Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 9:18PM Thursday May 25, 2017 1:01 AM EDT (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:16AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1042 Pm Edt Wed May 24 2017
Overnight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. . Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201705251045;;162287 FZUS53 KAPX 250242 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1042 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ342-251045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 250350
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1150 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Update
Issued at 928 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
next wave of forcing and deeper moisture making slow but steady
progress northwest on north side of fully mature ohio valley low
pressure. Band of attendant showers just pushing onshore down near
saginaw bay. Radar trends confirm high res guidance progs of
backing this band of showers further northwest with time, with
showers looking like a pretty good bet through the early morning,
particularly across northeast lower michigan. Loss of any
diurnally driven instability should negate any thunder concerns
and keep rainfall intensity limited. As one would expect given
clouds and rain trends, not expecting much of a nocturnal
temperature response tonight, with lows by morning only falling
into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Near term (tonight through Thursday)
issued at 325 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Broad surface low remains centered over
the ohio valley this afternoon... With the upper low centered to the
west over missouri. Scattered shower activity continues across much
of our cwa... But has diminished in areal coverage as deeper moisture
becomes better focused to the south around the surface low center.

The few breaks in ovc we have seen across southern sections of our
cwa have quickly filled back in as expected... Greatly limiting our
capacity for diurnal destabilization. Attm... All thunder remains
south of michigan within better instability... Lift and moisture
values.

After a lull in the shower action for the balance of the afternoon
and early evening... Deep moisture and better forcing will lift back
into michigan later this evening... Overnight and into Thursday as
the surface low lifts into eastern lake erie. Still appears that
eastern sections of our CWA will see the highest pops during this
time where the deepest moisture and strongest forcing will reside.

Virtually no instability will be available anywhere close to our cwa
tomorrow... So no chance of thunder.

Low temps tonight will cool into the low to mid 50s. Temps will not
go very far on Thursday across the eastern two-thirds of northern
lower michigan... As temps hold mainly in the mid to upper 50s all
day. Warmest temps will actually be realized across eastern upper
and far NW lower michigan Thursday afternoon... With highs warming
into the low to mid 60s.

Short term (Thursday night through Saturday)
issued at 325 pm edt Wed may 24 2017

Turning partly cloudy and warmer...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

The upper level low will finally lose its grip over northern
michigan (at least eventually). However, there could still be a few
lingering showers across eastern zones through at least Thursday
night. Will continue with the dry forecast per the blend for Friday
but still would not be surprised if we see a few popup showers
developing. Otherwise, improving conditions with warming
temperatures expected through the period. Highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 Friday and the upper 60s to middle 70s Saturday. Lows in
the middle 40s to lower 50s for Thursday and Friday night.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 325 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
resolving the precip chances for Sunday Monday continues to be an
issue. Starting to see a bit of convergence in the handling of the
h5 low over ontario and the great lakes, which should bring some
increasing confidence with the rain chances in the coming days. At
this point, i'm favoring the european solution which is holding off
the bulk of the rain until later Monday evening. Still some guidance
bringing rain Sunday, and blended pops continue to reflect that, but
expect that focus will narrow to more of a one day period over the
next few cycles. Temperatures will begin above normal for the
weekend, gradually cooling to slightly below normal by mid-week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1148 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
low pressure slowly pivoting south of our area will continue to
send another round of deeper moisture and attendant MVFR ifr
producing CIGS back west across the TAF sites early this morning,
likely lasting much of the day. Showers are also expected,
especially at kapn through this morning. May see some more patchy
fog br, but not expecting it to be as widespread as last night.

Light east winds become a bit gusty today.

Marine
Issued at 325 pm edt Wed may 24 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight thru Thursday
night across most of our nearshore area. Conditions may approach
criteria briefly on Thursday for portions of our lake huron
nearshore area... But will hold off on issuance of a SCA for this
area for now. Scattered showers will become more numerous later this
evening... Overnight and Thursday as low pressure and deep moisture
lift into the southern great lakes region... With the best chance of
precip along our lake huron nearshore areas.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Msb
near term... Mlr
short term... Ajs
long term... Alm
aviation... Msb
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 14 mi21 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 48°F 42°F1 ft1006.2 hPa48°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi81 min ENE 7 G 8 45°F 1005.8 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi43 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 51°F 1005.1 hPa47°F
WSLM4 44 mi31 min NNE 13 54°F 46°F1006.1 hPa48°F
45175 44 mi21 min ENE 9.7 G 12 54°F 46°F1006 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi3.8 hrsNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F51°F84%1006.4 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi3.8 hrsNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F52°F90%1005.4 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi3.8 hrsNNE 510.00 miOvercast58°F50°F76%1004.7 hPa
Gaylord, Otsego County Airport, MI22 mi68 minNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F48°F77%1004.7 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E3CalmCalmNE3E5E6E7NE4E5E3E6E5E8E6E5E9NE9NE9NE9E8NE6NE8NE5
1 day agoSW7SW7SW5SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmN4N7N7N6N7N3N5N7N6N8CalmE5
2 days agoSW5SW8SW9S8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.