Sunday, January21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northport, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:38PM Sunday January 21, 2018 7:55 AM EST (12:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 1008 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
Overnight..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. This is the last issuance of the nearshore marine forecast for the season. This product will resume seven days prior to the opening of the soo locks, scheduled for march 25 2018, or sooner if warmer temperatures would cause ice to dissipate.
LMZ344 Expires:201801161000;;512212 FZUS53 KAPX 160309 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ344-161000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northport, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.13, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 211107
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
607 am est Sun jan 21 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 335 am est Sun jan 21 2018

Mild again today with increasing chances of precip tonight...

high impact weather potential... Areas of light freezing precip
tonight possibly causing some slippery travel.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Low pressure continues to develop to the
lee of the rockies over the central plains early this morning.

Associated warm front extends eastward from the developing low thru
kansas and missouri into the ohio valley. Increasing moisture
continues to gradually advect northward along and north of this
boundary thru illinois and indiana into wisconsin and michigan...

resulting in increasing clouds... Lowering CIGS and widespread fog.

Closer to home... Patchy fog is beginning to develop across southern
sections of our CWA along the northern periphery of this increasing
moisture shield... But low clouds remain south of our area for now.

Temps remain relatively mild this morning (for late january
anyway)... With most locations in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

As we head into today and tonight... Deepening surface low center
will begin to lift NE out of the central plains... Reaching the
iowa missouri border by 12z Monday. The deep closed upper low will
be close in tow right behind the surface low center. Associated warm
front will lift northward into southern lower michigan by evening
and will stall there for the remainder of the night. Some
strengthening in WAA today will boost temps back into the upper 30s
and lower 40s today despite increasing thickening low cloud cover as
low level moisture advects into the region from south to north.

Still appears any precip chances will hold off until tonight...

increasing from south to north as moist isentropic ascent (i295)
increases along and north of the warm front. All precip will be
rather light... Mainly of the patchy drizzle freezing drizzle light
snow variety... Due to limited depth of moisture during the onset. At
this point... Precip intensity should be sufficiently light enough to
preclude the necessity of any headline for now. Will certainly keep
a close eye on how the onset of this event evolves. Low temps
tonight will range from the lower 20s in eastern upper michigan to
the lower 30s in southern sections of our cwa.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 335 am est Sun jan 21 2018

Messy wintry mix will impact travel...

high impact weather potential... Significant snow and ice
accumulations possible, which will make for difficult, if not
hazardous, travel.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Well-advertised storm system will slowly
travel from NW missouri Monday morning through northern lower
michigan by Tuesday morning, departing into quebec by Tuesday
evening. The system will interact with a very moist environment to
produce widespread precipitation as it crosses the upper great
lakes, with pwats over northern michigan ranging from 0.5" to
greater than 0.75" (2 to 4 standard deviations above the mean for
late january). Strong low level thermal gradient across northern
michigan will lead to a variety of precip types until colder air
arriving behind the departing system brings a change to all snow
early Tuesday. This will be followed by a transition to lake effect
processes by Tuesday afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns... Precipitation types and amounts and
potential headline decisions.

Over the last 24 hours, models have come into better consensus
regarding the track of this system, roughly taking it just south of
a line from ludington to alpena as it crosses northern lower late
Monday night. However, there remain some subtle variances in how far
north the warm air will progress, which will have a huge impact on
low level thermal profiles and resultant ptypes. Among the 21.00z
suite of deterministic models, the GFS and gem take the surface 32f
isotherm nearly all the way north to straits Monday evening, while
the NAM and ECMWF take it only to about m-32. Have leaned more
toward the slightly warmer end of guidance with this forecast.

Very favorable forcing will move into the area on Monday, consisting
of strong upper divergence, pva, warm air advection, low level jet
nosing into the area, and impressive f-gen banding. Generally the
strongest forcing won't arrive until afternoon, when the steadier,
heavier precipitation is expected to begin. As the core of this
wound up system enters northern michigan Monday evening night, a
somewhat muddled dry slot will strip out moisture from top down.

Moisture will increase again within the column towards daybreak
Tuesday on the backside of this departing system. Impressive QPF for
this event, ranging from around 0.60" over western chippewa mackinac
counties to around an inch near lake huron.

Precip type... Still looking like mainly snow across eastern upper,
but as the column dries out from top down Monday evening night, that
may lead to a loss of ice crystals in the clouds and hence a period
of freezing drizzle rain. Northern lower ptype forecast remains a
challenge given models' continued variances in low level thermal
profiles. A wintry mix is still expected with snow, freezing rain,
and sleet overspreading the area Monday morning. As surface
temperatures slowly warm through the day from south to north, will
see a corresponding gradual transition to rain migrating north
towards the straits. Colder air filtering in on the backside of this
system Tuesday morning will bring a rather quick transition to all
snow across the forecast area, with synoptic snow giving way to
some lake effect snow showers Tuesday afternoon.

Precip amounts... Given the impressive amount of QPF with this
system, a significant amount of snowfall is expected across eastern
upper and tip of the mitt from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning. Within that 24-hour period, the current forecast calls for
potentially 4-7" between m-32 and the bridge and around 7-9" across
eastern upper. This will be a wetter, heavier snow with slr
averaging around 10:1 across the area. Much lower confidence in
potential ice amounts. Certainly plausible that some northern lower
locales see 0.1 to 0.2" of ice accumulation, but there's still too
much model variance at this point with regard to thermal profiles to
pin down which locations will be most impacted. So, expect
additional adjustments to snow ice forecasts today following later
model runs.

Potential headlines... Potential snowfall across eastern upper and
tip of the mitt look to fall short of winter storm watch criteria
but would definitely warrant an advisory later on. Potential ice
accumulations across northern lower also look to fall short of watch
criteria but would warrant an advisory later on. Given we're still a
few periods out and confidence remains low in potential snow ice
amounts, will hold off on any headlines for now.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 335 am est Sun jan 21 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Lake effect snow showers will continue around and south of the grand
traverse bay region through Wednesday, when a considerably drier
airmass settles into the region with a large surface high. Generally
quiet weather then expected through Friday when temperatures will
warm back into the low 40s for much of northern lower. Another
synoptic system is progged to track through the upper midwest on
Saturday, passing well to our north and bringing mainly rain to
northern michigan.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 607 am est Sun jan 21 2018
low clouds and fog will slowly expand northward thru northern
lower michigan today and tonight in advance of a warm front
lifting northward into the great lakes region. Conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually ifr as the fog and low stratus
develops. Areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle will also develop
tonight. Light variable surface winds today will become E ne
below 10 kts tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 7 mi75 min SSE 2.9 G 7 34°F 1016.3 hPa
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 59 mi37 min E 5.1 G 5.1 33°F 1013.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 65 mi37 min E 4.1 G 5.1 32°F 1015 hPa26°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
-12
PM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
W5
W4
SW7
SW9
SW4
G8
SW8
SW8
SW3
W4
W5
NW1
SE2
W3
W2
S2
E3
E4
E3
E4
E5
NE3
SE2
SE4
1 day
ago
SW9
SW12
SW12
G16
SW13
G17
SW19
SW15
G20
SW17
G21
SW14
G17
SW15
SW12
G15
SW16
SW13
SW17
SW15
G20
SW17
SW14
G18
SW13
G18
W9
W5
G9
W5
W4
W5
W4
W5
2 days
ago
W9
G12
W6
G9
W8
G11
SW11
G14
SW10
G13
SW15
S17
G21
SW14
G17
SW11
G17
SW13
G17
W9
G12
W9
G12
W6
W4
G7
W5
G8
W8
SW7
W4
G8
W3
SW4
SW10
SW10
SW11
SW9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI22 mi60 minESE 47.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1016.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi60 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F29°F100%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrSW6SW5SW6W6W6W6W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE3
1 day agoS5S7S8
G15
S11
G17
SW15
G24
S9
G14
SW10
G15
S11
G17
S12
G19
SW6S13
G21
S12
G21
SW10
G17
SW13
G19
SW17
G26
SW19
G27
SW13
G24
SW19
G29
SW14
G21
SW13
G19
SW12
G18
W12
G20
SW10W9
2 days agoSW9SW8SW7
G14
SW5SW8S9S11
G15
S8S8SW10
G18
SW15
G22
SW15
G21
SW9
G15
S8SW5SW4SW9SW5S4S5S4S4S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.