Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Menominee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday August 17, 2017 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:24AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 311 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts veering to the nw late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Friday..NW wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly Sunny.
Friday night..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
LMZ521 Expires:201708180415;;537034 FZUS53 KGRB 172011 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 311 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-180415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Menominee, MI
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location: 45.12, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 172250
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
550 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 245 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017
lingering showers tonight, then generally dry with a warming trend
into the weekend.

The band of westerlies across the northern CONUS and southern
canada will remain progressive as it gradually strengthens and
loses amplitude through early next week. Reamplification will
occur late in the period as a ridge builds over the plains and a
trough strengthens from eastern canada into the great lakes
region.

Temperatures will start out seasonable and then trend upward,
probably peaking at 5 to 10 degrees above normal by late in the
weekend and early next week. Readings will drop back (probably to
near or a little below normal) as the upper flow tilts northwest
due to amplification next week. The main opportunity for
precipitation will be with a frontal system crossing the area early
next week. That system will probably be a significant
precipitation producer as ample moisture and upper support will
accompany the fropa, and likely be sufficient to result in above
normal amounts for the period.

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 245 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017
occluded low pressure system and deep upper trof will exit the
region this evening, resulting in decreasing showers from
southwest to northeast. The threat of thunder has nearly ended,
with instability only lingering in the very far northeast part
of the cwa. Have pulled any mention of thunder from the forecast
after 20z.

Widespread low clouds will continue through the night and into
Friday morning before eroding as the cyclonic flow weakens and a
weak ridge of high pressure arrives. Gusty west to northwest
winds will continue through the night and Friday morning before
diminishing. Have extended small craft advisories through 18z
Friday. The best forcing associated the next short-wave trof will
stay to our southwest on Friday afternoon, so will carry a dry
forecast.

Used a blend of the better performing guidance sets for
temperatures. This resulted in lows in the upper 50s and lower
60s tonight, and highs in the lower to middle 70s on Friday.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 245 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017
light precipitation with a shortwave passing to our south may
graze the southwest portion of the area Friday night, but that
does not look like a significant precipitation event. Generally
quiet weather is likely during the weekend as high pressure passes
south of the area and shortwave ridging slowly moves through
aloft.

The main weather producer during the period will likely be the
front crossing the area early next week. The models suggest a
significant return of moisture is likely to occur ahead of the
front. The overall loss of amplitude to the westerlies also
suggests relatively fast flow will be in place aloft. So the large
scale pieces seem to be in place for a round or two of strong and
possibly severe storms. But the actual severe threat will
obviously depend on the details of the pattern that are unknown
this far in advance.

At least a few days of quiet weather are likely as northwest
upper flow and high pressure settle over the area during the
latter part of next week.

Timing differences exist among the models, especially pertaining
to precipitation with the system early next week. But those are
impossible to resolve at this point. The standard forecast
initialization grids based on a broad blend of model output seemed
reasonable, so no significant chances were necessary.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 514 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017
low pressure will be exiting the region tonight, but plenty of
cloud cover will linger across the area into Friday. Though
eastern wi may have ceilings start out atVFR this evening, expect
most of the area to have MVFR ifr conditions through mid- morning
Friday. Ceilings return toVFR for most locations by midday
Friday. Southwest or west winds will veer to the northwest by
around midnight and remain gusty through the end of the taf
period.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Beach hazards statement until 9 pm cdt this evening for wiz022-
040-050.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Kieckbusch
long term... ... Skowronski
aviation... ... .Mpc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 2 mi42 min SW 12 G 16 73°F 999.9 hPa67°F
45014 23 mi30 min SW 18 G 23 73°F 72°F1000.3 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 36 mi80 min SSE 6 G 9.9 71°F 1000.3 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi42 min SW 7 G 12 73°F 1000.9 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E5
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E4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI1 mi2.1 hrsWSW 610.00 miOvercast73°F66°F81%1001 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI23 mi64 minSW 11 G 2010.00 miOvercast73°F66°F79%1001.9 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E8E6E6E6E9----------S10S7S9S9S10S14
G19
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G22
SW15
G21
6SW9SW6
1 day agoSE5CalmE4E5NE4E7NE3N4N5N3CalmN3CalmN45E7E10E9E6E7E9E9E8E8
2 days ago--CalmNE5N4E6NE6N3N4CalmCalmCalmNW3N6N6N4NW5N8N86CalmCalm----SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.