Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 2:35 AM   Moonset 11:45 AM

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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 411 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through this evening - .
Today - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest with gusts to around 30 knots in the afternoon. Rain showers likely early in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet in the morning. Tonight - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 011052 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 652 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger in our southeast areas this afternoon/evening.

- Occasional rain chances into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern/synopsis: Another occluded surface low is seen upstream, over northern MN. A triple-point is over w central WI, with the warm front extending toward southern Lake MI and far sw lower MI. This low will fill as it moves east, over and east of Lk Superior today. Trailing the low, high pressure builds toward upper and central lower MI tonight.

Forecast: A band of rain showers is advancing into northern MI this morning. Precip that has reached nw lower MI is (and will remain) on the light side. A more substantial slug of rain is heading toward upper MI. On the back edge of this precip band, a few lightning strikes have been occurring, especially near MNM.
Though instability decreases with eastward extent, it isn't quite zero here (up to 200j/kg). May mention some isolated morning thunder in the west. Total rainfall amounts thru this morning will range from about 0.25" in eastern upper MI, to circa 0.15" in the tip of the mitt, to 0.10" or less further south.

Highest pops will be this morning. This afternoon, most of northern lower MI is dry; perhaps far northern lower could still see a stray shower. A better chance for showers lasts in eastern upper MI, with even a slight chance into early tonight. Partial clearing occurs this afternoon south of M-32, which will allow for warm temps there. Highs in the south half from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Mid 50s to mid 60s in the north.

Fire wx issues: breezy to windy wnw winds this afternoon, and warm temps. Rh values are presently progged to lower close to 30 percent near Saginaw Bay...which is also one part of the forecast area progged to see the least QPF. Elevated fire danger will be mentioned for HTL-Mio-Harrisville and points se.

Tonight...relatively cloudy skies persist in the north. In the south, partial cloud cover starts to increase again late ahead of our next system. Any precip likely waits until Thursday. Min temps mainly within a few degrees of 40f.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper trough and sfc low track to the west of northern Michigan Thursday, cold front to follow on Friday as system advects north- northeastward. Rain showers expected as a result with some embedded/isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Another quick hitting disturbance is progged to move across the region this weekend with some more showery activity. Heights begin to build early next week in response to another upper trough moving across the middle portions of the country.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Currently in a pattern that facilitates rain chances every couple/few days it seems, which will continue through this weekend at the very least. Low pressure system will track to the west of N MI Thursday into Friday, resulting in warm, moist advection and thus the chance for rain showers. Guidance suggests the best zone of precip will be west of I-75, but most locations should get in on the action heading into Friday as the frontal boundary focuses additional showers. Couple models suggesting elevated instability resulting in some embedded thunderstorm activity Thursday evening into early Friday, but others are quite warm aloft and thus are not as impressive. Nevertheless, at least some chance exists for elevated embedded convection Thursday night and then isolated thunderstorms Friday. All in all, some areas could see some beneficial, wetting rains.

Next piece of energy aloft will move through this weekend resulting in additional rain chances, although looking light for the most part. A somewhat more impactful system will have to be monitored for early-mid next week as a deeper upper low/sfc low pressure system moves into the central CONUS and then eastward in some fashion.
Couple ensembles hint at non zero CAPE values so that's what the we'll be watching for in the coming days, but really a much too far look into the future for any sort of elaboration. During this entire period, daytime high temperatures likely remain in the 60s and 70s for much of the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Band of showers will work across the area today, as low pressure moves east across Lk Superior. Precip will end in northern lower MI by midday, though CIU will see rain into this afternoon.
Periods of MVFR cigs expected at all sites but mbL today. CIU will likely be IFR at times, this afternoon thru tonight. PLN will be primarily MVFR tonight.

Se to s winds will veer west into and thru the afternoon, and become gustier. Winds weaken tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344>346.

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