Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ephraim, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:31PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:03 PM CST (03:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 312 Pm Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kts backing E in the late evening. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear then becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday..E wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 10 to 20 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of freezing drizzle and light snow in the morning. Light rain in the afternoon.
Saturday night..E wind 10 to 20 kts becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Rain in the evening. Turning to snow after midnight.
Sunday..NW wind 15 to 25 kts increasing to 35 kt gales in the late morning and afternoon. Gale force gusts to 45 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Areas of blowing snow. Light snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle.
LMZ541 Expires:201902230545;;350826 FZUS53 KGRB 222112 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 312 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-230545-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ephraim, WI
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location: 45.16, -87.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 222359
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
559 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Saturday
issued at 210 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019
the latest rap analysis and satellite radar imagery show high
pressure stretching from the northern mississippi valley to the
eastern great lakes early this afternoon. Meanwhile, light snow is
occurring from northern kansas into north dakota within a warm
advection zone and ahead of shortwave troughing moving over the
rockies. The primary system remains in the base of the trough
located over the desert southwest. However, cloud cover is
shifting northeast into minnesota and iowa and poised to move into
wisconsin later today. As warmer air aloft surges into the state
tonight into Saturday, potential snow and ice accumulations are
the main forecast concerns.

Tonight... Clouds will continue to increase from the southwest and
lower at the same time as warm advection aloft moves from west to
east across the state. With increasing mid-level moisture
transport and decreasing stability, many of the higher resolution
models indicate a band of light snow surging northeast across
north-central wi after 09z. Meanwhile, guidance has slowed down
the arrival of the snow into central wi almost to 12z Sunday.

Therefore lowered accumulations some across the i-39 hwy 51
corridor, where a half inch to an inch of accumulations will be
possible by 6 am Saturday. Temps will most likely steady out in
the evening before warming a few degrees overnight, particularly
over eastern wi where wind directions will become east off lake
michigan.

Saturday... Precipitation will slowly shift east during the
morning, though models indicate low level dry air will hold off
precipitation arriving over eastern wi until 15z or later. Precip
should be mainly snow until this time, before warmer air aloft
starts to invade from the south to north across central to
northeast wi. This will lead to an increasing threat of freezing
rain particularly over central wi and the southern fox valley by
mid to late morning. Because temps start to approach freezing, and
the road temperature forecast calls for readings to warm above
freezing after around 10 am, the warming temperatures will
mitigate the risk of freezing rain somewhat. Higher uncertainty
will be over east-central wi due to the expected later arrival of
the precip. The freezing rain drizzle threat may not ramp up until
late morning or early afternoon across northern wi where temps
struggle to reach the freezing mark. Models, in general,
increased QPF through the day, which increases the threat of
hazardous travel. Due to the potential for 1-3 inches of snow and
some ice accumulations, will issue a winter weather advisory for
the morning for central wi, and from late tonight through the
afternoon for northern wi.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
issued at 210 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019
once our main storm departs Sunday night, the main story for next
week will be the well-below normal temperatures as an upper high
builds toward alaska and displaces a chunk of arctic air southward
into the northern plains great lakes. Snow chances next week
appear confined to Tuesday Tuesday night with the passage of a
weak clipper to our south and perhaps next Friday with a stronger
system moving through the great lakes.

Surface low is forecast to lift northeast into central or east-
central wi Saturday evening and intensify in the process as the
accompanying negatively-tilted shortwave trough moves across the
midwest. Besides strong lift from the deepening surface low,
northeast wi to reside in the favorable left exit region of the
upper jet for additional lift. Moisture will not be a problem with
models showing pw values of 0.50 to 0.75" which is about 200
percent of normal. In the mid-levels, models are indicating strong
q-g forcing over the entire forecast area, while the strongest
frontogenetical forcing exists across northern parts of central
wi. Thermal profiles show enough warm air across east-central wi
to keep precipitation as all rain, while north-central wi to be
all snow with a wintry mix in between. By later Saturday night,
the surface low tracks toward eastern sections of upper mi with
snow everywhere except east-central wi where the wintry mix to be
located. Snow accumulations by daybreak to range from 2 to 5"
central far northeast wi, 6-9 inches north-central wi. Due to
impending headlines for Saturday, prefer to hold on to the winter
storm watch for now to avoid additional headlines with the caveat
that winter storm warnings will eventually be needed.

Snow will continue Sunday morning as the shortwave trough moves
into the great lakes and a cyclonic flow to be in place.

Additional accumulations of an inch or less can be expected
central east-central wi, 2 to 5" for northern wi. The main story
for Sunday will be the strong west-northwest winds with a
sustained 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Even as the snow
either ends or becomes light Sunday afternoon, anticipate plenty
of blowing drifting snow especially on north-south roads.

Visibilities would be significantly impacted and traveling would
be hazardous. MAX temperatures to be in the upper 20s to around 30
degrees central wi, lower to middle 30s eastern wi around midday
with falling temperatures in the afternoon.

Any lingering light snow over far northern wi will end Sunday
evening as the system pulls farther away and high pressure begins
to build east from the northern plains. Skies should begin to
clear during the overnight hours with strong CAA sending 8h
temperatures down into the -18 to -22c range by 12z Monday. Winds
are forecast to weaken a bit (still 10 to 20 mph) and when
combined with min temperatures of zero to 5 below central wi, 5 to
10 above zero eastern wi, wind chills of -15 to -25f are expected
with possible headlines for central wi. This high pressure to
stretch from southern saskatchewan to the western great lakes
region on Monday and help to keep sky conditions generally partly
cloudy through the day. MAX temperatures for Monday to be much
colder than previous days with readings only from 5 to 10 above
central wi, 10 to 15 degrees eastern wi.

Models continue to struggle with a system headed toward wi on
Tuesday. The main culprit for the indecision appears to be the
strength of a rockies upper ridge. The gem and GFS are rather
weak, thus shortwave energy takes aim at wi, along with an
inverted surface trough. The GFS starts up light snow across
northern wi Tuesday morning, while the gem holds off on any snow
until Tuesday evening. The ECMWF has the stronger upper ridge,
thus shortwave energy dives to our south and we remain dry on
Tuesday. Prefer to focus higher chance or likely pops from Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night, however there is too much
uncertainty yet to mention accumulation potential. The snow
chances would then carry over into Wednesday morning until the
shortwave surface trough exit the area. Improving conditions are
then expected for Wednesday afternoon as another high pressure
starts to build into wi. MAX temperatures for Tuesday and
Wednesday to remain well-below normal (teens on Tuesday - upper
teens to lower 20s on Wednesday).

The high pressure is forecast to move into the midwest Wednesday
night and across southern sections of the great lakes on Thursday.

Quiet and continued cold conditions to persist with max
temperatures again in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Models are all over the place with the handling timing of the next
system for late Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is faster
stronger with the system, the gem is faster weaker with the system
and the ECMWF is slower stronger (holding off precipitation until
Friday night). For simplicity sake, will follow the consensus
solution which brings a small chance for light snow into northeast
wi on Friday. MAX temperatures for Friday to be in the lower to
middle 20s north-central wi, upper 20s to around 30 degrees east-
central wi.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 559 pm cst Fri feb 22 2019
vfr conditions are expected overnight except the area
north of rhinelander where light snow and MVFR conditions are
possible after 09z. An approaching winter storm will produce
periods of light precipitation across the area Saturday, with
ceilings and visibilities falling to ifr by afternoon in most
places. Freezing rain, sleet or rain is possible mainly east of
an imt to auw with snow further west. The precipitation will
change to all snow late Saturday night or early Sunday.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory from 6 am to noon cst Saturday for
wiz020-021-030-031-035>037-045.

Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for wiz005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-073-074.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 6 pm cst Saturday for
wiz005-010>013-018-019.

Short term... ..Mpc
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 10 mi33 min S 1.9 G 5.1 23°F 1028.1 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 14 mi23 min S 1 G 2.9 26°F 1028.8 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 22 mi33 min S 2.9 G 4.1 20°F 35°F1028.4 hPa-3°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 42 mi83 min Calm G 2.9 25°F 1028.8 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI24 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair24°F16°F71%1031.4 hPa
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI24 mi67 minS 48.00 miFair25°F21°F85%1030.7 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W6W5CalmSW3CalmW6SW3W4CalmW4W4CalmCalm--S7SW9S8SW9SW6S4--S5S4
1 day agoSW19
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W16----------------W14W13W12W13W12SW11SW9SW7SW8SW7SW9SW7
2 days agoSW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5SE7SE9E7E9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.