Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne Falls, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:27PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:48PMMoonset 10:27PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 358 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201709261600;;947057 FZUS53 KAPX 260758 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 358 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-261600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne Falls, MI
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location: 45.17, -84.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 261047
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
647 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 332 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

One final hot day...

high impact weather potential... Few non-severe t-storms this
afternoon and tonight.

All good things must come to an end. One last, final, this-is-it
toasty day is ahead before autumn asserts itself. Upstream, stalled
front is lying across NW il eastern wi central upper mi (just
east of esc-munising). This front will finally get kicked across
northern mi, as the upper ridge gets suppressed by a 500mb trof
passing just north of superior this evening. FROPA timing will be
this evening. Temp and precip trends are the main concern.

One would think that, with such unseasonably warm air in place, and
a favorable evening fropa, we could potentially see some interesting
wx. One would be incorrect. Moisture is our primary limiting factor;
our airmass is warm but not terribly moist. 00z apx observed pwat
was only 1.03 inches (unimpressive for an airmass this warm), with
relatively dry air below 500mb except at the top of the mixed layer.

We do not see a substantial influx of moisture before fropa, though
there will still be a tendency toward pooling in the weakly
convergent zone just ahead of and along the front. Still, as
mixing deepens during the day today, we will be mixing down drier
air. Models are generally not enthusiastic about precip at all,
with chance to slight chance pops from guidance, and the gfs
looking a touch wetter than the nam. Rap doesn't have more than a
few showers during the daylight hours today.

So for today, we could see a few showers perhaps a t-storm cook off
this afternoon in parts of both peninsulas. Highest pops (such as
they are) will be in western chip mack cos, and from cad to glr in
northern lower. MLCAPE values might reach 500j kg, so difficult to
be enthusiastic about thunder chances at all, let alone anything
strong.

Somewhat higher pops tonight with fropa, though again nothing to get
terribly excited about. Narrow plume of somewhat higher
instability (mucapes to 750j kg) will cross the region from W to e
before 06z, though that instability will be waning with time.

Limited instability, unimpressive forcing, and increasingly
elevated nature of convection will limit potential for strong svr
storms. Best moisture in a relative sense is post-frontal, with a
several- hour window of near saturation up to 700mb (before moist
layer thins out very late). This will support plenty of clouds and
still some spotty showers post-fropa overnight.

Max temps today in the 80s to around 90f. All record highs are once
again threatened to some degree. Min temps tonight will be much
cooler, 50s in most places, closer to 60f near saginaw bay.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 332 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Much cooler temperatures for middle to late this week...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: ever so slowly flattening mid-upper level ridge
that brought us our late season heat over the past week will press
well off to our east this evening, followed by a mid level wave and
attendant surface low tracking across southern ontario tonight. By
Wednesday morning, corresponding potent cold front tied to
aforementioned low pressure is expected to have cleared the forecast
area with lowering heights aloft and broad northwesterly flow
helping to usher in temperatures some 20-30 degrees cooler than this
past weekend. Broad upper troughing then remains in place through
the end of the work week with a secondary wave ushering in a
reinforcing cool shot of air aloft, along with the threat for
showers during the Thursday evening through Friday time frame.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: significantly cooler
temperatures and the threat for scattered showers arriving late in
the day Thursday across some areas.

Aside from a lingering isolated shower or two across eastern upper
early Wednesday morning, little in way of sensible weather is
anticipated for the remainder of the day. Certainly the headline
will be the cooler temperatures as highs struggle to reach the mid-
60s for most (a bit warmer across the southeastern cwa). Morning
clouds are expected to gradually thin, giving way to partly sunny
skies as weak surface ridging noses into the area as a result of
high pressure centered across the central plains.

A mostly sunny and cool start to the day Thursday gives way to
increasing cloudiness across eastern upper tip of the mitt and
eventually elsewhere Thursday evening as another shortwave
approaches the area from the northwest. This wave will usher in a
reinforcing shot of cool air with the coolest days of the week
expected to follow (Friday-Saturday). The combination of increased
mid level support and lake processes beginning to ramp up (delta t's
of 15-18 c) may bring the possibility of a few showers to sections
of eastern upper and northwest lower as early as late Thursday
afternoon evening with a greater threat for shower activity Thursday
night and early Friday.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 324 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

The coolest temps (below normal) of the week are expected Friday and
Saturday as high temps struggle to reach the upper 50s to low 60s.

Lows in the 30s across inland locations may even promote a bit of
patchy frost both nights. Increased mid level support and lake
processes mentioned above should allow for shower activity to be
commonplace, most numerous across eastern upper and northwest lower
late Thursday night through early Friday morning. However, precip
chances begin to gradually wane by midday Friday as mid level
ridging and attendant surface high pressure impede on the region
from the west. Thus, mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend
with high temps gradually climbing a few degrees each day...

returning to near normal by the end of the weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 646 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
fog departing this morning. MVFR CIGS possible tonight.

A stalled cold front just W of lower mi will finally get pushed
east this evening. Patchy morning fog will erode soon after
sunrise. Some showers and perhaps a t-storm could get kicked off
ahead of and with the front. Lower (mainly MVFR) CIGS are
expected behind the front late tonight.

Sw winds today will veer NW by late tonight.

Marine
Issued at 324 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
fairly light southerly winds will be seen today, ahead of a cold
front that will finally cross the region this evening. Gusty W to
nw winds will arrive behind that front. Small craft advisories
will be needed on most waters as soon as very late tonight,
continuing into Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jz
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 18 mi30 min E 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 68°F1 ft1015.2 hPa66°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi60 min SSE 5.1 G 12 67°F 1013.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi52 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 1013 hPa57°F
45175 46 mi30 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 68°F 68°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI17 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair56°F51°F84%1015.4 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI17 mi45 minENE 410.00 miFair59°F57°F94%1014.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI19 mi48 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist54°F52°F96%1014.6 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI20 mi46 minSE 410.00 miFair62°F60°F96%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from GLR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S7S6SW6S9SW8SW7CalmW4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW4SW7W75S8S10S11S10S8S6S4S4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4
2 days agoW3SW10SW12W13W13W15
G19
W10W7W6SW7SW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.