Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne Falls, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 9:36PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 1:20 AM EDT (05:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:15AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1001 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Wednesday through Thursday morning...
Overnight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Thunderstorms with showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201706281015;;929102 FZUS53 KAPX 280201 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1001 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-281015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne Falls, MI
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location: 45.17, -84.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 280234
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1034 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Update
Issued at 902 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
early evening surface analysis reveals broad high pressure
centered across southern ohio and stretching northward through the
western great lakes. Earlier diurnally driven showers across ne
lower michigan have faded... With just some thin cirrus drifting
through the region.

Rest of tonight... High pressure and associated wedge of dry air
will hold... Maintaining mainly clear skies save for some periodic
cirrus passing through. Going forecast is looking pretty much on
target with only cosmetic tweaks made.

Near term (tonight through Wednesday)
issued at 310 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
high impact weather potential: heavy rains moving in Wednesday
afternoon.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level troughing was pushing across the eastern great lakes
this afternoon, while ridging was gradually moving across the nrn
plains. NRN michigan was in between in the NW flow aloft with a weak
shortwave sliding SE through the western great lakes. There was some
increase in higher level cloud with the wave, while diurnal CU has
also blossomed across areas away from the stabilizing westerly flow
coming off lakes superior and michigan. We still had some rather
steep lapse rates aloft, near 7c km, with lake breezes developed
across interior eastern upper. The lake breeze is trying to get
going across lake huron, but the overall slightly stronger gradient
flow in NRN lower has slowed this process. Further upstream, a more
defined shortwave trough was seen pushing across montana. The
associated sfc low was NE of there in canada, with a trailing warm
front stretched southward, working it's way toward the central
plains. Shower development out ahead of the warm front has just been
spotty, as deeper moisture has yet to be advected into the central
and NRN plains.

Heading through the afternoon, lake breezes are still expected to
develop across NE lower and both there and eastern upper (mainly
mackinac county) may see a few showers. Still doubt any thunder in
ne lower, but can't say there isn't a "slight" chance. Instability
still not expected to be much, around 200-300 MLCAPE 700-900 sbcape.

These showers fade by sundown with the departure of the weak
shortwave. Skies will be mostly clear through the night, with maybe
some increase in higher level clouds overnight as the aforementioned
montana shortwave ejects into the upper mississippi valley. Lows
tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s most areas, with low lying
areas down into the middle 40s. Could be cooler, but an increase in
winds just off the sfc not allowing that.

The main weather rolls in Wednesday. The shortwave pushes into the
western great lakes by the afternoon, the system warm front into nrn
michigan by evening. Forcing is looking pretty darn good with low to
mid level WAA strong, highlighted by a 50-55kt llj, resulting in the
strongest theta-e convergence across primarily eastern upper far
nw NRN lower michigan. There will also be a nice pocket of upper
divergence in a double jet structure aloft. Throw in some additional
dpva forcing and see no reason to sway from the beginnings of
potential heavy rains developing by late afternoon and into the
evening (more on that below). Not much, if any, instability
foreseen. Again, after modifying soundings, see only a couple
hundred j kg possible with a strong 800-700mb warm nose cap. Removed
all thunder from the Wednesday forecast. Skies to become cloudy by
afternoon, with temperatures still being able to climb into a good
chunk of the day. Highs in the middle 70s most areas.

Short term (Wednesday night through Friday)
issued at 256 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Heavy rain event possible Wednesday night...

high impact weather potential... Heavy rainfall flooding possible
Wednesday night.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Sfc low tracking out of the plains will
cross the region late Wednesday early Thursday. Cold front passes
through Thursday. Secondary low develops on the cold front to our sw
and tracks N Friday into the great lakes region.

Primary forecast concerns challenges... Potential heavy rain event
setting up Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Warm advection isentropic lift and deep moisture ahead of the low
will move in on SW flow out of the gulf Wednesday afternoon and
evening. LLJ of 50kt+ develops to our SW which lifts the
warmth moisture instability over the front with some help from the
right rear quad of 100kt+ upper jet. Column mean rh values are
high (80%+), warm cloud depths are 11kft deep and pwats are 1.5"+
from 00z Thu to 18z thu. Best forcing is ahead of the LLJ which
should happen early on in the event 00-06z. Model differences
still in timing of sw-ne oriented cold front moving through the
region. CAPE values on slower models peak around 1000 j kg before
the front moves through Thursday. Any convection that develops
ahead of the cold front could be slow moving due to orientation of
mean wind llj.

With all of the rainfall over the past week, 6hr flash flood
guidance values are down to near 1.5" over parts of the cwa. Model
6hr QPF values of 1.00 to 1.25" so should be close. Fast movement of
initial wave lead me to believe that flooding is possible, but
widespread flash flooding threat not great enough to warrant watch.

Will issue statement on flooding possibility with event still 48+
hours away. Wpc has placed all of our CWA in the marginal to slight
risk of excessive rainfall for day 3.

Next shot of rain arrives Friday as slug of moisture with second low
moves into the great lakes.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 256 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
another long wave trough covers the western great lakes through
early next week with a nearly zonal flow likely developing toward
midweek. Upper level disturbances moving through the trough in
combination with instability from heating of the day will lead to
shower chances (and perhaps a little thunder) through Monday. High
pressure is then expected to lead to precipitation free conditions
Tuesday. Temperatures will be generally a few degrees below average
for late june early july.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday evening)
issued at 1034 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
no issues for the terminal sites tonight as diurnally driven
clouds (and spotty showers) have faded with loss of heating.

AnticipatedVFR conditions through tonight and Wednesday morning.

Another system will be impacting the region later Wednesday
through Thursday with an area of low pressure deepening and
lifting through the upper midwest into the northern lakes region
by Thursday morning. This system will bring another round of
heavier rainfall to northern michigan... With rain spreading into
the region Wednesday afternoon and persisting through Wednesday
night. With the rain... CIGS will lower to MVFR heights Wednesday
afternoon evening. Also... There will be a risk for thunderstorms
at the terminal sites... Primarily Wednesday evening.

Finally... Strong low level winds develop on Wednesday with gusts
running 20 to 30 knots. Llws will be a possibility later in the
day and Wednesday night as rainfall cools stabilizes the boundary
layer but winds remain strong aloft.

Marine
Issued at 256 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
sfc high pressure crosses south of the great lakes through tonight,
with low pressure and a warm front working into the region Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night. The cold front then crosses through
the day Thursday. The pressure gradient really starts to tighten
Wednesday and Wednesday night for solid advisory level gusts. The
warm front and low pressure Wednesday afternoon and night will also
bring periods of showers and thunderstorms with pretty heavy
rainfall. Southerly winds will turn more westerly behind the cold
front Thursday and Thursday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 8 pm Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday
for lhz346-347.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday
for lhz348-349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday
for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 8 pm Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday
for lsz322.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday
for lsz321.

Update... Tba
near term... Smd
short term... Kjf
long term... Ajs
aviation... Tba
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 18 mi31 min S 5.8 G 5.8 59°F 62°F1 ft1016.8 hPa55°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi41 min S 5.1 G 8 57°F 1015.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi51 min SW 8 G 9.9 59°F 1014.2 hPa43°F
45175 46 mi21 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 60°F 60°F1 ft1016 hPa (+1.0)
WSLM4 48 mi81 min SSW 12 61°F 58°F1014.8 hPa (+0.0)51°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI17 mi28 minWSW 310.00 miFair52°F45°F77%1016.8 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI17 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair51°F50°F98%1015.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI19 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair50°F48°F94%1016.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI20 mi27 minSE 310.00 miFair56°F50°F80%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from GLR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W5W5W5W3W6W6W7W7W8W9
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W8W66W5W4W3CalmCalmSW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW5SW4W5SW7W12W16
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W11W16SW12W9NW4NW4N6W3NW4NW4
2 days agoSW4W5CalmSW5W5W7W5W6W9W5W11W5W12
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W8W11W10W11W7CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.