Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Menominee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:42PM Sunday June 24, 2018 11:23 AM CDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:24PMMoonset 3:01AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 950 Am Cdt Sun Jun 24 2018
Rest of today..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy.
Tonight..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Monday..E wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Monday night..E wind 5 to 10 kts veering se 10 to 15 kts overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers after midnight.
LMZ521 Expires:201806242215;;041992 FZUS53 KGRB 241450 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 950 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-242215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Menominee, MI
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location: 45.12, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 240901
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
401 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 357 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
a chance of showers in central and north-central wisconsin this
afternoon and evening, otherwise quiet weather with seasonable
temperatures and humidities will continue through Monday. Showers
are expected across the area Tuesday, then hot and humid
conditions appear increasingly likely by late in the week.

The upper flow across north america will consolidate back into a
single dominant band of westerlies as it loses amplitude the next
several days. Amplification of the flow is expected during the
latter half of the period, with a seasonably deep trough
developing in the west and broad ridging across the east.

A couple more days of seasonable temperatures are expected, then
readings will be held 5-10f degrees below normal Tuesday by
clouds and showers. Above normal temperatures and humid conditions
are expected for the latter part of the week and upcoming
weekend. After staring out dry, the upper pattern will become
much more supportive of precipitation so amounts are likely to
end up AOA normal for the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Monday
issued at 357 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
a rain band wrapping back around the western flank of the decaying
cyclone exiting the area has become quite well organized over lake
michigan early this morning. The models were not handling its
placement well. A majority of them wrapped the precipitation back
into eastern wisconsin, and the hi-res wrfs generated upward of 2
inches of rain over portions of door county or the adjacent areas
of the bay of green bay. Radar trends however have not shown the
westward push or expansion needed to get the rain into the door.

The best chance for rain may be more toward eastern manitowoc
county as the band drops south. Will continue to monitor closely,
but started the forecast with just low pops right along the
lakeshore until mid-morning.

The second area of concern for precipitation is across mainly the
western portion of the forecast area this afternoon into this
evening. The specifics of the latest models runs looked a little
less favorable for that precipitation as upper heights are
forecast to rise nearly 100m during the day as ridging aloft
increases across the area. On the other hand, the rain chances
will benefit from having the remnants of a dissipating cold front
sliding into the area during the day. That front was generating
scattered showers and even some thunderstorms from the minnesota
arrowhead across lake superior into southeast ontario early this
morning. So maintained pops for the west for this afternoon into
this evening, though edged them back a bit from the previous
forecast. Coverage is expected to be scattered, so not all areas
will experience rainfall.

Quiet weather will return Monday as an anticyclone passing
southeast across ontario ridges back into the area and provides
an influx of dry air from the northeast.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
issued at 357 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
forecast concerns mainly revolve around precip chances this week,
followed by heat concerns at the end of the period. Medium range
models are taking a beefy sub-tropical ridge further east over the
past 48 hours of runs, and across the ohio valley to the northeast
conus. This pattern is more favorable for MCS activity across the
western great lakes, which models are having difficulty resolving
from Thursday into early next weekend. Will continue to use a
general model blend for this period of the forecast.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Models remain in very good
agreement in tracking a low pressure system across the area during
this period. They show the first swath of showers and storms will
arrive over central wi in the evening, and over the rest of the area
after midnight, within a region of mid-level moisture transport and
moisture convergence. This first round should lift off to the
northeast on Tuesday morning. But as the shortwave trough and
surface low arrive on Tuesday afternoon, a second round of showers
and storms are likely to develop. The latest guidance shows that
central and east-central wi stand to receive the most precip, though
most locations have a decent bet of seeing rainfall. Severe weather
should remain south of the area, though a strong storm could move
into the southern fox valley if sufficient breaks in the precip and
cloud cover occur. Should see the showers and storms exit eastern wi
on Tue evening as moisture transport gets shunted east of the
region. But beneath the deep cyclonic flow, progged soundings remain
pretty saturated, so scattered showers or drizzle will likely
continue into the overnight hours. No significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast... A few showers will likely linger into
Wednesday morning, particularly over northeast wi where moisture is
the deepest. Then partial clearing looks possible on Wednesday
afternoon as weak high pressure builds in from the west. After a
quiet Wednesday night, focus then shifts towards a warm front that
will be lifting northeast towards the western great lakes on
Thursday into Thursday night. This will be the leading edge of very
warm and humid airmass. Complicating matters substantially will be
the possibility of convection with the arrival of the front as
models advect in mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8 c km on Thursday
night. This unstable airmass will be favorable for MCS development,
though trying to add any temporal or spatial resolution to the
forecast is a shot in the dark this far out. If not for the
potential of thunderstorm activity, highs on Friday and Saturday
could approach 90 in the north and the mid 90s over central and east-
central wi. Heat indices could also approach dangerous levels.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 357 am cdt Sun jun 24 2018
an area of low clouds and MVFR visibilities with a rain band over
lake michigan may clip eastern wisconsin early today. Otherwise,
generally good flying weather withVFR conditions is expected
outside of any localized lower ceilings and visibilities in
showers across central and north-central wisconsin this afternoon
into this evening.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 2 mi53 min NE 6 G 7 62°F 1015.2 hPa53°F
45014 23 mi23 min ENE 7.8 G 12 64°F 69°F1015.6 hPa (+2.7)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 36 mi43 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 59°F 1015.6 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 46 mi53 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 64°F 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI1 mi87 minNNE 410.00 miFair68°F55°F65%1016.6 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI23 mi87 minNNW 1010.00 miFair64°F57°F78%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E9--E74E6E5E7SE3E3CalmN4N3NE4N5N5NE3CalmN3N4CalmN4NE4SE6
1 day agoE12E14E9NE10E7E8E7E7NE5N4--N4N4N4N3N3N5N3NW3NW4N5E7E9E8
2 days agoNE14NE17
G20
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G19
E14--E13E11
G17
--NE8--N4N4N5NE5N3N5N3N3N3NE4NE7E10E8E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.