Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM   Moonset 2:23 PM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1022 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Overnight - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 040220 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1020 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and mild weather through Saturday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night.

- Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE
Issued at 1015 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Still expecting low clouds and fog to expand across northeast lower and parts of eastern upper Michigan tonight. Don't think the fog will become too widespread or dense, but do expect some areas of reduced visibilities during the early morning hours.
Mostly clear skies expected elsewhere. Lows by morning will range from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will lift across Ontario today as the parent mid/upper-level low pivots toward Hudson Bay tonight. The associated surface cyclone will also trek across Ontario and over Hudson Bay by late tonight/early Saturday morning. A cold front extending southeast of the system center will keep pushing east of the area this afternoon and evening, leaving relatively high pressure in place through Saturday.

Forecast Details:

Quiet and mild weather through Saturday -- Remaining showers will end this afternoon as the aforementioned front continues to slide out of northern Michigan, leaving sunny skies in place for the remainder of the day. Clear/sunny skies will stay in place through Saturday morning, promoting efficient radiational cooling overnight to drop temperatures well into the 40s -- and even upper 30s across typical interior cold spots. Southerly flow will strengthen through the morning, bringing warm/moist air northward to help temperatures climb back into the low to mid 70s for areas of northern lower Michigan away from the lakeshores. Cooler temperatures in the 60s are anticipated across the eastern U.P. and those close to the lakes.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Longwave troughing currently spanned across North America with embedded height disturbances keep weather mild and active at times for the entirety of the long term forecast period.
Midlevel low pressure with attached troughing currently over the central CONUS/Canadian boarder and over the Alaskan Bay will be the main two sources of energy for the Great Lakes region this weekend and next week.

The first trough over the central CONUS will progress towards the southern shore of Hudson Bay and pushing a shortwave trough through the Great Lakes region by Saturday evening. A cold front will proceed to deliver convective driven showers with the chance of a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Attention switches focus on Tuesday when the second trough makes it way to the Northern Rockies and stalls over the region for the remainder of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Showers and a few thunderstorms expected Saturday night: A weak cold front will deliver a line of showers to the CWA Saturday night with the chance of a few rumbles of thunder remaining possible. Weak convection tied to the line will have no severe threat associated with the system, but areas across northern Michigan can expect a soaking of rain as QPF amounts remain around a general tenth or two. Higher amounts of liquid remain possible as more convective showers could produce some higher totals but no overall impactful weather is expected.

Wetter pattern expected next week beginning on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms: Sunday and Monday remain dry as midlevel shortwave ridging pushes quiet weather into the Great Lakes region. Low dew points do raise concern for potential fire weather conditions, especially this Monday, but weaker winds keep the conditions questionable ahead of aformentioned midlevel low pressure returning showers and storms this Tuesday. Current guidance is depicting favorable conditions of strong thunderstorms as dewpoints push themselves into the upper 50s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of cold front. To early to determine severity of this line, but will continue to monitor this feature with later model runs.

Midlevel low pressure/troughing will stall over the northern plains the remainder of the forecast period, continuing lingering showers at times across the Great Lakes region for the rest of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Increasing potential for MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and fog/mist to impact KAPN (and perhaps KCIU) later tonight/early Saturday morning. Any low clouds/fog/mist should burn off quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected, with just some increasing high and mid level clouds during the day Saturday. No significant wind concerns through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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