Saturday, June24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pacific City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 9:06PM Friday June 23, 2017 10:32 PM PDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:23AMMoonset 7:43PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 931 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Tonight..NE wind 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt...mainly below gaps in the coastal terrain. Wind waves ne 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 3 ft at 11 seconds, shifting to the sw 2 ft at 17 seconds after midnight.
Sat..N wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, backing to nw with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 4 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, shifting to S overnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the E 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SW swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..S wind 5 to 10 kt, veering to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun night..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the evening. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy drizzle and fog.
Mon..SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 4 ft. Patchy drizzle and fog.
Mon night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 4 ft. Patchy drizzle and fog.
Tue..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 931 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres over the northeast pacific and thermal low pres over the northern california and southern oregon coast will continue through Sat afternoon. Thermal low will back off the coast Sat night and Sun, resulting in a surge of southerly wind up the oregon coast. High pres rebuilds over the waters Mon night and Tue.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pacific City, OR
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location: 45.17, -123.97     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 240440
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
940 pm pdt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis High pressure over the pacific northwest will bring
unseasonably hot to even record breaking hot temperatures to
northwest oregon and southwest washington Saturday and Sunday. A
marine push should result in cooler temperatures beginning late
Sunday and Monday. A dry northwesterly flow pattern should then bring
more seasonable temperatures and a mix of morning clouds and
afternoon sunshine to the area next week.

Short term Tonight through Monday... An upper level ridge of high
pressure will slowly traverse across the pacific northwest over the
next 48 hours. This will produce the hottest temperatures so far this
year across northwest oregon and southwest washington with some
coastal locations flirting 90f and inland valley locations flirting
with 100f. Temperatures today stayed in the 70s along the coast where
north-northwesterly winds kept temperatures in check. Farther inland,
temperatures generally warmed into the low 90s for inland valley
locations except across southwest washington where temperatures aloft
have been slower to warm, and interestingly at eugene where
presumably the northerly winds upsloping in the south willamette
valley limited high temperatures versus just corvallis and salem.

The 00z ksle sounding came in with an 850mb temperature of ~20c,
which is slightly warmer than forecasted by the models, and
particularly the GEFS ensemble members from earlier today. This
certainly gives credence to the idea that 850mb temperatures will
warm further as we move into tomorrow and rise to at least ~22c for
kpdx and ~23-25c farther south towards ksle and keug. As thermal low
pressure shifts towards the coast and even slightly offshore
overnight, winds across the region should take on a more easterly
component. This should aid in the low level atmosphere mixing out to
the aforementioned warm temperatures aloft at 850mb on Saturday. This
would seem to support high temperatures approaching 100f for the pdx
metro and likely closer to 101-103f for the central and south
willamette valley so temperatures were nudged upward. It should be
noted that the air over eastern oregon and the columbia river gorge
will be slightly cooler than the air residing over western oregon so
temperatures should be slightly cooler near and within the columbia
river gorge on Saturday. As a result, continued the trend of keeping
the warmest temperatures in the pdx metro towards downtown and points
west and south.

It should also be noted that the offshore winds will likely allow
temperatures to warm rapidly along the coast Saturday morning with
many spots likely approaching 90f. Would not be surprised to see a
spot or two, particularly tillamook exceed 90f by quite a bit, but
confidence in this occurring is low. In addition, areas towards
newport, waldport and florence appear less likely to keep enough of
an east wind to warm up to near 90f so kept high temperatures cooler
in these locations.

Given the airmass will be dry and low temperatures Saturday night
will cool at least modestly well for the most part, think the current
advisories and warnings look good. The excessive heat warning for the
western columbia river gorge is in response to the combination of
high temperatures (although there will be plenty of other locations
that will likely end up hotter Saturday) and warm low temperatures
Saturday night where many areas within this zone will likely have a
hard time dropping below 65-70f. Such warm low temperatures greatly
increase the risk of heat related illness and stress, especially for
those without air conditioning.

It should be noted that some locations in the pdx metro near
troutdale and gresham will likely keep enough of an east wind
Saturday night that they will also struggle with getting much below
65f. In addition, some of the higher hills in the willamette valley
such as mt scott, the west hills, bald peak chehalem mountain on the
yamhill washington county line and the salem hills will likely remain
within the thermal belt and remain considerably warmer than nearby
adjacent valley bottoms. In fact, would not be surprised to see some
of these sites also only bottom out near 70f Saturday night despite
the dry air in place. Tried to capture this level of detail in the
grids. With that said, think all of these areas are a small enough
portion of their respective zones to warrant keeping the current heat
advisories in place versus upgrading the entire zones to excessive
heat warnings.

Sunday still looks on track to be a transition day as a southerly
wind reversal works its way up the coast. It is already off the far
southern oregon coast, a bit ahead of schedule, and is projected to
push onto the central oregon coast by late Saturday afternoon or
evening and eventually onto the north oregon coast either Saturday
night or early Sunday. Given the southerly wind reversal is on track
to slightly ahead of schedule, cooled temperatures along central
oregon coast and coast range for Sunday where it's looking more and
more likely the cooler marine air will exert its influence. Enough
marine air may also trickle into the willamette valley that
temperatures could end up 5-10f cooler than currently forecast, but
in general these days often end up warmer than forecasted by the
models, particularly over the pdx metro and columbia river gorge.

Would not surprise me to see high temperatures only top out in the
80s in eugene while the pdx metro and columbia river gorge flirt with
100f, but confidence in this extreme of a difference is low at this
point so largely kept the inherited Sunday temperature forecast as is
for now.

Regardless, there is high confidence thermal low pressure will shift
east of the cascades Sunday night and result in the entire cwa
cooling considerably by Monday.

Finally, a vort MAX lifting northeastward into northern california
and oregon late Sunday night and Monday will help to destabilize the
atmosphere is it brushes our southern cwa. At this point, it appears
there is a chance of thunderstorms grazing primarily the lane and
linn county cascades. The current forecast captures this well for
now, but a subtle track in the synoptic situation could very well
leave the area high and dry or open up a much larger portion of the
cwa to a thunderstorm threat late Sunday night and Monday. Neuman

Long term Monday night through Friday... No changes... Previous
discussion from Friday afternoon follows... Onshore flow continues
through at least Wednesday with seasonable temperatures and morning
marine stratus both Tuesday and Wednesday. Starting Thursday, there
are some differences between the GFS and ECMWF with the GFS moving an
upper ridge over the local area starting Thursday and into Friday,
while the ECMWF delays it until Friday or even Saturday. The
differences would be apparent in temperatures, where the GFS would
indicate a significant warming trend Thursday and Friday. The ecmwf
shows a similar trend, but manifesting more Saturday and Sunday
again. Bowen

Aviation Classic offshore flow pattern with high pressure over
washington and NE oregon, and thermal low pressure along the
oregon coast. Clear skies andVFR conditions expected through
Saturday, aside from some local vsby restrictions to 5-6sm along
the coast due to a very shallow and compressed marine layer. N-ne
winds will become gusty all areas by 18z sat, continuing through
the day.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR through Saturday. Gusty NE winds
expected to develop by 18z sat... With gusts up to 20-25 kt likely
during the afternoon and evening. Weagle

Marine High pressure over the northeast pacific and a thermal
trough along the northern california and southern oregon coast
will continue to bring gusty northerly winds and locally steep
seas through late tonight. Winds will turn weakly offshore by
early Saturday morning which will bring an end to our current
small craft advisories. NE winds will increase again as the heat
of the day strengthens the thermal trough inland and near the
coast. Issued a SCA for wind for gusts to 25 kt in the outer
waters Sat afternoon evening. Local gusts to 25 kt will be
possible in the inner waters as well, but localized to gaps in
the coastal terrain. A southerly wind reversal will move
northward across the waters Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a
sharp wind shift and a few hours of potentially dense fog.

Seasonal northerly winds return early next week as high pressure
builds back into the region. Weagle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Excessive heat warning from noon Saturday to 9 pm pdt Sunday
for western columbia river gorge.

Heat advisory from noon Saturday to 9 pm pdt Sunday for cascade
foothills in lane county-central columbia river gorge-
central willamette valley-greater portland metro area-
lower columbia-northern oregon cascade foothills.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 pm pdt Saturday for central coast
range of western oregon-coast range of northwest oregon-
south willamette valley.

Wa... Excessive heat warning from noon Saturday to 9 pm pdt Sunday
for western columbia river gorge.

Heat advisory from noon Saturday to 9 pm pdt Sunday for central
columbia river gorge-greater vancouver area-i-5 corridor
in cowlitz county-south washington cascade foothills.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 pm pdt Saturday for willapa hills.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 5 am pdt Saturday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Saturday
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 3 am pdt Saturday
for waters from cascade head to florence or from 10 to 60

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 3 am to
7 am pdt Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 27 mi44 min 53°F1017.3 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 38 mi44 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 51°F1015.4 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 39 mi32 min N 11 G 13 53°F 1015.7 hPa (-0.0)
46097 41 mi102 min N 16 56°F 1015 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 45 mi42 min N 19 G 21 55°F7 ft1015.5 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR19 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair63°F51°F68%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N3NW9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW12NW8NW9W10
2 days agoNW5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW9W13

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Sat -- 12:28 AM PDT     9.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:29 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM PDT     -1.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM PDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:36 PM PDT     2.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon
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Sat -- 12:21 AM PDT     7.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:24 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:49 AM PDT     -1.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:37 PM PDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.