Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Rib Lake, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:34PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 11:19 AM CST (17:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:06PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rib Lake, WI
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location: 45.21, -90.06     debug

Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 201224 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service green bay wi
624 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
new information added to update section

Issued at 618 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
higher radar returns have surged into east-central wisconsin. There
is still an issue with dry air to overcome, as suggested by the
fact the visibility on surface observations is undergoing
substantial rapid fluctuations. But this effect should lessen with
time as saturation occurs. Will update the advisory to officially
begin immediately in east-central wisconsin, and keep the
original 15z start in the north. In a practical sense, this change
will be of limited meaning because our long-fused winter
headlines will always have "in effect" wording once we are within
3 hours of the official start time of the hazard.

Updated product suite will be out asap.

Issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
an active weather pattern with a round of snow today; the
probability of a major winter storm this weekend is increasing.

The large scale pattern will continue to be dominated by high
upper heights over the northeast pacific. The downstream flow will
be split, with the bulk of the energy composing a strong,
amplified southern stream that will encompass most of the conus.

The southern stream trough position will remain over the desert
southwest, with ridging over the southeast states.

This is a very active weather pattern for the forecast area as
energy ejecting out of the southwest u.S. Trough will interact
with a strong baroclinic zone across the area and northward surges
of gulf moisture to produce significant precipitation, resulting
in well above normal amounts for the period. The main
precipitation episodes will occur as an occluded cyclone crosses
the area today, and with a rapidly deepening cyclone expected to
cross the region during the weekend. The southwest upper flow will
result in AOA normal temperatures.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Thursday
issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
no changes to forecast headlines this morning. The previous
forecast still looked pretty much on track, with just some
adjustments made to keep it in line with the latest observational
trends (in terms of the onset of the snow) and expected snowfall
totals. The new totals are about an inch or so higher across about
the northwest 3 4 of the forecast area. That takes them right up
to the warning criteria threshold (6 inches 12 hours). Fully
expect some areas to reach that, but don't anticipate them
exceeding it by a lot. In addition, this is not going to be a very
windy storm, and with just a modest increase in snow from the
previous forecast, the best course of actions seemed to be to just
stick with the advisory. The evolution of the comma head on
satellite imagery continues to suggest the heaviest snows will
fall NW and W of the area.

Low-level dry air lingering across the area from the departing
anticyclone was slowing the northward progress of the
precipitation early this morning. Local meso plots suggest the 850
mb rh over east-central wisconsin was still around 10% at
forecast issuance time. The dry air is likely to slow the
northward progress for a few more hours, especially over the
northeast part of the area. The arrival of stronger lift and
veering low-level flow should allow for a rapid northward
expansion of the precipitation in the 12z-16z time frame. Once
saturation occurs, snow should continue for the rest of the day.

The possible exception is east-central wisconsin where hi-res
models suggest a break may occur late morning before
precipitation fills back in for the afternoon. Thermal profiles
support snow across the entire area--except where saturation may
not be deep cold enough to result in ice crystal formation.

That's most likely to occur in east-central wisconsin, though a
consensus of model forecast soundings was that conditions favoring
a loss of ice would only be marginal and periodic. Thus snow
should be the primary precipitation type.

The precipitation should taper off from south to north this
evening as the main shortwave lifts through. Light precipitation
could linger in the far north into early Thursday as a surface
trough hanging back from the departing system keeps low-level
cyclonic flow in that area, but do not anticipate much additional
accumulation with that feature.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
active pattern across the northern united states as the 500mb
pattern will feature southwest flow aloft at the beginning of
the period, then transitions to a zonal flow early next week.

Temperatures at the beginning of the period will be at or
slightly above normal into the weekend, then should be at or
below normal next week.

The main storm system this weekend should come in two pieces.

The first piece will be in the form of light snow or light
freezing rain based on bufkit soundings as models show fairly
strong 850mb warm advection across the state. The precipitation
should start out as light snow across the entire region. Bufkit
soundings indicated that the snow could change over to freezing
rain across central into east-central wisconsin where there is a
more pronounced warm layer.

There will be a lull or break in the precipitation later
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon as the 850mb warm
advection shifts east of the state and system approaches from
the southwest. Models impressive with precipitation totals over
an inch across much of the region. The low pressure system is
expected to move from eastern kansas (18z sat) to near chicago
(06z sun) and then into canada during the day Sunday. This track
is very favorable for heavy snow across northern wisconsin. As the
low tracks northeast, it will be intensifying. It appears there
will be a band of 8 to 12 inches across central into far northeast
wisconsin. Snowfall amounts will be problematic across the fox
valley and lakeshore region where precipitation starts as rain or
a wintry mix and then changes over to all snow later Saturday
evening into early Sunday morning. The change over should occur
last at manitowoc. How quick the change over occurs will determine
snowfall amounts in this region. There are still some timing
differences in the change over, although the heavy precipitation
may change it over quicker than expected. The snow will be heavy
at times, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are
possible across the entire region. Snow will linger into Sunday
morning, although may need to increase snow chances Sunday
afternoon over the next day or two. Gusty northwest winds are
also expected late Saturday night into Sunday, with gusts to near
40 mph possible across northeast and east-central wisconsin.

Tranquil conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as high
pressure controls the weather pattern. Next system approaches
from the west Tuesday night, bringing a chance of light snow.

Snow is expected on Wednesday as this system could another 3 to
6 inches to much of the area.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 347 am cst Wed feb 20 2019
flying conditions will rapidly deteriorate to ifr and periodic
lifr as snow overspreads the area this morning and continues into
the evening. Some improvement in conditions is expected overnight,
mainly as some breaks develop in the low clouds.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for wiz020-

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for wiz005-

Update... ... ... Skowronski
synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SXHW3 - Saxon Harbor, WI 96 mi39 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 20°F 1013.9 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taylor County Airport, WI15 mi24 minE 13 G 180.75 miLight Snow22°F18°F87%1008.8 hPa
Merrill, Merrill Municipal Airport, WI19 mi24 minESE 80.50 miSnow23°F20°F89%1011.2 hPa
Tomahawk Regional Airport, WI22 mi24 minE 60.50 miSnow23°F20°F87%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from MDZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3S7S7S6S3S6S5CalmSE3SE3CalmE5CalmE3E6E4E5E6E8E8E8
1 day agoNE3S4W7S4NW5W4SW5W5SW4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoNE9NE11E9NE10NE10NE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.