat back south. High
pressure will build south across the region overnight through
Friday.

Near term overnight through Thursday
130 am update... Adjusted the sky conditions to bring
percentages up across the downeast region per the latest satl
imagery. High clouds from jose as far as northern areas W mot of
this being thin allowing for temps to fall back. Speaking of
the temps, made some adjustments to lower overnight lows a few
degrees especially back across the NW areas. Sites such as
escourt station could see upper 30s by morning as drier air
continues to work its way s.

Previous discussion...

a strong high pressure ridge will persist to the north of the
state blocking any further northward movement of jose. This
ridge is expected to slowly drift to the south over the next 24
hours and remain strong and continue to block northward movement
of jose. Mostly sunny skies are expected across the region
Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will range from around 70
to the lower 70s north, to the lower to mid 70s downeast.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
High pressure will stretch across the area Friday and Saturday,
keeping it dry and mostly sunny across much of the area. As
jose continues to linger well to the south, some clouds may
linger along the coast and over the marine zones. Some models
show occasional light QPF over the waters and along the
immediate coast, but at no particular point was there enough
confidence to go for any mention of showers. Above normal temps
will continue across the state for the end of the week, with a
further warm-up expected to begin Saturday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Sun and Mon will be very warm for late september, with highs at
least 10 to 15 degrees above normal, especially on sun. In some
spots, highs may approach record levels, though on both days
there is some concern that clouds may seep into the northern cwa
from a boundary slowly sagging south through quebec. This front
may push through the CWA later Mon or Mon night, bringing a bit
of a cool down for mid-week - though in this case, it may only
revert toward normal temps. A complicating factor for Tue night
onward is the possibility of showers or steadier rainfall moving
into the state, drawn northward along the frontal boundary from
maria and or the remnant low of jose. Most of the models show
some variation on this idea, but given the long forecast lead
time and the tendency for significant variations in tropical
cyclone track forecasts at that time frame, decision was made to
follow gyx's lead and cap pops at around 40 for now.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Near term: occasional MVFR ceilings are possible along the
downeast coast into the early morning hours. Otherwise,VFR
conditions are expected overnight through Thursday.

Short term:VFR conditions are expected thurs night through
Saturday at all sites. Exceptions include patchy fog for khul to
kfve Fri night, and for a slight risk for occasional MVFR cigs
at kbhb.VFR conditions are expected again Sun and Mon for all
sites, except for possible MVFR CIGS in any widely isolated
shower activity for kpqi thru kfve.

Marine
Near term: winds have been slow to increase early tonight.

Thus, have extended the small craft advisory for hazardous seas
though 8 am with this update. Visibilities will be reduced in
areas of fog overnight. Have used the NAM to initialize the wind
grids Thursday, however will reduce model winds by 15 percent
to adjust expected high bias due to the inversion resulting from
the relatively cold sea surface temperature resulting in an
inversion in the boundary layer. For waves: the primary wave
system is the long period swell emanating from tropical storm
jose. Wave heights are expected to increase a few feet tonight
to a maximum of 11-12 feet 11-12 seconds tomorrow morning then
begin to slowly subside. Due to boundary conditions mentioned
above, a secondary northeast wind wave system has been slow to
develop and not expected to increase to levels advertised by
wind models. Will initialize the waves with the nearshore wave
prediction system (nwps) then lower the waves heights by 1 foot
to adjust bias resulting from the boundary layer conditons.

Short term: seas will remain elevated above SCA levels into
Friday, but may finally drop below criteria Fri evening or
night. Ne'ly winds will remain strong Thu night into fri, but
gusts should drop below 25kts Fri afternoon, and both winds and
seas should remain below hazardous levels through Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
Currently long period swell from jose which is running at 11
seconds 7-8 feet continues to enter the gulf of maine. Waves are
expected to increase in height tonight then begin to slowly
subside Thursday morning. Will extend the high surf advisory
through the day Thursday. Concern is that long period waves high
impact in the surf zone, and can run up much higher on the
shore than shorter period waves resulting in the danger of
spectators being washed into the ocean. Dangerous rip currents
are also expected.

Warm air over sea surface temperatures in the 50s is creating a
strong inversion in the boundary layer and making it difficult
for stronger winds aloft from reaching the ocean surface.

Therefore model wind forcing is showing a high bias. As a result
expect increase water level from storm surge to remain well
under 1 foot. Also wave period has decreased somewhat today.

Therefore concern for splash-over and overtopping from long
period waves is reduced. High tide tonight is at 11:50 pm and
Thursday afternoon at 12:13 am. There could be some minor slash-
over around these high tide cycles, however impact is now
expected to be minimal.

Total water levels inland from the coast are not expected to be
high enough for flooding.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... High surf advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for mez029-030.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am edt this
morning for anz050>052.

Near term... Hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSBM1 - 8410140 - Eastport, ME 14 mi39 min N 13 G 14 61°F 54°F1016.9 hPa
CFWM1 - Cutler Farris Wharf, ME (8411060) 30 mi39 min ENE 7 G 12 66°F 53°F1014.9 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 75 mi39 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 66°F 57°F1015.5 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 86 mi113 min NNE 16 G 18 60°F 54°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Eastport, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME80 mi61 minN 910.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F63°F90%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6N7NE6NE6NE6NE6--NE6NE11NE11NE11NE15
G19
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1 day agoN3--CalmN3N4--CalmCalmE4E5E4E5E4E3E5CalmCalmNE5NE5E4NE3E3N3N6
2 days agoS4SE4SE3CalmE3SE4CalmS5S33E4SE4E4E5E4E4E5E3E3E4E4E3N5NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Robbinston, Maine
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Robbinston
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:04 AM EDT     21.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     -1.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:26 PM EDT     21.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     -1.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.720.517.112.36.91.8-1.3-1.12712.918.221.22118.314.18.93.7-0.3-1.30.85.110.716.4

Tide / Current Tables for Gleason Cove, Western Passage, Maine
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Gleason Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     20.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     -1.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:25 PM EDT     20.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     -1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
20.719.516.211.66.41.6-1.3-126.812.417.420.22017.413.38.33.3-0.3-1.30.8510.315.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.