Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Jordan, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:37PM Friday September 21, 2018 6:38 AM EDT (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:26PMMoonset 2:41AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 354 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..West wind up to 30 knots becoming northwest early in the evening. Gusts up to 40 knots. Scattered Thunderstorms early in the morning. Scattered showers through the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet in the morning. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots, diminishing to 10 to 20 knots through the night. Scattered showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201809211600;;971375 FZUS53 KAPX 210754 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 354 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-211600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Jordan, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.14, -85.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 211035
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
635 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
high impact weather potential: possible remnant thunderstorms
associated with a strong cold front this morning, and a possible
wind speeds reaching advisory criteria. Frost potential late
tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper ridging was over the east coast while troughing was working
into the western great lakes. Sfc low pressure was still deepening
as it was lifting into far western lake superior, and the pressure
gradient was continuing to tighten. A warm front was lifting through
eastern upper michigan, and was taking some of the earlier stronger
storms forced mainly by LLJ waa along with it. Still upstream was
the strong cold front that was resulting in additional showers and
storms that were still making their way toward NRN michigan. This
activity was supported by a nice axis of upper divergence associated
with a 110kt+ jet. NRN michigan is firmly within the warm sector
where instability has been growing to 1500-1800j kg mucape. All the
forcing and greater than expected instability, has not only resulted
in damaging wind threats, but also with one of two strong storms
that had likely produced some large hail. Upstream, across western
canada and down into montana was high pressure and much quieter
weather.

The warm frontal activity will continue to press north through
daybreak, while the convection associated with the cold front will
continue to work it's way toward NRN michigan. As it does, the
stronger dpva and LLJ waa lifts NE of us, and there are strong
suggestions that the impressive axis of upper divergence weakens.

This is all pointing toward a gradual weakening, and dissipating
line of convection as it rolls into NRN michigan. Definitely still
worth watching as the mucapes will still be around 1600j kg. Any
potential thunder threat will end shortly after sunrise, and strong
cold advection ensues while the pressure gradient remains tight.

Strong overlake instability develops later today, and lake effect
rain showers will develop in NW flow regimes. These showers probably
won't last too long, ending this evening as the atmosphere dries out
pretty decently.

Taking a closer look at the winds for today, it's certainly going
to be cooler and quite gusty today in the tight gradient. Am seeing
gusts easily into the 35 to 40 mph range and likely in many areas to
advisory levels (45mph). After coordination with surrounding
offices, will be issuing a wind advisory for today. There is also a
chance that a brief burst of advisory criteria wind gusts can occur
right with the cold frontal passage. There is even somewhat of an
isallobaric component involved, which provides a bit more confidence
in the headline.

The storm system quickly departs into quebec tonight, with the
gradient slowly loosening and winds gradually slowing down. The high
pressure settles in by daybreak Saturday from NRN michigan back
through the mid mississippi valley. Not gonna totally believe the
data suggestion that skies will completely clear, not with the
overlake instability we'll have. Believe there will be lake clouds
in nrly flow regimes.

Temperatures ranging from the mid 60s in eastern upper to the mid
70s closer to saginaw bay this morning, falling to the mid 50s in
eastern upper to the upper 60s in downsloping areas of NE lower this
afternoon.

By daybreak, low level winds through 850mb are all 10kts or less,
likely leading to many areas, mainly low lying areas totally
decoupling to calm. What wind there will be will be northerly and
light (maybe even turning offshore?). As stated earlier, could be
some lake cloud in those nrly flow regimes, but inland locales will
be the coldest with some potential patchy frost. Doubt this will
need an advisory, but watch out "typically colder areas"! Readings
will more so be in the upper half of the 30s there, with 40-45f
closer to the shores and nrly flow regimes.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
high impact weather potential: patchy frost possible across a few
typically cooler spots early Sunday morning.

Pattern forecast: nearly zonal flow is anticipated aloft across the
northern tier of the CONUS through the upcoming weekend. High
pressure rooted at the surface is expected to keep much of the area
precipitation-free through the forecast period; however, a tight
baroclinic zone is expected to become draped across far northern
portions of the u.P. By late Saturday night into early Sunday...

perhaps providing the focus for a few scattered light showers across
the far north
primary forecast concerns challenges: low temperatures Sunday
morning along with minor precipitation potential across eastern
upper.

Generally quiet weather is expected across the bulk of northern
michigan on Saturday with mostly sunny skies and light winds. High
temperatures will certainly feel cool as highs top out several
degrees below normal... Ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.

Aforementioned baroclinic zone gradually sags south out of southern
canada becoming draped across far northern reaches of the forecast
area, providing an increase in cloud cover Saturday evening across
eastern upper and portions of the tip of the mitt... Perhaps even as
far south as the m-72 corridor. A slight chance of pops looks to
suffice for now for any isolated shower activity that may affect
parts of that area. This should help limit overall radiational
cooling across a good chunk of northern michigan, although wouldn't
be surprised if a few of the typically cooler locations of interior
northern lower make a run at low temperatures in the mid-30s early
Sunday morning (and thus another night of patchy frost potential).

Quiet weather remains on tap for Sunday with partly sunny skies.

Gradually increasing easterly winds will keep locations near the
lake huron shoreline coolest for daytime highs... Generally in the
upper 50s warming several degrees west of interstate 70 as
southwestern sections of the forecast area near the grand traverse
bay region make a run at the upper 60s.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
high impact weather potential:
after another quiet day across northern michigan on Monday, the
focus turns toward early next week as another system develops across
the plains... Able to tap into gulf of mexico moisture before
trekking northeastward toward the western great lakes. Lots of
uncertainty regarding this system given it being 5 days out, but it
certainly seems as if it'll carry the next chance for widespread
precipitation across northern michigan.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 633 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
strong low pressure in lake superior will work into quebec
tonight, and result in a tight pressure gradient and strong gusty
winds for much of the TAF period. These winds will kick off with
the arrival of the system's cold front that crosses later this
morning, while a band of showers decays. Much colder air then fills
in through the day with the development of light lake effect
showers, mainly this afternoon and into this evening. Winds
gradually subside through the night, becoming rather light by
daybreak Saturday as high pressure settles in. The lake effect
showers will end this evening, but there may be lingering lake
clouds longer through the night. CIGS will turn MVFR to low end
vfr behind the front and hold through most of the TAF period.

Marine
Issued at 324 am edt Fri sep 21 2018
strong low pressure in far western lake superior will work into
quebec tonight, and result in a tight pressure gradient and strong
gusty winds into tonight. These winds will kick off with the arrival
of the system's cold front that crosses this morning, while also
bringing in a decaying band of showers and some embedded storms.

Steep overlake instability will help result in widespread solid
gales today, that continue into this evening for lake huron. Winds
gradually subside through the night, becoming rather light by
daybreak Saturday as high pressure settles in for the weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Wind advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz008-015>036-
041-042.

Lakeshore flood warning until midnight edt tonight for miz016-
019>021-025-031.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz016-019>021-
025-031.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz008-015-017-
018-024-030-036-042.

Lakeshore flood warning from 5 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for miz008.

Lh... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lhz345>349.

Lm... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 18 mi28 min S 18 G 27 71°F 68°F2 ft1001.9 hPa70°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 23 mi58 min SSW 13 G 27 70°F 1001.4 hPa
45020 35 mi28 min S 14 G 18 71°F 69°F1 ft66°F
45183 39 mi38 min S 18 G 23 72°F 66°F1001.4 hPa (-1.2)
WSLM4 49 mi38 min S 18 70°F 66°F999.4 hPa (-1.3)66°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 49 mi38 min 71°F 65°F999.4 hPa (-1.3)71°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last
24hr
SE8
SE10
SE10
SE12
G16
SE14
SE11
SE16
SE13
G16
SE17
E17
E17
E17
E16
G23
E17
SE19
SE17
SE16
G20
SE15
G19
SE13
G19
S14
G20
S17
G21
SW16
G26
SW15
G21
SW13
G19
1 day
ago
N5
G8
N6
G9
NE9
G12
E12
G15
E11
E10
G13
SE13
E11
E7
E6
E5
G8
E10
E11
E13
E8
SE12
SE11
SE10
SE8
SE9
S4
G7
SE6
SE6
G9
SE7
2 days
ago
NE7
NE3
NE4
E5
NE4
NW3
G7
NW7
G10
NW8
G12
W10
G13
NW10
G13
N8
G13
N8
G11
N9
G13
N11
G14
N9
NW6
W7
NW7
N7
G10
N5
N4
G7
NE5
G9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI11 mi43 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F67°F92%1002.7 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi43 minS 12 G 1710.00 miFair71°F68°F92%1002 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI22 mi43 minSSW 9 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F68°F95%1001.4 hPa

Wind History from ACB (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4S8
G14
S8
G17
S7S9
G14
W17
G32
S4S7
1 day agoNE5NE4NE6E6S3CalmW3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE4NW5NW4CalmW5N3NW3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmNW4N4NW4N4CalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.