Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:38PM Sunday August 20, 2017 11:17 AM EDT (15:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:20AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1058 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201708202300;;677337 FZUS53 KAPX 201458 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1058 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-202300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 201450
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1050 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Update
Issued at 1050 am edt Sun aug 20 2017
12z surface composite chart shows a 1021mb surface high centered
over western pennsylvania... While upstream a cold occluded front
extends from a low center over far northwest ontario south into
minnesota nebraska. Warm front from central minnesota southeast
into eastern iowa central illinois and down along the ohio
river... Leftover MCS moving through iowa missouri with a well
defined outflow boundary mesohigh along with it. Some thin ci
remnants from this convection spreading into western lower... Water
vapor imagery not showing much over the great lakes with some flat
short wave ridging in the vicinity. Fog st across eastern upper
starting to shrink though may take awhile around the upper portions
of the st. Mary's river.

12z apx sounding shows a little diurnal CU potential to start though
may see dew points mix down into the upper 50s across interior
northern lower. So expecting a dry afternoon across northern
michigan... Cold front moving into the upper midwest this morning
expected to reach western upper michigan northwest wisconsin by late
afternoon. Will be watching this boundary for convective
development that may impact the forecast area tonight. Mixing apx
sounding to 800mb yields an afternoon high of 79f... So upper 70s-mid
80s look to be a good bet.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 313 am edt Sun aug 20 2017
high impact weather potential: a chance of thunderstorms overnight
tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a ridge of sfc high pressure extended across the western great lakes
early this morning, ahead of shallow mid level ridging. Weak waa
aloft has started aloft, but a relatively drier air mass and no
other forcing aloft has resulted in mostly clear skies. The only
clouds around were associated with last evening's pocket of light
rain that crossed NRN lower, as well as the fog and bit of stratus
across portions of eastern upper. Upstream, a shortwave trough and
associated cold front were encroaching on the mississippi valley.

Not a whole lot of showers and storms ongoing there right now due to
a general lack of moisture, however there was a pocket of activity
in NE western ia where the low level jet was relatively strong.

Also, some scattered showers were across sd. Both areas were
underneath 7c km mid level lapse rates and in the vicinity of some
upper divergence.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will broaden out as it shoves
the mid level ridge east of the region. The air mass through the day
will remain on the dry side, and only few to scattered cumulus is
anticipated away from lake michigan where SW winds will be starting
to increase. Thus, mostly sunny skies are expected, with highs
reaching the upper 70s and lower half of the 80s. Moisture is never
really able to efficiently advance northward ahead of the front,
even through the night as the fast wave shoves the NRN end of the
front quickly, laying it out across far NRN lake michigan and
eastern upper overnight. We will have steepening mid level lapse
rates to 6.5c km with some semblance of better waa LLJ and weaker
upper divergence, but not as good as what is currently upstream.

This combined with the front and mucapes of 500-1000j kg ought to
bring at least the chance for showers and storms. Increased winds
just above the sfc will keep temps from falling too much. Lows will
be in the low to mid 60s.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 313 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Shower storm chances to start the week...

high impact weather potential: thunderstorm chances at various times
Monday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rain possible.

Pattern forecast: gradually lowering mid-upper level heights Monday
through Tuesday with several mid level shortwaves sliding along an
elongated surface frontal boundary draped across the great lakes.

This will result in unsettled weather to start the week.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: how much cloudiness for the
eclipse? Shower storm chances Monday through Tuesday.

Stalling frontal boundary will remain draped across northern lower
michigan on Monday with more clouds than not, and additional
scattered showers storms at various times. Very soupy airmass with
low level moisture pooling along and south of the boundary, pushing
surface dewpoints toward 70 degf in some areas. This high dewpoint
air, combined with high temperatures pushing into the 80s, will
promote mlcapes of nearly 2,000 j kg across much of northern lower
Monday afternoon. Forcing is rather nebulous and not terribly
impressive during the day, but the development of afternoon lake
breezes should be enough to produce scattered storms. Given the
amount of instability and with bulk shear values near 40kts, a few
organized strong-severe storms will be possible.

Eclipse viewing: still looking like more clouds than Sun across much
of the area early Monday afternoon as a frontal boundary bisects
northern lower. Model trends are pointing toward afternoon deep
layer drying over upper michigan (especially central and western
areas), where clouds will scatter out during the afternoon and allow
for better viewing. Even south of the bridge, a few glimpses of
sunshine will be possible.

Still some model differences in the strength of any surface
reflection later Monday night into Tuesday as shortwave energy
slides along the quasi-stationary boundary across central michigan.

Better forcing developing with upper level jet energy dropping into
the northern lakes coincident with surface low development along the
boundary. Plenty of deep layer moisture in place with pwats
approaching 2 inches. Everything points to a fairly widespread rain
event later Monday night into the first half of Tuesday with pockets
of locally heavy rain possible (we are in the marginal excessive
rainfall area according to wpc).

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 313 am edt Sun aug 20 2017
another deep upper level trough digs into the great lakes and
northeast states for the middle and end of the week, pushing an
abnormally cool airmass into the area. Deep layer drying and
subsidence Tuesday night behind the front, likely resulting in
mainly dry conditions but breezy and turning cooler. Secondary
trough on Wednesday brings an uptick in h8-h7 moisture over northern
areas and possibly results in a few showers. The remainder of the
week into the first part of the weekend looks quiet as a large area
of canadian high pressure slowly builds south east. Temperatures on
the cool side for august, although readings will moderate heading
into the weekend. Ideal radiational cooling conditions on several
nights will likely result in some of the typically colder locations
dipping into the 30s.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 630 am edt Sun aug 20 2017
sfc high pressure will track east of the region today, while a
cold front approaches from the NW and nears pln late in the taf
period. S SW winds will increase with the approach of the front,
with low end llws eventually being needed tonight. The atmosphere
has quite a bit of instability today, but moisture is rather
scant, with only few to scattered cumulus expected. No rainfall
until mainly after midnight when there's a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Issued at 313 am edt Sun aug 20 2017
higher pressure slides east today with a cold front laying out
across NRN michigan late tonight through later Tuesday. SW winds
increase to low end advisories over many of the nearshores later
this afternoon and tonight, before the gradient weakens
considerably. Chances for showers and storms will be associated with
this front late tonight through Tuesday. No severe weather is
expected. Then, a larger upper trough plows into the region and
shoves the cold front well south. The cold advection and stronger nw
winds will bring late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am edt Monday
for lhz347.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am edt Monday
for lmz341-342.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt Monday
for lmz344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am edt Monday
for lsz321.

Update... Jpb
near term... Smd
short term... Jk
long term... Jk
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 14 mi28 min E 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 68°F1 ft1017.5 hPa69°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi38 min S 1.9 G 6 76°F 1016.6 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi48 min SW 7 G 9.9 73°F 1014.9 hPa57°F
45020 42 mi28 min S 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 70°F63°F
WSLM4 44 mi48 min S 9.9 67°F 65°F1015.8 hPa66°F
45175 44 mi18 min W 12 G 14 70°F 66°F3 ft1016 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi24 minSSW 510.00 miFair75°F64°F70%1017.3 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi22 minW 310.00 miFair73°F64°F74%1016.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi24 minSW 310.00 miFair74°F63°F69%1016.6 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi25 minWSW 610.00 miFair73°F61°F66%1017 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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SW6SW5SW9SW11CalmCalmSE3S3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW6
1 day agoW13W12
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2 days agoSE6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.