Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Athens, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:38PM Saturday February 23, 2019 8:31 AM CST (14:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:50PMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Athens, WI
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location: 45.09, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 231150 aaa
afdgrb
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service green bay wi
550 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
updated to add short term portion for morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 549 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
a major winter storm, then colder next week.

The upper ridging which has been persistent over the northeast
pacific will shift northeast, with the positive upper height
anomaly strengthening over alaska. That will leave a highly
split blocky pattern over the eastern pacific with the main
branches of the flow merging back together over central and
eastern north america. The large scale changes will result in a
transition from the active southwest flow regime to a much colder
but more tranquil northwest flow. The intense cyclone crossing the
area the next couple days will bring heavy precipitation ensuring
above normal amounts for the period, though subsequent
precipitation events are expected to be modest. After today,
temperatures will settle to below normal levels, which will likely
persist beyond the end of the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Sunday
issued at 549 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
headline management this morning was about as challenging as i've
ever encountered for a winter event. The main changes with the
morning issuance were to align the advisory for expected trends
and to upgrade most of the watch to a warning.

The two precipitation events comprising the short-term could not
be handled more differently by the models. Consistency in the
handling of the lead precipitation band has been and continues to
be very poor. Tried to align pops with the radar trends, which
would support more precipitation into east-central wisconsin than
depicted by most of the models. Dry air initially in place should
allow for evaporational cooling aloft and a period of snow. By
the time warmer air arrives aloft, surface temperatures in east-
central wisconsin will be at least near if not a little above
freezing. The most likely area to get some freezing precipitation
is north of highway 29 later this morning. Not sure the snow will
justify an advisory, but since one was already out and there is
some potential for a period of freezing precip, let it ride with
adjusted start times. Also expanded it up the western shore of the
bay since freezing precip is more likely there. Carried that
portion right through the main system. By the time the precip
gets to door county, it should primary be just snow changing to
rain, so left the door out of the advisory.

It still looks like there will be a lull in the precipitation,
though perhaps a little later than earlier expected. Limited
moisture aloft may allow the light precipitation to be fzdz even
over the far north. Rather than have a few hour gap in the
headlines from auw-ezs while a chance of fzra fzdz was still in
the forecast, just extended the advisory for this area through to
the start time of the warning.

The primary cyclone will head northeast today, and arrive in the
area tonight. Models have been quite consistent in the handling of
the main system. The main band of precipitation should surge
north across the area between 00z and 06z. Behind that, mid-level
moisture could strip out over all but the far northwest part of
the forecast area as a large dry slot surges north, changing
precip to fzdz light fzra. Adjusted probicepresent grids to allow
for some light freezing precipitation across most of the area in
the wake of the primary band. Expect convective elements within
the dry slot to still produce bursts of heavy precipitation.

Confined the highest snow totals to the far NW part of the area,
with the warning being more for mixed precipitation from central
through northeast wisconsin. Dense fog still looks possible in
east-central wisconsin overnight, especially when winds slacken as
the cyclone center tracks over or very close to the area.

Lingering precipitation should change to snow as the cyclone
begins to pull away from the area. But the rapid progression and
only semi-closed nature of the upper circulation will not allow
the deformation zone to completely pivot back southeast across the
area. That will limit snowfall potential in east-central wisconsin
on the back side of the system. But strong winds will be a
significant concern. The cyclone keeps deepening as it departs,
with the rap taking it down to 967 mb NE of the soo. Any areas
that have significant accrual of ice from fzra will be very
susceptible to having tree and power line damage. Areas that
received mainly snow could experience near white-out conditions,
even in north-central wisconsin which is typically the least
windy part of the area. Even light snow in east-central wisconsin
could result in very hazardous travel conditions when combined
with the wind. A winter weather advisory may be needed over east-
central wisconsin for late tonight into Sunday, but will leave it
for later shifts to handle that since we need to clear the current
advisory for the area first.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
issued at 350 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
the main story for this period will be the diminishing winds
Sunday night, then well below normal temperatures for the
first half of the work week. Temperatures will modify some by
late in the week, although should remain a few to several degrees
below normal.

For Sunday night, wind gusts close to 40 mph are still possible
early Sunday evening. Winds should gradually subside during the
night. After highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s on Sunday,
temperatures by sunrise on Monday morning should be in the single
digits below to around 10 below zero across north-central and
central wisconsin and around zero from the fox valley and
lakeshore region. The combination of the cold and northwest winds
around 10 mph will push wind chill readings into the 20s below
zero across north-central and central wisconsin. A wind chill
advisory will likely be needed for late Sunday night through late
morning on Monday. Highs on Monday will range from 5 to 12 above
zero. Another cold night is in store Monday night with lows
ranging from around zero near lake michigan to the teens below
zero across north-central wisconsin. Wind chills again could drop
to 20 below to 25 below zero across north-central and central
wisconsin. A wind chill advisory may be needed for this region,
depending if winds stay up through the night.

The system for early next week has been problematic over the last
few days. GFS has been most consistent bringing snow across the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has varied
greatly from run to run with a feature on one run and then nothing
on the next run. Tonight, the ECMWF has system moving across the
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will continue with current blend
of pops to account for the variances in the timing and location of
the system. 850mb temperatures modify some by the end of the week
should allow for temperatures to return closer to normal, yet will
be a few to several degrees below normal. Low confidence in the
timing of the system later in the week.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 549 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
poor flying conditions due to heavy precipitation, low ceilings
and visibility, and llws are expected as a major cyclone crosses
the region.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for wiz038>040-
048>050.

Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for wiz035>037-045.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for wiz020-
030-031.

Winter storm warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday
for wiz020-030-031-035>037.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for wiz005-
010>013-018-019-021.

Winter storm warning from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday
for wiz011>013-019-021.

Winter storm warning from 9 pm this evening to 9 pm cst Sunday
for wiz005-010-018.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Sunday for wiz073-074.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taylor County Airport, WI13 mi36 minE 8 G 140.25 miSnow24°F22°F94%1015.9 hPa
Merrill, Merrill Municipal Airport, WI20 mi36 minESE 80.15 miSnow25°F24°F95%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from MDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S5CalmS6CalmS4S4CalmSE3E3CalmCalmE3NE5E8E9E7E9E9E7E9E10
G18
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1 day agoW8SW7W7W7W9
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NW9W8W6NW4S3SW3CalmCalmSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE8
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W7W7SW8
G14
W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.