Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 9:17PM Thursday May 24, 2018 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 3:01PMMoonset 2:55AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 406 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Isolated showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201805250415;;468835 FZUS53 KAPX 242006 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 406 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-250415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan, MI
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location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241931
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Some showers and non-severe storms tonight...

high impact weather potential... A few thunderstorms in eastern upper
michigan. Severe storms are not expected.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Upper level ridge axis continues to
slowly build into the western great lakes this afternoon.

Downstream surface high pressure remains over the central great
lakes but is beginning to edge off toward the mid atlantic coast.

Surface low pressure is slipping out of canada into the northern
plains upper midwest region with some semblance of a warm front
arcing down through minnesota iowa. In between, southwest return
flow is pulling more warmer, more humid (and unstable) air into
the far western great lakes, curling across the u.P. Into eastern
upper michigan where there is some actual instability this
afternoon. Lower michigan remains somewhat shielded by the lake
with dewpoints running a good 5 to 10 degrees lower, with no
instability.

Primary forecast concerns... Shower and thunderstorm chances
tonight.

First off, batch of showers and some thunderstorms from earlier in
the day continue to slip across upper michigan, toward the eastern
u.P. Convection has been diminishing upon reaching a more stable
environment downstream, but will need to be addressed early on.

Already added shower chances to the forecast for the balance of
the afternoon into early evening.

After that, surface low will ease into the upper midwest as we go
through tonight with some semblance of a cold front slipping into
the northern central plains. Best forcing instability and main
focus for showers and storms will remain upstream, from the
midwest into the central plains. That said, deeper moisture instability
plume will continue to fold into the western great lakes through
the night. Coupled with a modest LLJ developing and nosing across
the upper peninsula, will maintain scattered showers and perhaps
some thunderstorm possibilities across the u.P. Through the
course of the night, and just into the tip of the mitt. No severe
weather anticipated.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Weekend rain chances...

high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms, especially
Friday evening, and in the afternoon Saturday and Sunday
pattern synopsis forecast: high amplitude ridging that has been
building over the eastern CONUS will be dampened by a shortwave that
has been moving out of the desert southwest. This shortwave will
move over the area Friday evening and through the day Saturday. A
second shortwave moving out of the pacific NW will follow closely
behind the first disturbance, moving overhead Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns: primary concern remains the potential for
some scattered thunderstorms over the weekend. Still doesn't look
like a washout by any means, but some afternoon pop-up storms could
cause some inconvenience for the areas they move over. Shear still
looks anemic for any kind of organized severe threat Saturday, with
20kts of 0-6km bulk shear. There are a few areas Sunday with bulk
shear getting into the more preferable 30kt range, but dewpoints
are likely too high in guidance and producing unrealistically high
cape values. Wet bulb zero heights are sub 10kft right now, and mid
level lapse rates will steepen as the trough moves through, so even
pulse type storms could produce some small hail. Will continue to
keep an eye on this and see if things start to look more favorable.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

High pressure returns...

building high pressure will bring another stretch of warm days and
quiet weather heading into mid-week. High temperatures will continue
to run well above normal, with much of northern lower getting into
the 80s. Another chance of showers looks to come later in the week,
right now some time Thursday, as the next disturbance moves overhead.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 129 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
vfr weather will persist through Friday. High pressure across the
great lakes will continue to provide dry weather andVFR flight
conditions through tonight. Some SW surface wind gustiness
anticipated this afternoon and llws following tonight.

Friday: low pressure will begin to approach the far western great
lakes region from the west. Along with increasing moisture instability,
shower and thunderstorm threat increases through the day and
heading into the weekend. Best chances will be across the u.P.

For much of the day with just thickening cloud cover at the
terminal sites.

Marine
Issued at 331 pm edt Thu may 24 2018
winds will continue to pick up this evening in response to a
tightening pressure gradient as high pressure exits the area and low
pressure approaches. Expect southwesterly winds becoming more
southerly Saturday morning, with speeds in the 15 to 20 knot range
lasting into Saturday morning. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Ba
marine... Am


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 18 mi37 min NW 3.9 G 7.8 54°F 43°F1 ft1017.7 hPa (-2.9)48°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi57 min WSW 8.9 G 12 62°F 1017.6 hPa
WSLM4 49 mi37 min SW 5.1 55°F 58°F1017.2 hPa (-2.9)45°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi49 min WSW 6 G 8 71°F 1015.6 hPa32°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi43 minW 310.00 miFair81°F47°F31%1016.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi43 minSW 410.00 miFair76°F50°F41%1017.6 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair62°F48°F62%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S4SW4W5W7SW7W6W7NW4N3W4
1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmW3SW4NW5NW3W5W4Calm
2 days agoS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4N3NE3NW6NW7
G15
W4NW5NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.