Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 4:59PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 6:54 AM EST (11:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 309 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.gale warning in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the morning. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201711211615;;733559 FZUS53 KAPX 210809 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 309 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-211615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211133
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
633 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 231 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Windy and turning colder today and tonight with lake effect
precipitation developing...

high impact weather potential... Mix of rain and snow changing to all
snow with minor accumulations and gusty winds.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep low pressure is centered just north
of lake superior early this morning... With a trailing cold front
extending thru central lake superior thru eastern wisconsin into
iowa and kansas. Strong low level southerly flow WAA continues
across our entire CWA at this hour ahead of this cold front. S sw
winds are gusting to 25 to 35 kts ... Especially along our lake
michigan shore areas... Keeping temps in the 40s even at this early
morning hour. Local and upstream radars remain echo-free thanks to
plenty of dry low mid level air still in place.

Wx will change substantially as we head thru today and tonight. Cold
front will sweep thru our CWA this morning... Reaching the thumb area
by around 18z... With the upper level trough axis clearing our CWA by
mid to late evening. Strong CAA will quickly commence in the wake of
the cold front this morning... With the heart of the cold air
arriving with the upper level trough axis this afternoon and
tonight. Thus... Our high temps for the day will occur during the
morning before temps begin to fall this afternoon as CAA begins.

Initial push of colder air this morning should begin to activate the
lakes... But low level temp profile suggests any precip that develops
will be mainly rain... With some snow mixing in across eastern upper
michigan and within the higher elevations of northern lower
michigan. Arrival of significantly colder air with the upper trough
axis during the afternoon along with the arrival of a large area of
wrap-around low level moisture will enhance ongoing lake effect
precip and will gradually switch precip to all snow from NW to se.

Still expect only minor snow accumulations (less than an inch) for
the afternoon for areas targeted by NW flow as low level winds shift
to a NW trajectory behind the upper trough axis. Portions of eastern
upper michigan will see an additional inch or two tonight... With
less than an inch expected across NW lower michigan tonight.

Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 20s tonight thanks to
ongoing caa.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 231 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Lingering light lake effect diminishes Wednesday...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: by early Wednesday morning, weak warm air
advection is expected to be underway across northern michigan.

Combined with limited lingering synoptic support and expansive
surface high pressure nosing in from the south, any lingering light
lake effect snow showers are expected to diminish. The next system
of interest approaches the region on Thursday in the form of a cold
front tied to low pressure over hudson bay skirting the far northern
reaches of the forecast area. By and large, it does not like
anything of high impact and may struggle to produce much more than
flurries before exiting Thursday evening.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: diminishing lake effect
Wednesday morning. Limited snow shower threat Thursday.

As was alluded to above, a significant diminishing trend to
lingering lake effect snow showers is anticipated Wednesday morning
as anemic moisture and synoptic support, along with lowering
inversion heights and weak warm advection all suggest scattered snow
showers end across northern lower by mid-late morning and across
eastern upper around midday. Perhaps another couple of tenths of new
snow prior to midday; otherwise, little in the way of consequence.

Quiet weather is expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning before another cold front approaches the region from the
north. Current trends suggest the greatest pre-frontal moisture and
support will remain over southern ontario with only a few snow
showers developing as far south as eastern upper diminishing to
perhaps a few flurries across sections of northeast lower (have
opted to exclude the 21 00z NAM as it appears overly agressive with
precip development, but remains a trend to monitor with busy holiday
travel in full swing). Otherwise, thanksgiving is shaping up to be a
dry and seasonable day across the bulk of northern michigan with
highs topping out in the mid-upper 30s area-wide.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 231 am est Tue nov 21 2017
high impact weather potential: accumulating lake effect snow chances
increase later Saturday through Sunday.

Attention in the extended portion of the forecast revolves around
the Friday through Sunday timeframe as active weather returns to the
heart of the country.

Warm air advection is expected to ramp up in earnest across the
region late Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of a potent
clipper system set to trek across southern canada late this week
into the upcoming weekend. While a small threat for a rain snow mix
exists across far northern locales during a brief window of
isentropically driven precip on Friday, the bigger story will be
widespread rainfall late Friday afternoon through Friday night
before much cooler air wraps into northern michigan behind the
departing system. Lake effect snow chances ramp up downwind of lakes
superior and michigan as early as Saturday afternoon... Potentially
continuing through Sunday night. Plenty of time for the details to
fall into place regarding the exact threat areas and snow
accumulation, but worth following later outlooks through the
upcoming holiday weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 632 am est Tue nov 21 2017
llws will persist at all northern lower michigan TAF sites thru
this morning before a cold front sweeps thru the region. Winds
will shift to the NW and will gust to 25 kts with some higher
gusts expected. Colder air arriving behind the front will produce
lake effect clouds and mixed rain snow showers today... Becoming
all snow later this afternoon and tonight as the heart of the cold
air arrives.VFR CIGS will drop to lowVFR high MVFR as these
lake clouds and precip develop. Vsbys will drop to MVFR ifr within
some of the snow showers that develop. Area of enhanced low level
moisture clouds accompanying the upper level trough will lend to
ongoing lake clouds precip later today and tonight.

Marine
Issued at 231 am est Tue nov 21 2017
winds and waves will continue to reach gale warning SCA criteria
thanks to strong southerly flow and WAA ahead of the approaching
cold front early this morning and then the beginning of CAA in the
wake of the front today and tonight. Lake effect precip will begin
to develop this morning as CAA begins... And will become further
enhanced this afternoon and tonight as the heart of the cold air
along with an area of low level moisture arrive with the upper
trough axis. Winds and chances of precip will diminish on Wednesday
as high pressure begins to build into the region.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for lhz345-346-349.

Gale warning until 11 pm est this evening for lhz347-348.

Lm... Gale warning until 11 am est this morning for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for lsz322.

Gale warning until 11 pm est this evening for lsz321.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi61 min WSW 25 G 25 47°F 996.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi54 min W 15 G 19 48°F 993.5 hPa (+0.5)29°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi59 minSW 7 G 1010.00 miFair46°F35°F67%995.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi59 minSW 14 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F35°F69%994.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi59 minSW 8 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F36°F69%995.9 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi61 minSW 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F30°F70%996.2 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S6S5SE4SE5S8S7S10
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1 day agoW17
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2 days agoE4E3N9
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NE4N9N5N10
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.