Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northport, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:34PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:59 PM EDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 8:43PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 349 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:201709240400;;825379 FZUS53 KAPX 231949 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 349 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ344-240400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northport, MI
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location: 45.13, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231944
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
344 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Near term (tonight through Sunday)
issued at 324 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

More high temperature records to be challenged again on Sunday...

high impact weather potential... Minimal, although combination of
heat and humidity will definitely result in some uncomfortable
Sunday afternoon heat indices.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Another unbelievable warm (ok... Hot)
late september day across the northwoods, with early afternoon
temperatures once again surging into the lower 90s across much of
northern lower michigan (and not much cooler for those north of the
big bridge). Daily records are once again falling by the wayside,
and very likely most locations across our area will break their
daily high temperature record shortly. Add in some rather rare
northern michigan humidity, and heat index values are reaching the
mid to even upper 90s for some areas. Hard to get these readings in
the middle of summer around these parts!
simply not much change expected into the beginning of next week as
anamously strong and record heat producing mid and upper level ridge
remains anchored overhead. Perfect trifecta of light southerly flow,
increasingly dry soil conditions, and plentiful sunshine continues
to set the stage for high temperatures reaching or exceeding record
daily values again on Sunday.

Primary forecast concern centers on just how warm to go once again
on Sunday.

Details: as already mentioned, simply not much change to the large
scale pattern expected. Edge-of-ridge running convection remains
anchored well to our west and northwest through Sunday, and despite
such impressive warmth and humidity, capping via warm off the deck
temperature profiles expected to put a kibosh on any overhead moist
convective development (may see a few late morning and afternoon
cumulus). Much like the last several nights, likely to see a bit of
shallow ground fog develop late, but not expected to become
widespread enough for much concern. An unbelievable mild night, with
expected lows in the low mid 60s not too far off from what normal
highs are for this time of year.

Diurnal temperature response will once again be a quick one as sun-
filled skies greet Sunday. High temperatures may fall just a degree
or two short from those experienced the last few days as off the
deck thermal profiles "cool" slightly. No matter, as daily records
will once again be in jeopardy of being broken as afternoon readings
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. The following are current high
temperature records for Sunday :
record (year)
glr 86 (2007)
tvc 89 (2007)
apn 89 (2007)
anj 88 (1892)
htl 86 (2007)
pln 87 (2007)

Short term (Sunday night through Tuesday)
issued at 324 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

More record highs likely to fall through Tuesday...

high impact weather potential: minimal
pattern forecast: amplified upper level pattern across north america
this afternoon with a deep trough (-3sd) over the western u.S. And
broad ridging across the east. Remnants of former tropical cyclone
"jose" pushing farther away from the new england shore... While
hurricane "maria" moves northward away from the bahamas. Surface
high pressure stretches from new england southwest to the ohio
valley... A cold front upstream of the great lakes extends from low
pressure over northwest ontario back to the central plains.

One piece of the western trough will lift out into the northern
plains upper midwest during the first part of the week... With the
southern portion of the trough left behind over the southwestern
u.S. The northern portion of this trough is expected to phase with
another short wave trough to push substantial height falls into the
great lakes by midweek (and ending our late summer early fall warm
spell). Current frontal positions to the west and north of the
state will not change substantially through the next 36 hours... But
as the upper ridge loses its influence on the region we should see a
cold frontal passage in the Tuesday time frame.

Primary forecast concerns: still warm and somewhat humid to start
the week... With more widespread 80s for highs that will continue to
threaten records:
anj: 83(1908)
htl: 91(1920)... Likely safe
glr: 76(1958)
tvc: 89(1908)
apn: 85(1935)
pln: 80(2007)
an increasing precipitation threat heading into the midweek period
is the anticipated trend with approaching cold front and height
falls... Question is when does this begin to impact northern
michigan. Front should continue to be convectively active... But
afternoon visible satellite imagery shows a lot of post-frontal
cloud cover and bands of showers thunderstorms. Deep-layer moisture
expected to remain prevalent across the northern plains upper
midwest on the cool side of the boundary... Which is not likely to
reach the forecast area until Tuesday evening. Developing
convection across wisconsin western upper may reach eastern upper
far northwest lower by late in the day... And the forecast will
reflect this thinking. Another afternoon on the warm side of the
front will bring another round of potential record breaking highs
(which would potentially be six consecutive days of record highs):
anj: 84(1908)
htl: 89(1920)... Maybe safe
glr: 80(1999)
tvc: 88(1908)
apn: 88(1920)
pln: 83(1973)

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 324 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017
big changes are a'coming as breakdown of current heat producing long
wave pattern allows a vigorous cold front to swing across the area
Tuesday night early Wednesday. If current timing trends hold, we
will be looking at a good 10 to 15 degree temperature drop from
highs on Tuesday, with readings Wednesday struggling into the 60s
for most. Now, despite this abrupt temperature change, not entirely
sold on shower coverage as frontal attendant moisture plume becomes
increasingly narrow with time, and core of best mid level support
also becomes increasingly detached as it pinwheels northeast into
canada. Cool temperatures will continue into the weekend, with
perhaps a reinforcing shot of colder air to arrive toward the end of
the week, with readings by Friday and Saturday perhaps running
several degrees below normal. Combination of passing mid level waves
and increasing lake processes are likely to result in a few showers
at times right into the weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 142 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017
vfr conditions to continue under mostly clear skies and light
winds.

Marine
Issued at 324 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017
weak pressure gradient and very stable over-water thermal
profiles will keep both winds and waves below headline criteria
through early next week. Dry and unseasonably warm weather will
continue as well.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... mb
short term... Jpb
long term... mb
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 7 mi80 min SW 5.1 G 8 79°F 1017.6 hPa
45022 34 mi20 min W 3.9 G 5.8 72°F 69°F1 ft1018.4 hPa72°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 44 mi70 min S 12 G 14 69°F 67°F2 ft1017.2 hPa (-1.3)
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 59 mi42 min SSW 8.9 G 11 71°F 1015.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 65 mi42 min SW 9.9 G 12 87°F 1015.9 hPa52°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI22 mi66 minSSW 910.00 miFair89°F61°F39%1018.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair91°F61°F38%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SE6SE4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSE4S6SE4SE4S5S5S6SW7SW10SW9SW9SW8SW8SW8SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE5SE4SE4SE5SE3SE5SE5S5S7S5SW6SW8SW10
G15
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G22
2 days agoSE9SE5SE4SE5SE6SE10SE3SE6NW4E5E7CalmCalmSE6SE4S4SW3N4W8NW4N4NW4N4N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.