Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:18PM Thursday November 23, 2017 8:54 AM CST (14:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 334 Am Cst Thu Nov 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Friday night...
Today..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Morning clouds, then partly Sunny.
Tonight..SW wind increasing to 15 to 25 kts by midnight. A few gale force gusts around 35 kts possible late. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft on the bay, and to 4 to 7 ft on the lake. Partly cloudy.
Friday..SW wind to 30 kts. A few gale force gusts around 35 kts in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft on the bay, and building to 7 to 11 ft on the lake. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts shifting nw during the evening. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 ft on the bay, and to 3 to 5 ft on the lake. A chance of showers in the evening.
LMZ541 Expires:201711231730;;834119 FZUS53 KGRB 230934 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 334 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-231730-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 230912
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
312 am cst Thu nov 23 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 309 am cst Thu nov 23 2017
quiet weather with warmer temperatures today. Windy and warm
Friday, then cooler (but still above normal) for the weekend.

The main westerlies across the CONUS will flatten the next couple
days, then reamplify some during the weekend. The pattern is
expected to become progressive next week, while maintaining low to
modest amplitude.

The westerly component to the upper flow will result in above
normal temperatures. A series of strong cyclones tracking across
canada will be the primary factor controlling daily temperature
changes. Readings will vary from a couple degrees above normal on
some days to as much as 12-18f degrees above normal on others.

Moisture will be limited, so precipitation amounts will be light
despite the strong cyclones. Amounts are likely to end up below
normal for the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Friday
issued at 309 am cst Thu nov 23 2017
some light snow and freezing rain produced scattered slippery
spots on area roads Wednesday evening, but the precipitation has
exited the area. Generally quiet weather is expected today and
tonight in it's wake. Cloud trends today area a bit problematic.

Satellite indicated clouds back to the north and west were a
little more prevalent than the guidance suggested. Trended toward
more lingering clouds this morning, but still decreased clouds
later today. Cirrus will be streaming across from the northwest
today, but expect much of that to be thin. Raised maxes a bit
from the previous forecast, but not quite as far as a blend of the
top performing guidance products would have suggested--due to the
additional morning clouds.

Quiet weather is expected tonight. The canadian rgl was an outlier
in generating precipitation across north-central wisconsin this
evening and was ignored. The core of the strongest WAA and the
mid-level short-wave forcing the precipitation seemed too far
north to result in any precip in the forecast area.

A strong cyclone will track east across central ontario on Friday.

Southwest winds will increase and become gusty as the warm sector
shifts through the forecast area. Models differed considerably on
the areal extent of precipitation by late in the day. The
precipitation is likely to be showery, and coverage of the showers
may also be an issue. Opted for mainly chance pops, with slight
chances in east-central wisconsin, and likely pops over the far
northwest part of the area late in the day. Warmer air should
surge in from the plains, so expect highs in the upper 40s to
middle 50s despite increasing clouds and the arrival of the
precipitation. Edged temps toward a blend of top performing
guidance products, which was warmer than the standard broad-based
forecast grid initialization blend.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
issued at 309 am cst Thu nov 23 2017
focus of the forecast remains on the impacts from a cold front
passing across the region on Friday night, followed by a potential
system for early next week. Have a slight preference for the ecmwf
based on comparisons to the ensemble means.

Friday night through Saturday night... A strong cold front will be
exiting eastern wi on Friday evening, and could see a few showers
linger over the fox valley and lake shore through mid-evening. Cold
advection will gradually ramp up late in the evening and overnight
behind the front, though wind trajectories never really veer enough
for a favorable lake effect component off lake superior. Still
though, could see a few snow showers move across northern wi late
Friday night into Saturday. Larger impacts probably revolve around
the gusty winds that are expected to develop as low level lapse
rates steep in the cold advection. Some gusts to 30 mph appear
possible late Fri evening into Saturday morning. Though could see
some Sun on Saturday morning over central and east-central wi,
northwest winds will be pushing a low stratus deck southeast across
the region, which should result in mostly cloudy skies for much of
the day. High pressure will build in for Saturday night, but will
probably not see clearing until late in the night.

Rest of the forecast... High pressure will then move across the
region on Sunday. With only cirrus overhead, should see some
filtered sunshine. Warmer temperatures are expected on Monday as
winds shift to the southwest ahead of a sagging cold front. Because
of the residual dry airmass in place across the region, precip is
not expected. Plenty of uncertainty thereafter in regards to
location of frontal boundaries. Models have backed off solutions
that bring a surface low through the region Tue and wed.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 309 am cst Thu nov 23 2017
patchy MVFR ceilings may linger early today, otherwise anticipate
vfr conditions through tonight. The main aviation concern will be
llws developing southeast across the area tonight as winds above
the surface increase from the southwest.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi54 min W 5.1 G 11 33°F 1013.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi55 min SSW 6 G 8.9 30°F 1013.8 hPa (-0.6)21°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi75 min W 9.9 G 16 33°F 1013.2 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 34 mi65 min WSW 14 G 18 34°F 47°F4 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI32 mi59 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast31°F23°F72%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmW4SW5W8W9
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SW6SW4S10S7SW7SW6S6S7SW8SW11SW12SW10SW7SW7S5S5SW5SW7
1 day agoNW19
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2 days agoS5S7S5S10S11S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.