Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:57PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:48 PM EDT (01:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:48AMMoonset 3:13PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 340 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of rain and light freezing rain early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..East wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Rain. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Rain likely. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201703250345;;018691 FZUS53 KAPX 241940 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 340 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ342-250345-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 250040
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
840 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 319 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Line of precip gradually pushes south tonight into Saturday...

high impact weather potential... Chance of light mixed precip will
continue tonight into Saturday morning... Mainly across far northern
lower michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Low pressure continues to develop to the
lee of the rockies near the panhandle of oklahoma. Associated warm
front/inverted trough axis extends from this low thru kansas... Se
iowa into far southern wisconsin and southern lower michigan.

Elongated area of precip continues to fire north of the trough
axis... Streaming thru portions of northern wisconsin... Central and
eastern upper michigan and the tip of the mitt. Precip type has
varied across eastern upper michigan thru much of the day...

including freezing rain... Sleet and snow. Temps have finally warmed
above freezing across this area... But some mix of wet snow and sleet
are still being reported within this area.

All short term models show this elongated area of precip will
further narrow in width as it sags slowly southward thru our cwa
during the remainder of the afternoon and this evening. By
06z... Precip chances should be mainly confined to areas along and
south of m-32 as the southern edge of a strong area of dry high
pressure over canada pushes southward into northern michigan. This
will put our CWA within the squeeze play between building high
pressure into northern sections of our CWA and residual moisture and
lift north of the warm front across our southern cwa. A rather
narrow line of mixed precip will remain along the northern edge of
this precip shield where deeper moisture and lift meet the colder
air filtering in from the north along the edge of the canadian high.

This narrow band of mixed precip should be transient thru the
night... Slowly dropping south thru our cwa. Precip chances within
this narrow band should be rather low given the arrival of drier and
more stable air along the southern rim of the canadian high. Thus...

will opt to not issue any headlines at this time... But will
certainly keep a close eye on precip type trends thru the night. Our
far southern CWA will likely remain above freezing and precip all
liquid. Precip chances... Along with any mixed precip chances will
remain confined to our southern CWA on Saturday... With a resurgence
of deep moisture northward and thus increasing precip chances again
by Saturday night.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 319 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Unsettled through early next week...

low pressure currently centered over the oklahoma panhandle will
ever so slowly head northeast over the next few days. Meanwhile,
strong high pressure (1033 mb) currently centered over northern
manitoba will ooze southward. Northern michigan will lie along the
battle ground between these two systems. This will lead to periods
of rain, possibly even some freezing rain across eastern upper and
far northern lower michigan. The freezing rain potential is due to
low level cold air being circulated from the high to the north
(while warm air continues at mid levels). So the main forecast
concerns revolve around pops and the potential for freezing rain.

Saturday night through Monday... More of the same really with drier
and colder air continuing to press down from the north while milder
and more moist air rides up from the south. This should lead to
periods of rain through this entire period. The freezing rain
potential at night remains an extremely tough call as surface
temperatures should be marginal (bottoming out right around the
freezing mark) and models vary on the details including the timing
and placement of the moisture. Safest way to go in this scenario is
to keep the forecast general and keep our options open. As things
hopefully become a little more clear we can attempt to be more
detailed as we get closer to each forecast period. The best chance
for freezing rain will continue to be across eastern upper and
northeast lower, especially across the higher terrain. Ice
accumulations (if any) are expected to be under a tenth of an inch.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 319 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
the extended period starts out with what might be some straggling
snow Monday night/Tuesday morning, associated with wrap around
moisture behind an area of low pressure that will, by then, be
moving into new england. But overall... Tuesday will begin a drying
trend, as moisture strips out and cooler and considerably drier air
drops down from canada, and hangs over the great lakes into
Thursday. The euro and GFS then diverge in their handling of the
next weather maker, which the euro has moving from ok into the ohio
valley (and a wetter scenario)... While the GFS keeps the low south,
moving across the gulf coast states (and thus a drier solution for
us). So the chance pops from the blended guidance in the grids
seems prudent... And we'll keep an eye on this in future runs.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 837 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
large area of ifr producing light rain/low clouds/mist making slow
southward progress across the TAF sites this evening. This trend
should continue, with growing support for increasing cig heights
and improving conditions from north to south overnight into
Saturday. May not clear out completely, but trends do suggest more
MVFR and evenVFR conditions on Saturday. Low clouds and more
rain return from south to north heading into later Saturday and
especially Saturday night.

Marine
Issued at 319 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight... But will
begin to increase on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the
pressure gradient tightens along the northern periphery of
developing low pressure to our sw. Precip chances will be mainly
confined to the straits southward thru lakes michigan and huron
tonight into Saturday... With the possibility of some mixed precip as
well. Better chances of precip will develop Saturday night into
Sunday as the low approaches the great lakes.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mlr
short term... Ajs
long term... Kab
aviation... Msb
marine... Mlr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi69 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 33°F 1021 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi49 min 35°F 1021.3 hPa (+2.8)33°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi49 min N 5.1 G 6 34°F 1020.7 hPa (+2.8)31°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi54 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast34°F33°F100%1021.7 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi54 minNNE 57.00 miOvercast34°F33°F98%1020.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi53 minNNE 510.00 miUnknown Precip35°F33°F94%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5E6SE8SE4SE3
G33
E6SE4SE4SE4SE3CalmE4CalmW4W5N5N5N6N7N6N6N7N4NE6
1 day agoCalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE3E4SE4E5CalmSE5SE5S7S8S7S5S8S5S8SE7SE5SE5SE7SE4
2 days agoNW16
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NE6NE8E5NE7NW3N6NW7N7NW6NW6W4W5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.