Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:22PM Monday November 19, 2018 9:59 AM CST (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 3:31AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 946 Am Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm cst this afternoon through late tonight...
This afternoon..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering N 10 to 20 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft. Chance of light snow.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft. Scattered snow showers in the evening.
Tuesday..NW wind 10 to 15 kts backing W mid-day, then backing sw 15 to 25 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy.
Tuesday night..W wind 15 to 25 kts veering nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Mostly cloudy.
LMZ541 Expires:201811192330;;544121 FZUS53 KGRB 191546 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 946 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-192330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
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location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 191158
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
558 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Tuesday
issued at 352 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
main concerns in the short-term is the light snow moving through the
area this morning along with yet another chance of lighter snow late
Tuesday afternoon. The light snow this morning will likely impact
the morning commute across portions of central, north central and
far northeast wi.

Satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across the western
great lakes region and farther upstream into southern canada. Radar
this morning continues to show light snow across northern wi with
surface observations showing visiblities generally around 1 to 2
miles, while central and east central wi is showing high clouds and
little no radar returns or reduced visibility as of 10z. Also at
10z 19, winds and pressure from surface obs indicate that the low is
centered over northwest wi, helping to slow the southward
progression of the cold front over the eastern part of the area.

Today: the well advertised weak cold front is sagging south through
the northern portions of wi this morning. At the same time, a weak
low pressure system continues to slide eastward along the front, to
roughly north to northwest wi. This low has helped to slow the
southward progression of the cold front this morning, which has kept
most of the snow closer to the wi upper mi border. Additionally,
some remnant low level dry air from the departing high pressure
system, has kept most of east central and even portions of
northeastern wi dry early this morning. The main area of steadier
snowfall has remained mainly along and north of lincoln, langlade,
northern oconto and southern marinette counties. Again those areas
will be the most likely to see some travel impacts this morning. The
rest of the area will likely see some light snow showers shift
through the area by mid morning as the aforementioned low pressure
system and upper level energy passes directly overhead by or around
15z 19. This will allow the cold front to drop more toward the
southeast and spread light snow across the rest of the area.

Generally not expecting too much in the way of accumulation with the
front later this morning, most areas will see less than a half inch
of additional accumulation. This may allow for some light
accumulation on area roadways across portions of central and east
central wi by mid to late morning. Only minor travel impacts are
expected in those areas.

Tonight: a very brief surface ridge will slide through the area
tonight allowing the light snow to come to an end for most of the
area. The exception will be in the north to northwest wind snow
belts of north-central wi, where some light lake effect snow will
slowly diminish through the night. Otherwise, lingering low-level
moisture will likely keep partly to mostly cloudy skies in place
across the area. Winds will be fairly light tonight across much of
the area, which is favorable for colder temperatures; however, the
lingering cloud cover will be the main limiting factor for
temperatures bottoming out. Regional satellite would suggest that
the low level clouds would likely linger through the night as there
is quite a bit of cloud cover upstream into canada. At this point
have gone with single digits above zero over portions of north-
central into central wi and low to mid teens elsewhere.

Tuesday: the next quick moving clipper-type system will slide from
near southern manitoba Tuesday morning to roughly lake superior by
21z Tuesday. As this happens, this system will also drag a weak cold
front trough through the are late in the afternoon into the evening
hours. While it doesn't look to have as much moisture and is
expected to trek farther north, there will be just enough moisture
and forcing in place to allow for some very light snow showers
across at least north central wi by late Tuesday afternoon.

Generally expecting less than an inch and focused largely over north
central wi Tuesday afternoon. This would mainly impact vilas and
oneida county and possibly as far east as forest county. Otherwise,
the rest of the area will see a steady increase in cloud cover
through the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 20s to low
30s, warmest across east-central wi.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
issued at 352 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
models continued to forecast a mid level ridge, that will be over
western noam at the start of the period, breaking down as it moves
eastward. Once the ridge axis passes east of wisconsin, the
forecast gets murkier as model solutions show more variability.

Expect temperatures to remain well below normal until the ridge
axis is east of the state. Thanksgiving day will be colder than
normal but warmer than early to mid-week. The warmest days look
to be Friday and Saturday in southwest flow aloft.

A surface low and mid level short wave trough passing northeast of
wisconsin will bring the potential for some snow showers, or even
some freezing drizzle, to parts of the area Tuesday night. Chances
will be mainly across north-central wisconsin in northerly flow
of cold air over lake superior.

There may be some light snow or flurries near the lake michigan
shoreline thanksgiving morning in easterly flow. There looks to be
a more significant precipitation event for the end of the week
into the weekend, but details are unclear due to differences among
the models. It should be warm enough for precipitation to fall as
rain across much of the forecast area, at least during the day.

Locations across north-central wisconsin will likely see more of
a mix or just snow.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 558 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
a cold front and weak low pressure system will slide through the
area this morning and bring some light snow to each of the taf
sites. The greatest visibility reduction is expected to be over
the rhi TAF site; however the remaining TAF sites could see some
MVFR conditions develop by mid morning. After these features shift
eastward this afternoon, steadily improving conditions can be
expected. The exception may be rhi, where some lake effect
clouds snow shower may continue. Some gusty winds are also
possible this afternoon into early this evening at the mtw taf
site as a trough slides along lake michigan.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Cooley
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 10 mi79 min WSW 4.1 G 7 25°F 1015.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi53 min WNW 1 G 2.9 26°F 1015.9 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi41 min W 5.1 G 6 24°F 39°F1016.3 hPa11°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi79 min NNE 6 G 9.9 24°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI24 mi63 minW 51.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist23°F21°F92%1018.7 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI24 mi63 minW 41.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F21°F88%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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--W9W8
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W7W6W6W43W3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm--NW3NW4W4
1 day agoN115
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NW5NW6NW6N65CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W3W4W4SW5W6
2 days agoW5W8NW9
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--NW10
G16
NW8NW7NW7N8NW4CalmN7N8N8N6N7NW6NW5NW5NW4NW4N6N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.