Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horton Bay, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:15AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 9:43 AM EST (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:36PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 401 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through late Wednesday night...
Today..Light winds becoming south 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly cloudy early in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201812181715;;969738 FZUS53 KAPX 180901 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 401 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-181715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horton Bay, MI
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location: 45.31, -85     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181113
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
613 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 409 am est Tue dec 18 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level troughing was over new england and just off the western
canadian coast early this morning, while mid level ridging was over
the mississippi valley. A weak positively sheared mid level trough
was moving into the plains, associated with a developing warm front
with the strongest WAA pressing across the upper mississippi valley.

Sfc high pressure was moving into NRN michigan resulting in
weakening winds. The great lakes, plains and deep south are buried
in very dry air, but here in NRN michigan, we continue to see
shallow moisture coming off lakes superior and michigan and getting
stuck under a very shallow inversion. This was continuing to result
in a thin deck of stratus clouds over much of the region.

Winds will continue to weaken into daybreak under high pressure
(less moisture flux off the lakes), and the upstream ridging moves
overhead. Fcst soundings suggest that the moisture clouds thin even
more due to subsidence warming drying aloft, with the possibility of
skies clearing out. The weak positively tilted upstream trough and
associated warm front blow through our neck of the woods for the
remainder of the day. The moisture will too limited with the front
to produce any precipitation, but winds increase out of the SW while
low level temperatures remain cold enough for shallow overlake
instability. Can foresee moisture flux increasing along with the
winds, with lake clouds blossoming for awhile, while pushing into
eastern upper. Ultimately, by late in the day and this evening, we
lose that instability due to stronger waa, to erode all that
stratus. We will transition to more of a zonal flow behind the
departing weak mid level trough. Some upstream vorticity will be
trying to advect into NRN michigan allowing for an increase in
mid upper level clouds.

Highs today climbing into the mid and upper 30s most areas, slightly
cooler eastern upper. Lows tonight in decent wind just off the sfc,
ranging from the mid 20s SE CWA (weakest winds aloft), to the upper
20s and lower 30s elsewhere.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 409 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Rain snow shower chances Thursday...

high impact weather potential... Very low.

Primary forecast concerns... Minimal.

Slowly falling heights Wednesday out ahead of a developing trough
which will move through the region Thursday into Friday. This will
lead to increasing clouds during the day on Wednesday. Moisture
associated with the trough and an approaching surface cold front
will bring chances for rain showers overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Colder air moving in behind the front may mix the
rain showers with snow showers during the day Thursday. Temperatures
will remain a few degrees above normal.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 409 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Maybe a little more active...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

An upper level trough moves across the region Thursday night into
Friday with a developing area of surface low pressure moving by well
to our east. The upper trough will lead to more chances for mainly
snow showers into Friday with little to no snow accumulation
expected. Colder air moves in over the weekend. The flow is out of
the north northwest but there is little moisture to work with so
only slight chances for light lake effect snow showers Saturday.

Another upper trough will bring better chances for snow showers
Sunday. Temperatures look to be near normal.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 609 am est Tue dec 18 2018
lake induced MVFR stratocu persists all airports except mbl which
has cleared out. Axis of warmer (and drier) low level air will
work it's way into NRN michigan this morning into early this
afternoon, gradually scouring out the MVFR cloud cover, leading to
vfr conditions. Only some increase mid and upper level cloud
expected tonight.

Winds turn more out of the south today while also increasing,
leading to llws tonight.

Marine
Issued at 409 am est Tue dec 18 2018
winds have died off to end the remaining advisories. Winds ramp
right back up again out of the sw, behind a warm front that will
blow through the region. We will still have shallow overlake
instability to mix enough of this wind down to result in new
advisories needed for today, advisories that may continue through
Wednesday and Wednesday night for lake michigan. Could see some
light rain showers Wednesday night, otherwise no precipitation.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am est
Wednesday for lhz345>347.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am est
Thursday for lhz348-349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am est
Thursday for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 5 am est
Wednesday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi63 min S 2.9 G 5.1 28°F 1023.7 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 35 mi43 min SSE 5.1 G 6 27°F 34°F1023.3 hPa (+0.0)16°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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NW19
G26
NW15
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SE4
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G9
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G16
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G15
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G18
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G19
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G16
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G18
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G20
NW15
G22
NW13
G19
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G20
NW16
G21
NW17
G25
NW19
G27
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G27
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G23
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N2
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SE11
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G9
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NW8
G11
S6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI9 mi48 minN 010.00 miOvercast27°F19°F72%1023 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi48 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast28°F20°F73%1024 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi49 minSE 310.00 miOvercast26°F18°F71%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8
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G16
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G18
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NW7NW4NW7
G14
NW4W3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS4
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3SW5SW7SW7SW7SW8SW9W6SW5W4W6W6
G14
NW10
G16
W11
G18
W9
G23
NW9NW12
G21
NW12
G16
NW11
G19
NW14
G18
NW8
G16
NW13
G22
2 days agoNE4E7E7E9E6NE7E6CalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4E6NE4E6E3E7W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.