Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellison Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:31PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:09 AM CST (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 9:37AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1025 Am Cst Fri Feb 22 2019
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
This afternoon..SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kts backing e. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow after midnight.
Saturday..E wind increasing to 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Light snow likely in the morning, diminishing to light rain or drizzle mid-day.
Saturday night..NE wind 10 to 20 kts backing and increasing to nw 15 to 25 kts late. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Rain, mixing with snow late.
LMZ541 Expires:201902222315;;340027 FZUS53 KGRB 221625 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1025 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-222315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellison Bay, WI
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location: 45.21, -87.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 221210 aaa
afdgrb
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service green bay wi
610 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
updated to add short term portion for morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 606 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
a major winter storm this weekend, then colder next week.

The large scale pattern with high upper heights over the
northeast pacific and split flow downstream over noam will undergo
a transition during the period. The positive anomaly over the
pacific will shift nne into alaska and strengthen. That will cause
the negative anomaly with the downstream trough to reform in the
lake winnipeg region, resulting in a consolidation of the flow
across noam.

The large scale changes will result in a transition from the
active southwest flow regime to a much colder but more tranquil
northwest flow. Temperatures will remain AOA seasonal normals
through the weekend, then drop below normal next week. The intense
storm crossing the area this weekend will bring heavy
precipitation, resulting in above normal amounts for the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Saturday
issued at 606 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
the bulk of the work in the short-term part of the forecast was in
trying to work out the details of the wintry precipitation
expected tonight into Saturday morning. Models have not been very
consistent with the event. They were more aggressive with the
precipitation a couple days ago (especially for east-central
wisconsin), drier yesterday, and now flopped back to having more
precipitation again. They are a little colder today as well,
which would suggest mainly snow until daybreak before warmer air
aloft starts to arrive in east-central wisconsin. That should
limit the freezing precipitation potential some, as surface
temperatures will also be warming as the warm layer advances into
the region aloft. Snowfall totals alone were not sufficient to
warrant a winter weather advisory. One may be needed for freezing
precipitation, but confidence that we've got this totally figured
out yet isn't great given the changes over the past 2 days. So
will defer to the day shift to make the final call after reviewing
the 12z dataset.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
issued at 344 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
main story for this period will be strong winter storm moving
across the region Saturday night and Sunday, and then the cold
next week.

A strong low pressure system is expected to move from the central
plains Saturday afternoon into northeast wisconsin late Saturday
night, and then into canada on Sunday. The models are all in good
agreement, except the WRF in the placement of the axis of heavy
precipitation north and west of the fox valley Saturday night and
Sunday. This scenario will lead to a heavy band of snow north of a
wausau to wausaukee line where the precipitation should be mainly
in the form of snow. Snowfall totals of 8 to 14 inches are expected
with only a minor glaze possible. Just to the south, which is in
the southern part of the watch area, snowfall totals of 3 to 7 inches
are expected with ice accumulations under a quarter of an inch.

Snow fall totals of a couple inches are possible across the fox
valley with less than an inch is expected at manitowoc. Behind the
departing system, wind gusts over 40 mph are expected at times
late Saturday night and Sunday. The strong winds will create areas
of blowing and drifting snow and may cause damage to trees
resulting in sporadic power outages. The snow will gradually taper
off during the Sunday, except across the far north where lake
effect snow showers will linger through much of Sunday night.

Colder weather will work into the region Sunday night. Wind chill
readings to around 20 below zero are expected across central and
north-central wisconsin late Sunday night into Monday morning. It
will be cold on Monday with highs from 5 to 12 above zero.

Confidence is low with the next system for Monday night and
Tuesday. The GFS has been consistent with this feature, while the
00z ECMWF tonight did not have any precipitation for the first
half of next week. Stay tuned! It will be cold through next week,
with high temperatures some 5 to 15 degrees below normal. No signs
of spring into the first week of march.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 606 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
a strong low-level inversion was resulting in MVFR fog across much
of the area this morning. Suspect the visibility will edge down a
little more around daybreak, then improve. Otherwise, good flying
conditions are expected until precipitation develops tonight.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter storm watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for wiz005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-073-074.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 6 mi30 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 24°F 1030.1 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 18 mi30 min Calm G 1.9 19°F 1029.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 31 mi40 min S 2.9 G 4.1 18°F 35°F1030 hPa-4°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 34 mi30 min W 4.1 G 5.1 19°F 1029.5 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI32 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair34°F21°F59%1032.9 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W13W12SW11SW9SW7SW8SW7SW9SW7W5W6W5CalmSW3CalmW6SW3W4CalmW4W4CalmCalm
1 day agoE10
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E11SE6SE7SE10S10SW9SW19
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W16----------------W14W13
2 days agoW9W8--SW7S8S9SW6S4S4SW4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5SE7SE9E7E9
G16
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.