Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday August 20, 2017 10:30 AM CDT (15:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:29AMMoonset 7:13PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 938 Am Cdt Sun Aug 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm cdt this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of today..S wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Partly cloudy.
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 20 kts veering W 5 to 10 kts after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight.
Monday..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing S in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly Sunny.
Monday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts veering W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
LMZ541 Expires:201708202245;;676733 FZUS53 KGRB 201438 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 938 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541-202245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
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location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 201100
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
600 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Monday
issued at 330 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
coverage and intensity of convection, along and near a frontal
boundary sagging southward across the area later through Monday,
will be the focus of this period.

Early this morning a surface frontal boundary extended from far
northwest minnesota to the central plains. Convection over
nebraska continues to dive southeastward along the mid level cap
edge. To the north, a short wave over northwest south dakota and
the start of the westerlies, was producing convection. The onset
of the convection along the approaching front over northwest
wisconsin later today will will likely get enhanced as mid level
winds and shear increases. In terms of timing, this short wave
may reach the northwest half of the state before the front this
afternoon. Not sure how this will impact any severe potential at
this time, but with mu capes increasing to at least 1000 j kg
this afternoon and evening, convection may develop ahead of the
front in the warm sector and turn out to be stronger, especially
during peak heating later today into early evening.

Will then focus showers and storms along the southward sagging
frontal boundary tonight into Monday. Progs suggest the front
stalls over central wisconsin by daybreak Monday, leaving chance
pops over the south half of the forecast area and lower end or no
chance of convection across the north. Stronger dynamics to work
with the front will likely arrive after the Monday period.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
issued at 330 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
spotty convection is likely linger on into the beginning of the
longterm forecast Monday afternoon with the stalled front still in
the area. A more organized round of convection will develop in
the evening along a shortwave. MUCAPE values around 1000-1500 and
bulk shear up to 30-40 knots will support convective develpment as
the forecast area enters the right rear quadrant of a jet streak
aloft. Combined, the forecast area will see a marginal risk of
severe storms across central wisconsin. The main inhibitors to the
strongest storms will be the timing of the front, which could
push further south by the time the shortwave arrives and take the
convection with it, and the possibilty that instability remains
limited after convection earlier in the day. In any case, heavy
rainfall will be likely through Monday night.

Some showers will linger on early Tuesday before quickly coming to
and end by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Once this system pushes
through, quiet conditions will arrive for the rest of the week as
northwesterly flow aloft brings in high pressure conditions near
the surface.

Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal through the
midweek before coming back to around normal by the end of the
week.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 558 am cdt Sun aug 20 2017
increasing pressure gradient combined with some high level clouds
passing over the area, were limiting fog formation the last few
hours, vs more patchy dense fog just after midnight. OtherwiseVFR
conditions expected today after the fog burns off. A frontal
boundary will drop into northwest wisconsin this afternoon and
early evening and then into central and east central wisconsin
overnight. There is a chance for showers and storms along and near
this boundary.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Tdh
long term... ... Uhlmann
aviation... ... .Tdh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi51 min SE 6 G 9.9 70°F 1015.6 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi43 min SW 8.9 G 11 73°F 1015.4 hPa63°F
45014 40 mi31 min SSW 9.7 G 14 71°F 71°F1015.8 hPa (+0.5)
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi51 min SSW 6 G 12 70°F 1015.2 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 43 mi41 min S 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 67°F1 ft1016.2 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI24 mi35 minSW 610.00 miFair74°F64°F71%1017.7 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI24 mi35 minWSW 710.00 miFair73°F63°F71%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr65W86W54W8W3SW3SW3SW4W3W3W3CalmW3W3W3SW3SW5SW7W4SW4W7
1 day agoNW9
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6NW8NW7N7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W8W73
2 days agoS14
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6SW9SW6--SW64W4W65NW56NW7W7NW75NW55NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.