Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 8:04 AM CDT (13:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 329 Am Cdt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday morning...
Today..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..W wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Mostly clear.
LMZ541 Expires:201809251615;;176276 FZUS53 KGRB 250829 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 329 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-251615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 251126
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
626 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
updated aviation portion for 12z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Wednesday
issued at 322 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
a slow moving cold front, currently analyzed from the western up
of michigan to extreme southeastern minnesota, will track over
central wisconsin later this morning. The front will then stall
over central wisconsin early this afternoon before a mid level
pv anomaly gives it a final push east through eastern wisconsin
late this afternoon and early this evening. There is currently a
downward trend in precipitation with the front as a PV anomaly races
north into canada. However a second stronger PV anomaly will
provide the dynamics for an uptick in precipitation trends during
the afternoon and evening hours.

As the cold front and PV anomaly move through eastern wisconsin
there will be some instability as mucapes rise to 500 to 1000 j kg
with bulk shear values of 40 to 50 knots. There is a marginal
chance that some of the storms across east-central wisconsin this
afternoon could be severe, with the main threat being damaging
winds and small hail.

Highs today will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across
north-central wisconsin behind the cold front, with highs in the
lower 70s across east-central wisconsin ahead of the cold front.

Rain chances will end from west to east later this evening into
the overnight hours as the cold front clears the western great
lakes region. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower to
middle 40s.

High pressure will then build in across the mid mississippi valley
region, with ridging extending north into the great lakes on
Wednesday. This will bring some sunshine to the area, however with
a much cooler airmass in place highs will be limited to the middle
50s across the north, with highs around 60 across the east and
south.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
issued at 322 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
an amplified mean flow will begin the extended forecast with a
closed upper low over the eastern pacific, a strong upper ridge
from just off the west coast to alaska and a broad, upper trough
east of the rockies. This deep trough will bring unseasonably
cool, unsettled weather to northeast wi from Thursday-Saturday. By
early next week, the upper ridge breaks down and the pacific upper
low weakens into a shortwave trough that moves across the western
conus. The mean flow into wi turns from northwest to west-
southwest and this would allow milder air to return with
temperatures closer to normal by Monday. Precipitation appears to
be above normal with cool instability showers initially, then with
the warmer air returning.

Clouds are expected to gradually overspread northeast wi Wednesday
night as a surface high pulls away and a cold front moves into the
upper ms valley. The onset of waa, combined with the approaching
cold front (and its associated mid-level shortwave trough) could
bring a few showers toward central wi late at night. Otherwise,
dry conditions should hold with min temperatures in the lower to
middle 40s, except upper 40s across door county. The cold front
moves into wi on Thursday accompanied by the shortwave trough to
bring at least a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to the
forecast area. Instability moisture appear limited despite some
strong shear, thus any storms would be sub-severe. Higher pops to
be placed across northern wi where stronger forcing is advertised
by the models. MAX temperatures on Thursday to range from the
middle 50s north-central wi, to the lower 60s central east-central
wi.

Rain shower chances to carry over into Thursday evening over
eastern wi until the cold front clears the area. The rest of
Thursday night should see some partial clearing, somewhat blustery
and cool conditions. Despite min temperatures falling into the
middle to upper 30s across northern central wi, there appears to
be enough mixing to prevent any frost from developing. Eastern wi
will see temperatures drop into the lower to middle 40s (warmest
near lake mi). Still have questions regarding to precipitation
chances on Friday as the models differ on the location of the cold
front. The next wave moving through the upper trough will provide
mid-level isentropic lift north of the frontal boundary. If the
front can sag far enough south (gfs), then any showers would stay
to our south. If the front is slow (ecwmf), then showers would
likely overspread most of the forecast area Friday afternoon. May
need to at least mention a small chance pop over most of the
forecast area. Friday will be a cool day with MAX temperatures
only in the lower 50s north, middle to upper 50s south.

The rain chances would continue into Friday evening generally
south of a line from marshfield to marinette until the wave
isentropic upglide shift farther east later Friday night. If we
can get any breaks in the clouds, we could be looking at frost
over much of northern central wi. May add at least some frost to
the forecast for starters, but if skies can clear at all, frost
headlines would be needed. High pressure to then provide break in
the precipitation chances on Saturday, with a return of sunshine
and less wind. Saturday still looks like the coolest day of the
extended forecast with MAX temperatures in the upper 40s north-
central, lower to middle 50s elsewhere.

Another cold, potentially frosty night is forecast for Saturday
night with the high pressure in place over the great lakes. The
high pressure shifts east on Sunday and with the mean flow
becoming more westerly by this time, milder air will attempt to
move back into wi. This could bring small pops back into the
forecast by Sunday afternoon, but a lack of moisture would make
any precipitation that falls on the very light side. Max
temperatures Sunday to warm a bit into the lower 50s north, middle
50s to around 60 degrees south.

More unsettled is expected Sunday night into Monday as a warm
front lifts north into wi, while additional mid-level shortwaves
move through the west-southwest mean flow. Depending on where this
warm front resides and where the baroclinic zone sets up, some of
the showers thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain
amounts. Way too early to determine any potential severe storms,
just something to watch in the coming days. MAX temperatures to
range from the middle 50s north, lower to middle 60s south.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 626 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
low clouds and some fog will impact the airports this morning.

Although the fog should dissipate later this morning, low MVFR and
ifr clouds will linger at the TAF sites for most of the day.

There may be some occasional breaks in the clouds withVFR
conditions, these breaks should fill in as a cold front approaches
from the west. Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and evening as this cold front tracks east. The
best chance for thunderstorms will be at the eastern TAF sites
late this afternoon and early this evening. Placed a tempo group
at these sites with this issuance for tsra. Winds will shift from
the south, to the west then northwest at the front passes.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Kallas
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 10 mi25 min SSE 1 G 1.9 63°F 1010.8 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 13 mi25 min SSW 4.1 G 7 65°F 1011.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi35 min 64°F 66°F1010.2 hPa58°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi25 min SSW 6 G 7 63°F 1010.8 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 39 mi25 min SSW 12 G 14 64°F 64°F1010.1 hPa63°F
45014 43 mi35 min SSW 9.7 G 12 71°F 65°F1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi69 minSW 73.00 miFog/Mist64°F62°F93%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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1 day ago33E5E6E8E8SE9E10E9S10SE6SE9SE9SE8E10E11E6SE11--S9S8S8S7S11
G18
2 days ago33646SW10
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SW8SW8S9SW5NW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmSW3CalmW4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.