Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Glastonbury, MT
May 4, 2024 8:11 AM MDT (14:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM Moonset 3:33 PM |
Area Discussion for - Billings, MT
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FXUS65 KBYZ 040939 AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 339 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Sunday night...
The short term will start out pretty quiet as a shortwave ridge moves into the region bringing warm temperatures and mostly clear skies to the region. Max temperatures will be in the 60s F for most. Today will be breezy for some today as southerly winds funnel through the Bighorn Basin leading to elevated winds gusting into the 20s mph from Carbon County up to Wheatland County. This corridor has a 20-40% chance of seeing a wind gust over 30mph. Toward the evening and overnight the strong winds will shift to locations north and east of Billings. Winds will also shift from being more southerly to more easterly in the evening as we start to feel the effects of the 500mb low making its way across western CONUS. NBM shows a 40-70% chance of getting a gust over 30mph.
Sunday will see winds pick up out of the south ahead of the upper low as the shortwave ridging moves off to the east. Winds will be stronger than Saturday, especially for eastern areas as Sheridan, Fallon, and Carter Counties have 70-90% chance for wind gusts over 40mph. These strong winds will bring significant warm air advection to the region with temperatures in the 70s and 80s F.
Increased temperatures across the region to NBM 50th percentile as the NBM deterministic had temperatures below the 25th percentile in some locations. This also had the effect of lowering RH values into the high teens to low 20s for Sunday. The combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to elevated fire concerns.
This is reflected in fire indices with the hot dry windy index showing 95th percentile conditions for locations from Sheridan County up through Rosebud County where RH values are lowest. The Fosberg index is also showing values in the 50-60 range indicating fire concerns.
Sunday will see the 500mb low move closer bringing precipitation chances (30-60%) to southeast Montana. Lowered Pops across the region Sunday evening as models like the GFS are delivering a dry slot across much of the area. Saturday night into Monday morning could see precipitation chances become more widespread although it is hard to say given model uncertainty. By 12z Monday morning, ensembles are generally keeping precipitation values below 0.1 inches with the only locations having a >50% chance being west of Billings. Torgerson
Monday through Friday...
Models remain in general agreement that a strong negative tilt upper low will be pushing across Wyoming Monday to settle in a position over western North Dakota by Tuesday. While details on the exact track and strength of this weather system remain in question (EC vs GFS solutions), we remain quite confident based on cluster analysis that our region will see below normal temps, quite windy conditions at times and possibly significant precipitation. Lower elevations will see primarily rain but elevations above 6500 ft could see substantial wet snowfall.
Monday/Monday night...Model solutions have significant differences here with some dry slotting over our central zones by the GFS while the EC is quite wet for our central zones and basically most of our CWA Our precipitation forecasts reflect a strong lean toward the much wetter EC (stronger closed low) due to a more consistent message among its ensemble members. The negative tilt trough hits our eastern zones the hardest Monday, but if the EC solution is most accurate...the central could get hit hard to (think >0.25 liquid). W/NW winds will increase Monday into Monday night making for a blustery and uncomfortable time to be outdoors. High temps will be in the 50s west to lower 60s east.
Tuesday/Tuesday night...Ensembles suggest upper low will generally settle over western North Dakota. Strong W/NW winds are generated across the region mainly from the Snowies to Carter County. We are muting model output of wind speeds at this time a bit, but there is a signal from the ensembles that gusts to 50 kts are possible (40-70% probability) in this corridor Tuesday and we will monitor this for a possible High Wind event across our eastern plains. Look for bands of precipitation to affect the CWA during this time. Even worse conditions than Monday for outdoor activities.
This dynamic low is likely to continue generating strong winds and bands of precipitation Wednesday/Wed Night and into Thursday before a secondary lobe of energy swings around the cyclonic flow and sends the upper low gradually to the southeast by the end of the work week. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s at midweek before some warming returns us to the 50s and lower 60s Friday with just some lingering PoPs of 20-30%.
Impacts: While our high country may see heavy wet snow at times (30-50% chance of over a foot in the high country), the main impacts we are concerned about are the harsh combination of wind and rain for people caught outside and especially for young livestock. Make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast for your location as details emerge. BT
AVIATION
The next 24 hours will be dry with minimal cloud cover. The biggest threat to aviation will be winds that start to pick up across the region for areas west of Billings in the afternoon before the strongest winds shift to locations north and east of Billings in the evening and overnight. These winds will be southerly/southeasterly and gust to near 25kts. Most impacted airports will include K1KM and KBHK. Torgerson
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 065 039/076 046/057 043/058 042/053 041/056 041/065 0/U 02/R 66/R 34/R 57/R 77/R 43/R LVM 063 041/071 040/051 038/052 036/049 036/052 037/062 0/B 06/T 77/R 35/O 68/O 66/R 22/R HDN 067 038/081 046/059 042/059 040/052 039/057 040/066 0/U 02/R 56/R 54/R 68/R 88/R 43/R MLS 062 040/084 050/062 041/054 038/050 040/059 041/064 0/U 01/N 48/T 76/R 78/R 77/R 32/R 4BQ 064 041/083 049/061 040/057 039/049 039/056 040/062 0/U 01/N 57/T 64/R 57/R 77/T 43/R BHK 059 037/078 047/062 037/052 034/049 036/057 037/061 0/U 00/N 68/T 86/R 68/R 76/R 32/R SHR 065 036/082 042/056 037/059 036/052 035/052 036/061 0/U 01/N 66/R 55/R 57/R 78/R 54/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 339 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024
DISCUSSION
Today through Sunday night...
The short term will start out pretty quiet as a shortwave ridge moves into the region bringing warm temperatures and mostly clear skies to the region. Max temperatures will be in the 60s F for most. Today will be breezy for some today as southerly winds funnel through the Bighorn Basin leading to elevated winds gusting into the 20s mph from Carbon County up to Wheatland County. This corridor has a 20-40% chance of seeing a wind gust over 30mph. Toward the evening and overnight the strong winds will shift to locations north and east of Billings. Winds will also shift from being more southerly to more easterly in the evening as we start to feel the effects of the 500mb low making its way across western CONUS. NBM shows a 40-70% chance of getting a gust over 30mph.
Sunday will see winds pick up out of the south ahead of the upper low as the shortwave ridging moves off to the east. Winds will be stronger than Saturday, especially for eastern areas as Sheridan, Fallon, and Carter Counties have 70-90% chance for wind gusts over 40mph. These strong winds will bring significant warm air advection to the region with temperatures in the 70s and 80s F.
Increased temperatures across the region to NBM 50th percentile as the NBM deterministic had temperatures below the 25th percentile in some locations. This also had the effect of lowering RH values into the high teens to low 20s for Sunday. The combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to elevated fire concerns.
This is reflected in fire indices with the hot dry windy index showing 95th percentile conditions for locations from Sheridan County up through Rosebud County where RH values are lowest. The Fosberg index is also showing values in the 50-60 range indicating fire concerns.
Sunday will see the 500mb low move closer bringing precipitation chances (30-60%) to southeast Montana. Lowered Pops across the region Sunday evening as models like the GFS are delivering a dry slot across much of the area. Saturday night into Monday morning could see precipitation chances become more widespread although it is hard to say given model uncertainty. By 12z Monday morning, ensembles are generally keeping precipitation values below 0.1 inches with the only locations having a >50% chance being west of Billings. Torgerson
Monday through Friday...
Models remain in general agreement that a strong negative tilt upper low will be pushing across Wyoming Monday to settle in a position over western North Dakota by Tuesday. While details on the exact track and strength of this weather system remain in question (EC vs GFS solutions), we remain quite confident based on cluster analysis that our region will see below normal temps, quite windy conditions at times and possibly significant precipitation. Lower elevations will see primarily rain but elevations above 6500 ft could see substantial wet snowfall.
Monday/Monday night...Model solutions have significant differences here with some dry slotting over our central zones by the GFS while the EC is quite wet for our central zones and basically most of our CWA Our precipitation forecasts reflect a strong lean toward the much wetter EC (stronger closed low) due to a more consistent message among its ensemble members. The negative tilt trough hits our eastern zones the hardest Monday, but if the EC solution is most accurate...the central could get hit hard to (think >0.25 liquid). W/NW winds will increase Monday into Monday night making for a blustery and uncomfortable time to be outdoors. High temps will be in the 50s west to lower 60s east.
Tuesday/Tuesday night...Ensembles suggest upper low will generally settle over western North Dakota. Strong W/NW winds are generated across the region mainly from the Snowies to Carter County. We are muting model output of wind speeds at this time a bit, but there is a signal from the ensembles that gusts to 50 kts are possible (40-70% probability) in this corridor Tuesday and we will monitor this for a possible High Wind event across our eastern plains. Look for bands of precipitation to affect the CWA during this time. Even worse conditions than Monday for outdoor activities.
This dynamic low is likely to continue generating strong winds and bands of precipitation Wednesday/Wed Night and into Thursday before a secondary lobe of energy swings around the cyclonic flow and sends the upper low gradually to the southeast by the end of the work week. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s at midweek before some warming returns us to the 50s and lower 60s Friday with just some lingering PoPs of 20-30%.
Impacts: While our high country may see heavy wet snow at times (30-50% chance of over a foot in the high country), the main impacts we are concerned about are the harsh combination of wind and rain for people caught outside and especially for young livestock. Make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast for your location as details emerge. BT
AVIATION
The next 24 hours will be dry with minimal cloud cover. The biggest threat to aviation will be winds that start to pick up across the region for areas west of Billings in the afternoon before the strongest winds shift to locations north and east of Billings in the evening and overnight. These winds will be southerly/southeasterly and gust to near 25kts. Most impacted airports will include K1KM and KBHK. Torgerson
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 065 039/076 046/057 043/058 042/053 041/056 041/065 0/U 02/R 66/R 34/R 57/R 77/R 43/R LVM 063 041/071 040/051 038/052 036/049 036/052 037/062 0/B 06/T 77/R 35/O 68/O 66/R 22/R HDN 067 038/081 046/059 042/059 040/052 039/057 040/066 0/U 02/R 56/R 54/R 68/R 88/R 43/R MLS 062 040/084 050/062 041/054 038/050 040/059 041/064 0/U 01/N 48/T 76/R 78/R 77/R 32/R 4BQ 064 041/083 049/061 040/057 039/049 039/056 040/062 0/U 01/N 57/T 64/R 57/R 77/T 43/R BHK 059 037/078 047/062 037/052 034/049 036/057 037/061 0/U 00/N 68/T 86/R 68/R 76/R 32/R SHR 065 036/082 042/056 037/059 036/052 035/052 036/061 0/U 01/N 66/R 55/R 57/R 78/R 54/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.
Airport Reports
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Billings, MT,
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