Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday May 23, 2019 2:23 AM CDT (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 12:04AMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1225 Am Cdt Thu May 23 2019
Rest of the night..S wind 5 to 10 kts veering sw. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Partly cloudy.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy.
Thursday night..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Friday..NE wind 5 to 10 kts veering E in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
LMZ541 Expires:201905231015;;311493 FZUS53 KGRB 230525 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1225 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541-231015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
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location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 230333
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1033 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance

Update
Issued at 644 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
warm front is lifting up through the area. Kpcz warmed to 78f,
and kosh was gusting to 37kts and 36 kts the past couple hours. A
little moisture was pooling along the boundary, were surface dew
points were near 60f. But the moisture mixed back out in the warm
sector, with dew points edging back into the middle 50s in the
gusty south flow. That was limiting the destabilization, with
mucapes generally 600-800 j kg. The result was scattered showers
and thunderstorms, the strongest of which have produced pea-sized
hail.

Don't see much reason for things to change significantly in the
next couple hours. The coverage of the convection may increase
some, but anticipate mostly pea to perhaps 1 2 inch hail with the
storms.

Short term Tonight and Thursday
issued at 259 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
the expansive stratus deck continues to clear out from southwest
to northeast this afternoon across the region. As this deck clears
out MUCAPE values are increasing to 500 to 1000 j kg across
southwest wisconsin. How much of this instability can advect in
across this area will depend on how quickly the low stratus can
clear out. In addition to the instability there is quite a bit of
shear as 0-3 km shear values are a solid 40 to 50 knots along with
steep mid level lapse rates of 7 to 8 c km. The area will briefly
move into the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system
late this afternoon and early this evening, before a cold front
sweeps through during the evening. In addition there will be
favorable upper level dynamics as the region is in the right exit
region of a strong 120 knot upper level jet. The main factor that
will be inhibiting any convection will be a sizable warm dry
layer between 800 and 900 mb. The other concern is the imbalance
between instability and shear as there is a lot of shear but not
much instability. However if convection can fire up all severe
weather types will be on the table with fairly low wet bulb zero
heights of 7-8k ft favorable for hail, strong low level winds
favorable for damaging winds, and abundant directional and speed
shear in the low levels favorable for isolated tornadoes. Meso
models continue to depict just isolated to scattered activity
developing across the region, which is indicative of the strong
inversion in place. Therefore if thunderstorms do form and the
area gets severe weather it is not expected to be all that
widespread. Therefore the marginal risk for severe weather from
spc still appears to be on track for the late afternoon and early
evening hours.

Once the thunderstorms clear out this evening, there will be some
clearing during the overnight hours. However clouds are expected
to move back in across northern and central wisconsin late tonight
and into Thursday morning as overnight lows fall into the upper
40s to lower 50s.

Low pressure tracking off across the northern great lakes on
Thursday could bring some isolated showers across far northern
wisconsin Thursday morning, with the rest of the area expected to
be dry. Daytime highs on Thursday are expected to range from
around 60 across the north, to the upper 60s across east-central
wisconsin.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
issued at 259 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
rain chances and temperatures during the upcoming holiday weekend
are the main concerns, followed by chances for rain for the early
part of next week.

Chances for showers arrive in the forecast area late Thursday
night in isentropic lift ahead of an approaching surface system.

Showers and storms are likely on Friday ahead of a frontal
boundary associated with the surface low. The low will pass
northwest of wisconsin, reaching ontario Friday night. The front
is forecast to push through the state Friday night Saturday and
the rain should end from northwest to southeast Friday night.

Generally dry weather, along with a cooling trend, can be
expected Saturday through Monday. Highs should be in the lower
70s to lower 80s on Saturday, the lower half of the 70s on Sunday,
and in the 60s on Monday. Expect cooler temperatures near lake
michigan each day.

The next chance for showers and storms is associated with another
surface system and a mid level short wave trough. Chances for
showers and storms arrive from south to north on Monday night and
continue through Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to remain
below normal through Wednesday.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1032 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
llws will ease overnight.VFR conditions will gradually give way
to MVFR conditions as lower clouds spread back into the northwest
part of the forecast area. Anticipate convective cloudiness will
reform across the area in the 14z-16z time frame tomorrow.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi43 min SSE 4.1 G 7 47°F 1007.8 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi35 min Calm G 1 50°F 54°F1007.4 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi43 min SSE 6 G 14 47°F 1007.8 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 43 mi33 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 42°F 37°F2 ft1008.1 hPa40°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI24 mi27 minNW 53.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%1008.2 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI24 mi27 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1007.9 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8E8E15
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3N3N5NE8E9E9E7NE6
G14
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2 days agoNW12
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N12NE10--N9N6SE7SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.