Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday May 25, 2017 1:13 PM CDT (18:13 UTC) Moonrise 5:25AMMoonset 8:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1002 Am Cdt Thu May 25 2017
Rest of today..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Partly cloudy.
Tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kts backing nw after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Friday..E wind around 5 kts veering S in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning.
Friday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy.
LMZ541 Expires:201705252215;;186570 FZUS53 KGRB 251502 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1002 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ541>543-252215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
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location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 251057
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
557 am cdt Thu may 25 2017
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Friday
issued at 406 am cdt Thu may 25 2017
the old upper low over indiana will move slowly
east today and reduce it's influence on our weather. It still was
producing bands of low and middle clouds early today but that
should diminish as the day GOES on. Some of the models hint of a
chance of showers today in northeast wisconsin, likely due to a
convergence area where lake breezes from lake superior and
northern lake michigan meet. Put in a slight chance for the
possibility of that happening. Highs today should be close to
normal.

Weak upper ridging is forecast to move across the region tonight,
with a surface high centered over eastern wisconsin. Light winds
and dewpoints near 50 may produce fog over the cool waters of the
lake and bay and adjoining land areas. Some sprinkles or light
showers may move into our central and northcentral counties late
tonight as warm advection begins. Lows tonight should be close to
normal.

A weak trough could produce scattered showers as it moves across the
area Friday. A rumble of thunder is not out of the question in
central wisconsin.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
issued at 406 am cdt Thu may 25 2017
models remain steady with the overall mean flow into the first
half of next week. An eastern pacific upper ridge will slowly move
east into the western CONUS this weekend and weaken a bit by mid-
week. A closed upper low associated shortwave trough is projected
to move from lake winnipeg central rockies Saturday and eventually
reside from ontario east-central CONUS by Tuesday. This second
feature, preceded by a surface low, will bring warmer increasingly
unsettled weather to northeast wi for the latter part of the
holiday weekend. It may take until late Wednesday to finally shake
the effects of this system with temperatures falling below normal
for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The mid-level shortwave trough accompanying cold front are both
expected to push through wi Friday night, but both in a weakening
state. Expect to see a diminishing area of showers push eastward
with any thunderstorms quickly ending in the evening as daytime
heating wanes. Will carry small chance pops through the night, but
any shower activity should be light and not impact any rivers
streams that are running high. Min temperatures are forecast to
generally be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees north
lakeshore, lower to middle 50s elsewhere.

The remains of the cold front are forecast to hang up from the
midwest mid-ms valley toward the eastern great lakes on Saturday.

Models develop a surface wave on this boundary over northern mo or
west-central il by Saturday afternoon with weak mid-level
frontogenesis to develop from ia into wi. This could bring shower
chances back into the forecast, mainly toward central sections of
wi during the afternoon. Not much in the way of instability, so
have kept thunder out of the forecast. MAX temperatures could
actually move above normal if we can keep the precipitation
thicker clouds away. Look for readings in the upper 60s near lake
mi, lower 70s north-central and lower to middle 70s elsewhere. A
few upper 70s are possible west of the fox valley if the rain does
not materialize.

This surface wave tracks northeast toward southern sections of the
great lakes Saturday night and could bring a chance of showers
across parts of central and east-central wi. The rest of the area
should see partly to mostly cloudy skies adn with the air mass
aloft not changing much, temperatures will be similar to Friday
night. Look for readings in the upper 40s north, lower 50s south.

There continues to be some model disagreement with the timing of
the approaching shortwave trough headed into Sunday. Some models
sweep this trough across the upper ms valley, but other models
hold the better mid-level energy back over south-central canada
northern plains. This timing issue makes all the difference
between increasing precipitation chances over wi (steepening lapse
rates instability) Sunday afternoon or little if any precipitation
and warm temperatures. Since either solution is still plausible,
may need to compromise here and while showers thunderstorms are
still possible, have lowered pops a bit especially over central
and east-central wi. Temperatures to remain at or above normal
with another day in the upper 60s near lake mi, around 70 degrees
north and lower 70s south.

The crux of this shortwave trough is progged to be over the
western great lakes region Sunday night through Monday. Loss of
daytime heating will again allow any storms to end Sunday evening,
but shower chances to persist through the night as individual
shortwaves move through the trough into wi. Memorial day still
appears unsettled with the cold pool aloft and daytime heating
allowing for further shower development and a chance for
thunderstorms much like Saturday afternoon. Thicker clouds and
precipitation chances will start a downward tick in temperatures
with readings on memorial day in the lower 60s north-central,
middle to upper 60s elsewhere.

Northeast wi to then reside on the cool, cyclonic side of this
broad upper trough for Tuesday and Wednesday with additional
pieces of shortwave energy diving southeast across wi. Anticipate
periodic shower chances (at least thunder chances will end) to
persist for both Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures to run 5
to 10 degrees below normal as we head into june.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 557 am cdt Thu may 25 2017
an upper level low pressure system over the northern
ohio valley will continue to produce scattered to broken clouds
across the area today. Most of them should be middle clouds, so
generallyVFR conditions are expected today and most of tonight.

Some dense fog is possible towards daybreak near lake michigan
and the bay. The fog would mostly likely effect 2p2, 3d2, sue,
grb, mtw, atw, mnm and ocq if it does materialize. Whatever fog
there is should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise, withVFR
conditions with a slight chance of showers Friday.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Rdm
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 10 mi34 min NNE 11 G 13 56°F 1005.1 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi34 min NW 5.1 G 8 57°F 1005.4 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi56 min NE 9.9 G 11 1004.7 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi34 min NE 7 G 11 65°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 43 mi84 min N 9.7 G 12 45°F 40°F1 ft1005.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sturgeon Bay, WI24 mi18 minN 1410.00 miA Few Clouds61°F51°F70%1007.1 hPa
Menominee, Menominee-Marinette Twin County Airport, MI24 mi18 minE 1010.00 miFair62°F51°F67%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE11E11NE13E12
G17
NE9NE5NE5N5N8N7N6NE6N6N7N6N6N65NE9
G15
E9E13E12E10
1 day agoNE8NE9NE7N33N4N6NE5NE10NE10NE8NE9NE8N6NE6N6NE6NE6--NE7NE8NE9E11
G19
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2 days agoW8
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G17
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G14
3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--N6NE5E6E6E7E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.