Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Egg Harbor, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:42PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 2:12 PM CDT (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 11:58PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1009 Am Cdt Wed Jun 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S wind increasing to 20 to 30 knots with a few gusts possible as high as 35 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 7 ft. Periods of showers with Thunderstorms possible.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering ne after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
LMZ521 Expires:201706282215;;956142 FZUS53 KGRB 281509 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1009 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-282215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Egg Harbor, WI
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location: 45.09, -87.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 281753
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1253 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 1240 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017
the severe weather potential later today is still very much in
doubt. The initial band of rain is moving across the area now,
supported by several small impulses embedded within the mid-level
wave crossing the region. Satellite indicated mid-level dry slot
trying to advance into western wisconsin, though convection has
been regenerating at the nose of the dry slot. Overall, short-
range guidance is in decent agreement in showing a second round of
convection developing over western northwest wisconsin by mid-
afternoon, and then pushing across the forecast area during the
late afternoon and evening. Local meso plots indicate
destabilization is occurring back over minnesota, and gradually
expanding east with time. So although the window for severe storms
across the area may not be large, it is still there. Most likely
time frame seems to be from 5 pm to 11 pm.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Thursday
issued at 339 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
a low pressure system will track over the upper mississippi valley
today, then continue east through the western great lakes tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the low over
minnesota is progged to continue east through the CWA during the
morning hours. These storms are not expected to be severe.

The main question for later this afternoon and this evening is how
much the atmosphere can recover for severe potential later in the
day. Given the high Sun angle, a large window is not needed for
recovery. Models show mucapes increasing to 1000 to 2000 j kg
during the late afternoon and early evening hours as the warm
front associated with this low advects east. In addition a fairly
substantial PV anomaly will track through the area during the
afternoon and evening hours. Given the instability and lift there
is a slight risk for severe storms later today and into the
evening hours, particularly across central and east-central
wisconsin given the proximity to the warm front and the axis of
greatest instability. Model soundings show the main threat will be
large hail and damaging winds, however isolated tornadoes are
possible given the proximity to the warm front and enhanced low
level shear this will provide. This will be highly dependent on
building enough instability after the morning convection comes
through, however it is enough of a risk to upgrade in line with
the latest SPC day 1 convective outlook.

The low will advect a moist airmass north over the western great
lakes today, as pwats increase to 1.5 to 1.75 inches. The high
moisture content combined with the vigorous dynamics and the
several rounds of rain expected will bring the potential for a
substantial amount of QPF today and tonight.

Mostly dry weather is expected on Thursday as the low tracks off
to the east and drier air advects in from the west. Despite the
passage of a cold front temperatures are expected to be a bit
warmer during the afternoon hours with some sunshine expected at
times.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
issued at 339 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
active pattern expected to continue into early next week as 500mb
trough gradually moves across the area this weekend, then east of
the area early next week. The first wave of low pressure is
expected to approach the area later Thursday night into Friday
morning. A few of the models also depict convection breaking out
with the return flow, so there may be some showers and storms
Thursday evening ahead of the main system. Low pressure is
expected to move across the region on Friday. I was hoping for
better resolution of the details of this system which would
have impacts on potential severe weather and also problematic
for wind wave forecasting on the bay of green bay and lake
michigan. Current thoughts system will pass overhead or just
to the south of the area during the day Friday. Showers and
storms are expected during the day which will also impact
high temperatures. If an easterly wind component develops
if system passes to the south would support high temperatures
several degrees cooler than the current forecast. Later shifts
can fine tune the details.

Northwest flow aloft and the next disturbance will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. The greatest risk
of thunderstorms would be Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Precipitation would more than likely end Saturday
evening. The latest model trends are slow with system on Sunday,
bringing much of the precipitation into the area Sunday night into
early Monday morning. Continued a small chance of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday with higher chances on Sunday night.

Continued a small chance of showers and storms on Monday across
our southern counties. Dry conditions should prevail on Tuesday.

Only minor changes to MAX min temperatures during the period.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1240 pm cdt Wed jun 28 2017
timing of shra tsra and ceilings are the main aviation forecast
concerns. As mentioned in the update above, the initial band of
shra should exit the area. There will then likely be a second
round of tsra during the late aftn evening. Timing strength of
those storms is very much in question, so made a guess at most
likely timing in the tafs with the expectation that will probably
need adjustment later. The guidance is pretty aggressive with low
ceilings overnight. There are plenty of low clouds out there now,
but wonder how many will remain once the initial band of rain
shifts off to the ne. Went with a little more optimistic ceiling
forecast in the tafs, though confidence in that aspect of the
forecast is also low.

Marine
Issued at 339 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
southerly winds will increase across the nearshore waters
today and tonight. This will cause winds to increase into the 25
to 30 knot range, with a few gusts around gale force at times,
especially across the lake michigan nearshore waters. Waves will
increase with the increasing winds, with the highest waves across
the lake michigan nearshore waters. Recent model runs have backed
off a bit on wind speeds, therefore will continue with the small
craft advisory as gale force gusts appear to be less likely with
this issuance. Any boaters planning on traveling today and tonight
should follow future forecasts closely.

Hydrology
Issued at 339 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
periods of heavy rainfall are likely with a widespread 1 to
2 inches across much of the state today and tonight. The greatest
potential for locally heavier rainfall will likely be with any
training thunderstorms along a warm front forecast to lift north
later today and this evening. This could cause rivers, that are
already above bankfull, to rise and bring the threat for flooding.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Beach hazards statement through Thursday morning for wiz022-040-
050.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski
marine... ... ... Kurimski
hydrology... ... Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 10 mi33 min SE 5.1 G 12 62°F 1009.5 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 19 mi33 min S 9.9 G 18 61°F 1010.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi43 min S 9.9 G 14 1008.8 hPa
45014 35 mi43 min SSE 14 G 18 64°F 1009.3 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 45 mi43 min S 18 G 20 57°F 1010.4 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 47 mi33 min S 20 G 24 60°F 1010.2 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 47 mi83 min S 19 G 23 59°F 53°F4 ft1010.5 hPa (-2.9)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI19 mi17 minS 1410.00 miLight Rain61°F57°F90%1011.8 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi17 minS 710.00 miLight Rain64°F61°F90%1011 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8SW10SE11S8S9SE6S5S6S7S6S7S7S9S7--S9S8S9S15
G19
S12S16S11S15
G21
S9
1 day agoW10NW9NW8N10N9NW8W4CalmCalmS3SW4SW4SW5W5W3W3------NW6W5N64W7
2 days agoW7W5SW9S6W6
G14
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W11--W9
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W10NW12
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.