Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:11PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:09 AM CDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:55AMMoonset 3:21PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 423 Am Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm cdt this afternoon through late Saturday night...
Today..Variable wind 5 to 10 kts becoming northeast this morning...then increasing to 15 to 25 kts by mid-afternoon. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft. Periods of rain.
Tonight..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft on the bay and to 4 to 6 ft on the lake. Periods of light rain.
Saturday..NE wind to 30 kts with a few gale force gusts around 35 kts. Waves 3 to 5 ft on the bay...and 4 to 7 ft on the lake. A chance of rain north of sturgeon bay...with rain likely to the south.
Saturday night..NE wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Periods of light rain. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ541 Expires:201703241630;;996640 FZUS53 KGRB 240923 NSHGRB NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 423 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ521-522-541>543-241630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 240910
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
410 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 408 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
occasional light freezing rain and drizzle across the north early
today, with a more persistent band of heavier rain from central
through northeast wisconsin today and tonight.

Split flow now in place across north america, with the mean
trough position in the southern stream over the southwestern
united states. As a result, the southern stream systems that
manage to track far enough north to affect the area will be slow
moving and weakening by the time they arrive. One such system will
affect the area the next several days, with another probably
passing to our south early next week. A third system could affect
the area late next week.

The air mass across the area the next few days will be seasonable.

But widespread clouds, precipitation, and a stout northeast wind
will make it feel rather raw even though daytime highs will only
be a little below normal. Readings should warm to a little above
normal next week as the split flow keeps cold air locked up well
north of the area. Total precipitation for the period will be
primarily a result of the current system. Amounts will range from
well above normal across the southern part of the forecast area to
closer to normal across the north.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Saturday
issued at 408 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
lots of forecast details to sort through this morning. Plan to
keep the advisory for the north through to expiration.

Temperatures were hovering near freezing. Precipitation has mainly
been sporadic and light, but temperartures will be favorable for
light icing to continue for several more hours.

The next issue is a substantial band of rain expected to develop
from central through northeast wisconsin, and remain in place
today. Confidence in the band developing is high (it's already
becoming apparent on radar), with the uncertainty concerning the
location of the southern and northern edges of the band. Whereever
it forms, it should sag south late today into tonight, then
probably come back north again Saturday as the main upper low
approaches from the southwest. At this point it appears the
primary precipitation area tonight will be far enough south for
mainly rain, though would not be surprised to see a mix along the
northern edge.

The final short-term concern is a frontal boundary that will sag
across the area this morning, then strengthen to our south today
and tonight as northeast winds increase. Although temperatures
will be just warm enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall
as rain, the increasing northeast winds and temperatures in the
30s will likely create conditions perceived by most as very raw
and unpleasant--especially in the east where winds will be coming
off the lake and bay.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
issued at 408 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
00z models were consistent in showing a surface low and 500 mb
low moving northeast from missouri into illinois Saturday night.

Thus, pops increase with even far north central wisconsin in at
least chance pops by late Saturday night. Precipitation type is
once again an issue due to warm air aloft and surface temperatures
falling below freezing across a good portion of the area. Based
on qpf, an advisory would be necessary over the northern part of
the forecast area due to ice from freezing rain. Will let the day
shift take a look and see what he/she thinks after evaluating the
12z version of the models.

More differences among the models show up on Sunday in their
treatment of both the mid level system and surface low. But they
all showed a large area of QPF covering most/all of wisconsin.

Any freezing rain across the north should change to rain by
mid morning as temperatures warm. Precipitation chances decrease
on Sunday night as the surface and mid level systems depart, but
chance pops remain across the north in cyclonic flow. Chances for
freezing rain return and some sleet is also possible across
northern wisconsin as temperatures drop overnight.

The 00z GFS and ECMWF developed another surface low upstream from
the first, but its track is expected to be farther to the south.

Chances for rain continue on Monday ahead of an approaching mid
level trough. Generally dry weather is expected from about Monday
night through Wednesday as a surface ridge and a rather flat mid
level ridge pass across the state.

Model differences increase later in the week so have stuck with
the blended solution that had a chance for rain or snow Thursday
night, mainly over the north.

Highs should be in the 40s Sunday and Monday, but then warm into
the middle 40s to middle 50s range once we get rid of the rain
and some of the clouds. Lows should be in the middle 20s to middle
30s most nights.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 408 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017
ceilings have held up pretty well thus far, but should settle into
the lower end MVFR and ifr range as precipitation becomes more
persistent and northeast flow strengthens.

Grb watches/warnings/advisories
Winter weather advisory until 9 am cdt this morning for wiz005-
010>013-018-019.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SYWW3 - Yacht Works Sister Bay WI 5 mi79 min Calm G 0 36°F
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi49 min Calm G 7 36°F 1012.9 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 18 mi90 min Calm G 5.1 34°F 1012.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi52 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 1011.7 hPa34°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi46 min NNW 2.9 G 12 34°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sturgeon Bay, WI32 mi14 minWNW 32.50 miFog/Mist37°F36°F96%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S13
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S9--CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3
1 day ago6NE6E4NW3NE6SE7SE4SE5E7SE6SE3SE4SE3SE4S4S5SE5S4S3S3S5S6S7S9
2 days agoNW15
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N14N12N11N13
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N16N14
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N10N16
G22
N13--N11N10N11NE10NE6NE5N8N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.