Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Jordan, MI
May 16, 2024 5:14 PM EDT (21:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 1:10 PM Moonset 2:26 AM |
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 341 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - Light winds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 161920 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 320 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Shower and storm chances tonight and Friday
- Well above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday
- Rain chances increase early next week
- Cooler weather for the second half of next week
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Pattern/synopsis: An initial shortwave trof will pivot across northern parts of the forecast area this evening. A trailing, somewhat more amplified wave will follow a similar track Fri morning. At the surface, a 1004mb surface low near DLH will weaken. The associated front will enter the forecast area overnight, then stall out over eastern sections late Friday.
Forecast: Precip coverage is reasonably impressive just upstream, over far ne WI and central upper MI, including some embedded thunder over Door Co. But our airmass over here is drastically drier, with surface temps mid 60s to mid 70s, and dew points in the 40s and in some places 30s. Between that and the cold water of Lake MI, upstream convection will have a lot of work to. It will succeed, in spots, but only sct to low-end likely pops are in order. The highest pops tonight (by a little bit) will be in eastern sections, where the slowing nature of the entire system will allow more time to overcome the initial dry air. Meanwhile, pops will be decreasing west of I-75 toward dawn. A plume of MuCape values to 500j/kg are progged to cross the area from w to e, so embedded thunder remains possible thru the night. But relatively meager instability and effective shear, and increasingly elevated nature of convection, will sharply limit any svr threat.
Min temps milder, upper 40s to mid 50s.
On Friday, leftover synoptic precip will only creep eastward over ne lower MI and Drummond Isl. But while drier air slowly filters into western areas, the east will see pooled moisture along the stalling front and with developing lake breezes. With the expected emergence of partial sunshine, even in the east, as the day proceeds, some instability develops in the east. MlCape values will again be near or slightly higher than 500j/kg.
Perhaps a stronger storm (still non-severe) will be possible, with 30-40kt 500mb winds. Of course, storms will tend to move over cooler/stable marine air as they attempt to organize and move eastward.
Max temps mid 60s eastern upper MI, to perhaps upper 70s near Gladwin.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
The beginning of the long term shows split flow over North America, with an upper low over the Canadian prairies and another open wave moving through the Gulf Coast and southeastern CONUS. Several disturbances will rotate around the base of that Canadian upper low, with none of them having more than a glancing impact on northern Michigan until the first part of next week.
At the surface, northern Michigan will be under the influence of high pressure to our northeast, limiting rain chances despite warm advection. The result of all this is summerlike temperatures with only spotty rain chances for the weekend.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be well above normals for mid- May.
The flow pattern breaks down early next week as the Canadian upper low meanders far enough east for disturbances to meaningfully impact our area. Some discrepancies in medium range model timing remain, but the most likely event at this stage is for rain chances to increase on Monday, peaking Monday night through Tuesday night, then lingering at a lower chance after that through mid-week.
The clouds and rain will mean cooler temperatures as well, especially for the latter half of next week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Sct showers and a few TSRA will cross the area tonight/early Friday, as a front crosses the region. Cigs are expected to lower late tonight/Fri morning, to low-end MVFR to IFR.
Conditions will gradually improve from w to e by midday Friday.
Light winds, starting southerly today/tonight, in western areas veering west Friday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 320 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Shower and storm chances tonight and Friday
- Well above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday
- Rain chances increase early next week
- Cooler weather for the second half of next week
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Pattern/synopsis: An initial shortwave trof will pivot across northern parts of the forecast area this evening. A trailing, somewhat more amplified wave will follow a similar track Fri morning. At the surface, a 1004mb surface low near DLH will weaken. The associated front will enter the forecast area overnight, then stall out over eastern sections late Friday.
Forecast: Precip coverage is reasonably impressive just upstream, over far ne WI and central upper MI, including some embedded thunder over Door Co. But our airmass over here is drastically drier, with surface temps mid 60s to mid 70s, and dew points in the 40s and in some places 30s. Between that and the cold water of Lake MI, upstream convection will have a lot of work to. It will succeed, in spots, but only sct to low-end likely pops are in order. The highest pops tonight (by a little bit) will be in eastern sections, where the slowing nature of the entire system will allow more time to overcome the initial dry air. Meanwhile, pops will be decreasing west of I-75 toward dawn. A plume of MuCape values to 500j/kg are progged to cross the area from w to e, so embedded thunder remains possible thru the night. But relatively meager instability and effective shear, and increasingly elevated nature of convection, will sharply limit any svr threat.
Min temps milder, upper 40s to mid 50s.
On Friday, leftover synoptic precip will only creep eastward over ne lower MI and Drummond Isl. But while drier air slowly filters into western areas, the east will see pooled moisture along the stalling front and with developing lake breezes. With the expected emergence of partial sunshine, even in the east, as the day proceeds, some instability develops in the east. MlCape values will again be near or slightly higher than 500j/kg.
Perhaps a stronger storm (still non-severe) will be possible, with 30-40kt 500mb winds. Of course, storms will tend to move over cooler/stable marine air as they attempt to organize and move eastward.
Max temps mid 60s eastern upper MI, to perhaps upper 70s near Gladwin.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
The beginning of the long term shows split flow over North America, with an upper low over the Canadian prairies and another open wave moving through the Gulf Coast and southeastern CONUS. Several disturbances will rotate around the base of that Canadian upper low, with none of them having more than a glancing impact on northern Michigan until the first part of next week.
At the surface, northern Michigan will be under the influence of high pressure to our northeast, limiting rain chances despite warm advection. The result of all this is summerlike temperatures with only spotty rain chances for the weekend.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be well above normals for mid- May.
The flow pattern breaks down early next week as the Canadian upper low meanders far enough east for disturbances to meaningfully impact our area. Some discrepancies in medium range model timing remain, but the most likely event at this stage is for rain chances to increase on Monday, peaking Monday night through Tuesday night, then lingering at a lower chance after that through mid-week.
The clouds and rain will mean cooler temperatures as well, especially for the latter half of next week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Sct showers and a few TSRA will cross the area tonight/early Friday, as a front crosses the region. Cigs are expected to lower late tonight/Fri morning, to low-end MVFR to IFR.
Conditions will gradually improve from w to e by midday Friday.
Light winds, starting southerly today/tonight, in western areas veering west Friday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 23 mi | 35 min | NE 4.1G | 58°F | 29.78 | |||
| MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI | 49 mi | 57 min | SE 13G | 53°F | 54°F | 29.75 | 47°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KACB ANTRIM COUNTY,MI | 11 sm | 19 min | SSW 03 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 75°F | 41°F | 29% | 29.75 | |
| KBFA BOYNE MOUNTAIN,MI | 11 sm | 19 min | var 07G14 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 46°F | 34% | 29.75 | |
| KCVX CHARLEVOIX MUNI,MI | 14 sm | 19 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 41°F | 35% | 29.77 | |
| KMGN HARBOR SPRINGS,MI | 23 sm | 19 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 43°F | 48% | 29.77 | |
| KGLR GAYLORD RGNL,MI | 24 sm | 21 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 73°F | 41°F | 31% | 29.79 |
Gaylord, MI,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE