Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McMinnville, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:44PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 1:36 PM PDT (20:36 UTC) Moonrise 11:33PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201905222330;;280697 Fzus56 Kpqr 221521 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 821 Am Pdt Wed May 22 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-222330- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 821 Am Pdt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..NW wind to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy drizzle in the evening, then areas of drizzle after midnight.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of drizzle in the morning.
Thu night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW wind to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 10 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 10 ft.
Sun..NW wind to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 7 ft.
PZZ200 821 Am Pdt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will reside over the waters through the weekend. A low pressure system will dive south through western washington Friday and then across central oregon Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McMinnville, OR
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location: 45.21, -123.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 221623
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
922 am pdt Wed may 22 2019
updated marine and aviation sections

Synopsis Onshore flow will bring low clouds into the interior
this morning, but clearing into the afternoon. A warming trend for
the next few days as high pressure begins to build over the region,
while some showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop each
afternoon over the cascades. Another disturbance moves into the
region Friday, for a return of cooler temperatures, clouds, and
rain chances.

Short term Today through Friday... Upper low has moved into
northern california early this morning. Meanwhile heights are slowly
rising across the pacific northwest as high pressure will begin to
build in from the northeastern pacific. Meanwhile, some very light
returns evident on NWS doppler radar across the cascade foothills of
linn and lane county in the flow back around the upper low, but these
won't amount to much more than some light sprinkles of rain.

Increasing onshore flow under building high pressure aloft will bring
about a return of our typical morning clouds afternoon Sun type of
pattern for the interior lowlands. Some moisture wrapping around the
upper low could lead to some afternoon and evening convection over
the cascades (especially near the crest). Model forecast soundings
indicate enough instability to perhaps lead to a few lightning
strikes, again favoring locations close to the crest of the cascades.

Have trended daily afternoon temperatures warmer as the week, with
temperatures closer to seasonal normals today and even warmer
Thursday with a mostly dry day for everyone except those in the
higher cascades. The next disturbance moves into the region Friday
for cooler temperatures and an increase in both clouds and rain.

Cullen

Long term Friday night through Tuesday. No changes, previous
discussion follows. Models are in agreement that another shortwave
will drop south in the northerly flow with a cut off low developing
over northwest oregon Friday for more showers and isolated
thunderstorms. That low moves slowly south Saturday,but a trough
remains around the area Sunday with the biggest shower thunderstorm
threat over the cascades. It appears that we will remain in that
pattern through early next week with mostly dry conditions in the
valleys but showers in the mountains. schneider

Aviation As of 16z MVFR stratus covered the coast and well
into the coastal river valleys. The stratus also pushed up the
columbia river to kpdx and into the west end of the columbia
river gorge. Tops were generally around 030. The moderate onshore
low-level flow will maintain MVFR conditions for the coastal
sites through tonight. A deeper marine layer overnight will
result in slightly higher cigs, but still in the MVFR category.

Not expecting ifr CIGS for the coast, but there could be ifr vis
due to drizzle. Inland areas improve toVFR by 19z. Will need to
watch for remnant convective activity drifting off the north
oregon cascades into the north cascade foothills and possibly
east portions of the north willamette valley and clark county in
sw washington early this evening. Marine stratus spreads inland
overnight, but CIGS may end up at low-endVFR. Will likely go
with CIGS 025 for the interior TAF sites to hedge on the side of
caution.

Kpdx and approaches... MVFR stratus at the terminal and vicinity
as of 16z. The stratus will gradually erode, withVFR developing
around 19z. There is a small threat of showers for the terminal
and vicinity from 01z to 03z thu. Models suggest this may be
convective debris from cells drifting off the cascades. Marine
stratus returns late tonight. Will go with CIGS around 025, but
there is the possibility CIGS may end up at low-endVFR. Weishaar

Marine Minimal changes to marine forecast. Model continue to
show small craft advisory level winds speeds over the outer
waters through at least 12z thu. The strongest speeds will be beyond
20 nm. Not expecting small craft advisory speeds for the inner
waters, but there is the potential for 25 kt gusts in pzz255 late
this afternoon through tonight.

This northerly wind pattern continues through at the weekend.

Wind speeds look to ease Thu night and Fri as another upper low
drops south from british columbia. This low will deepen the
marine layer. However, northwest wind behind the departing system
may produce gusts to 30 kt across the northwest portion of pzz270
late Thu night and fri. It appears the gradient weakens over the
weekend, with any small craft advisory wind potential confined to
the very far outer waters.

Seas will remain around 10 ft through Thu morning. Meanwhile, the
dominant period is forecast to shorten from 10 to 11 seconds
today, to 8 to 9 seconds by tonight. Although wave heights fall
just under 10 ft Thu afternoon, square-sea conditions can be
expected. Will likely extend the small craft advisory for
hazardous seas through at least 12z Fri in the afternoon
forecast.

Model guidance shows seas exceeding 10 ft again Fri as the next
low pressure area along the british columbia coast drops south.

Seas then fall just below 10 ft Sat and look to continue falling
through Sun to around 4 to 5 feet. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 5 am pdt Thursday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Thursday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 45 mi37 min 58°F1018 hPa (+0.7)
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 61 mi37 min NW 7 G 8 55°F

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR4 mi44 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F52°F57%1015.3 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR22 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast67°F48°F53%1015.4 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi44 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F50°F55%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from MMV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm5N9N11N10N6N3CalmW3W5W4W3SW5W6W4CalmCalmW6SW6S5Calm45
1 day agoSE9SE9
G14
E8SE8SE7S3NW10NW6S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmE4E5NW4NW4N5S5NE6CalmCalmN3
2 days agoW5N7W3W12W3W4SW4CalmSW4SW6SW4SW4SW4CalmSW5SW3CalmW4W44S3S4SE6SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Wed -- 02:51 AM PDT     7.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:38 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:50 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:16 AM PDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM PDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM PDT     2.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.7677.36.95.84.32.50.9-0.3-0.9-0.70.31.73.44.75.65.95.54.83.93.12.83

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Wed -- 03:48 AM PDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:37 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:48 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:19 PM PDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM PDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.94.55.86.25.95.24.231.70.6-0.2-0.5-0.30.72.33.84.854.74.13.42.62

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.