Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 1:14 AM   Moonset 9:11 AM

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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 402 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Today - East wind 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the evening. Isolated showers early in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms through the day. Rain in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Tonight - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 290840 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 440 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/isolated thunder today into tonight.

- Light rain showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially north.

- Rain showers, perhaps some rumbles of thunder, late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to pivot east of the region today as a shortwave trough and associated jet max punch over the Great Lakes.
Surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest will also trek northeast across the far northern Great Lakes and into southern Ontario while weakening as favorable forcing becomes increasingly displaced today into tonight.

Forecast Details:

Rain/isolated thunder today into tonight -- Light isolated to scattered showers will continue across parts of northern Michigan early this morning. Ongoing rain and embedded thunder across Illinois/NW Indiana will spread northeast, working into southwest portions of the CWA around mid morning. This activity will slide across the area through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon with rainfall amounts expected to be around 0.5" for most. Localized areas could see closer to 0.75" through this afternoon. While not necessarily expected, isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible with this activity through the afternoon. Chances for rain showers will diminish through this evening and tonight. Otherwise, temperatures look to reach into the 60s for areas along and south of M-32 where a warm front looks to slide up to later today with cooler highs in the 40s and low 50s north of the boundary.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper and sfc low will drift off to the northeast into Ontario on Tuesday resulting in drier conditions. Short wave clips northern Michigan very late Tuesday into Wednesday with weak sfc boundary. A few generally light showers expected as a result. Next feature of note will begin to impact the Northwoods late week in the form of another Upper Midwest bound upper low/sfc low and its frontal features. Slightly cooler airmass will settle in this weekend in wake of this low pressure system.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Dry conditions take hold on Tuesday as sfc low departs the region with temperatures in the 50s and 60s most areas. Energy lifts to the northwest of Michigan very late Tuesday night into Wednesday with a weak sfc boundary moving through. Consequently, a few light rain showers possible, especially the farther north and west you are in N MI but nothing of consequence. Clears out by the afternoon hours on Wednesday with progged forecast soundings showing modest afternoon boundary layer mixing resulting in breezy and drying conditions.
Blended in some drier guidance to achieve lower relative humidity in the forcast as a result.

Next feature of note will be another trough and low pressure system moving into the N Plains/Upper Midwest to the west of northern Michigan. Warm and moist advection begins to move into the region on Thursday, with the first batch of precipitation arriving. First batch of precip may favor western and northern areas moreso given the latest guidance. Another shot for precip will come with the cold front on Friday. Some guidance does suggest weak CAPE values, but ensemble probs for >500j/kg of CAPE Thurs-Fri are generally non- existent (<10%). Thus, have a few rumbles of thunder in the forecast during this time but not much more than that. Temperatures will cool a little this upcoming weekend behind this system with a slight chance for a few rain showers.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Low pressure will continue to slowly lift NE into and thru Lower Michigan overnight and Monday. Deep moisture surging northward ahead of this system will continue to produce widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across all of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan thru Monday evening.
Conditions will drop to IFR as widespread showers develop overnight and Monday. Surface winds will be mainly from the E/NE at 15 to 25 kts.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>348.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322.

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