Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:21 AM   Moonset 9:19 AM

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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1049 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Rest of the night - E wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Patchy fog. A chance of rain showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft toward daybreak. Monday - SE wind 10 to 20 kts veering S in the afternoon. Gusts to around 25 kts. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Monday night - SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - SW wind 5 to 10 kts backing S in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 290354 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1054 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and moderate to heavy rain are expected tonight into Monday morning, which could result in isolated flash flooding in urban and low lying areas. Rivers will be on the rise through midweek, with a few of them reaching bankfull stage.

- Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected into Monday on the Bay and Lake. Patchy dense fog is possible on the waters as well.

- There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday night. Additional rain and thunderstorm chances are possible at times from late Wednesday night through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Monday

An area of showers, coincident with a mid-level shortwave, is currently making its way through northern Wisconsin this afternoon. Periods of showers will continue overnight as a surface low slowly lifts from Iowa to Minnesota with the warm front lifting from northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, providing isentropic lift across Wisconsin. There will be some modest instability north of the warm front tonight; however, this has not resulted in much in the way of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Therefore, will remove thunder mention from the forecast this evening and not include it until later tonight when a swath of better MUCAPE advects north along with the approaching warm front. Even this push of instability should only yield some elevated thunderstorms overnight; mainly across central and east- central Wisconsin. Some fog will be possible tonight as surface winds decrease with fairly high dew points across the area. In addition, some marine fog could advect in across east-central and northeast Wisconsin near the lake and bay given the fairly cold waters and warm air aloft. Temperatures tonight will remain fairly close to what they are now and budge a few degrees higher or lower depending on the location.

The aforementioned warm front will lift north on Monday morning, allowing much of northeast Wisconsin to make it into the warm sector. This will allow daytime highs to soar into the 60s across much of central, east-central, and northeast Wisconsin with mainly upper 50s across north-central Wisconsin. The warm front lifting north is expected to provide a break in the precipitation Monday morning, especially across central and east-central Wisconsin.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible later on Monday as some modest MUCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg builds across east-central and northeast Wisconsin during the afternoon and the cold front associated with the low sweeps through Wisconsin.

Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday

Precipitation...A few showers, associated with the departing surface low, will linger over far northeast WI Monday evening, before coming to an end late Monday evening. This system will be followed by surface ridging on Tuesday, leaving conditions dry across the area.
A quick-moving shortwave and surface cold front is still on track to move across the state Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Due to how quick this system is moving, the likelihood of a washout is rather low. In fact, probabilities for QPF of 0.50 inch or more by Wednesday morning are between 10-20% for central and north-central WI, and less than 10% elsewhere. Cannot rule out a few embedded thunderstorms as some models are indicating instability of a couple hundred J/kg, but not anticipating any severe weather at this time.

Continuing to monitor guidance and trends for Wednesday night through weekend, as there are still indications for a southern stream system to potentially bring heavy rainfall to the area. There are still timing and placement differences, but a general consensus has the heaviest rain occurring Thursday night through Friday.
Thunderstorms will also be possible at times with this system, but it is too difficult and early to determine when they will occur and if they will become severe.

Temperatures...Southerly flow will lift warmer air into the region for Tuesday allowing temperatures to rise above normal with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Despite the cold front moving through Tuesday night, temperatures will rebound on Wednesday and remain above normal with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
With potential for rainfall for the remainder of the extended, temperatures will return to near normal.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A low pressure system will move slowly from Southern Minnesota to Upper Michigan by Monday evening. There will be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight through midday Monday.

IFR ceilings are expected tonight through at least midday Monday, with some improvement in east central Wisconsin in the afternoon.
Visibility will fall to around one mile over much of the area overnight as a warm front lifts north. The visibility will improve Monday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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