Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 9:22PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:09AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1013 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Overnight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the morning. Isolated showers through the night. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Isolated showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201705301015;;426802 FZUS53 KAPX 300213 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1013 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ342-301015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 300318
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1118 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Update
Issued at 1112 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
another mid level shortwave sliding across the northern lakes
overnight will set off isolated to scattered showers - especially
from the tip of the mitt into eastern upper. Still some modest
instability upstream extending toward northwest lower michigan.

Will not carry thunder overnight but it is certainly not out of
the question for an isolated rumble over northwest lower.

Winds have diminshed and will remain fairly light overnight. Low
temperatures generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Update issued at 704 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
diurnal shower thunderstorm activity quickly dissipating this
evening with lowering Sun angle. Scattered showers may continue
overnight over eastern upper, tied more closely with deeper
moisture and upper forcing, with just isolated activity further
south. Winds will be on the decrease with sunset.

Lows tonight generally in the upper 40s to around 50.

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 354 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Scattered showers again on Tuesday...

high impact weather potential... Minimal. Chance for a few
thunderstorms through early this evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Deep closed low continues to spin over
northern lake superior with cyclonic flow entrenched over the upper
great lakes region. Somewhat of a wrapped-up dry slot stretches from
the lower ohio valley to lake huron and back to the center of the
low, as evident on visible and water vapor satellite imagery. Deeper
moisture is located off to our west, as evidenced by grb and mpx 12z
soundings and more extensive cloud cover over wisconsin and
minnesota. A couple lobes of vorticity rotating across northern
michigan have interacted with ample low level instability (courtesy
of strong low level lapse rates up to 9.5 c km near saginaw bay) to
generate isolated to scattered showers and storms at times. Some
better 0-6km wind shear of 40-50 knots allowed for a few better
organized cells around alpena earlier this afternoon. As daytime
heating wanes towards early evening, expect these diurnally driven
showers to largely dissipate across most of northern lower, with
shower chances overnight focusing more over eastern upper and the
tip of the mitt. Due to the strong low level lapse rates and
resultant boundary layer mixing, southwest winds have been gusty
this afternoon south of m-72. The gustiness will also diminish
towards sunset.

Fairly quiet night ahead. Cloud cover expected to gradually increase
tonight as the upper low slowly wobbles farther northeast and drags
some of the deeper moisture over wi mn into northern mi. However, it
may take some time for the cloud cover to thicken up congeal if the
loss of daytime heating results in some erosion of the daytime cu
field. Regardless, clouds will be more extensive across eastern
upper and northwest lower than down towards saginaw bay. Ongoing
cold air advection will cause temperatures to drop into the mid 40s
to low 50s across the area by Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday, expect more diurnally-driven scattered showers once
again as the upper low drifts towards james bay. Chances will be
highest across eastern upper, with only slight chances for northern
lower. Cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints due to ongoing caa
will result in even less daytime instability, so not anticipating
thunderstorms. It will again be breezy with SW winds gusting to
around 25 mph over northern lower in the afternoon. Highs will range
from the 50s over eastern upper to upper 60s near saginaw bay.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 354 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Cooler and less active...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: by Tuesday night, vertically stacked low pressure
centered near james bay that has plagued northern michigan with
occasionally unsettled weather over the second half of the holiday
weekend will slowly shift northward through the midweek timeframe.

Low pressure re-energizes and drops southward across the northern
great lakes late this week into next weekend... Potentially bringing
another round of unsettled weather. Sandwiched in between the two
periods of unsettled weather will be an expansive area of high
pressure expected to drop from southwest canada into the northern
plains before gradually expanding eastward Wednesday-Thursday,
ultimately driving our sensible weather (or lack thereof) during the
midweek time frame.

Primary forecast challenges concerns: main concerns revolve around
lingering pops Tuesday night into early Wednesday along with
temperature trends throughout the period.

Broad troughing overhead continues Tuesday night with aforementioned
low pressure spinning across central canada. With an absence of true
forcing, any lingering showers Tuesday evening should gradually
diminish beyond sunset with a loss of diurnal processes. Despite
mostly cloudy skies overnight, weak cold air advection is expected
to aid in temperatures falling to the low-mid 40s for overnight lows.

The bulk of Wednesday is expected to be dry, although one last
disturbance pinwheels around the parent low. This is expected to
provide just enough support when combined with renewed diurnal
components to produce a few isolated showers across the area. Any
precip should be far from widespread with the majority of northern
michigan remaining dry, thus only supporting low end slight chance
pops. High temps several degrees below normal... Ranging from the
mid-upper 50s north of the bridge to the low-mid 60s south.

High pressure begins to expand from the west Wednesday evening
bringing any lingering shower threat to an end. Little of concern on
Thursday, except for another slight chance of showers across eastern
upper, with the rest of the area expected to feature partly to
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures climbing back to near-
normal.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 354 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
long range models are varying greatly, lowering confidence through
this forecast period. The forecast period will begin with some
showers and possibly even a thunderstorm over northern lower
Thursday night through Friday afternoon with a weak area of low
pressure overhead along with an upper level wave and ample moisture.

Too many uncertainties past this point, but believe it's safe to say
there will be periods of mostly cloudy to cloudy skies throughout
the period with best chances of rain being Sunday as models have
either a surface low over southern lower michigan or troughs
associated with a low pressure system over the new england area
stretching over northern michigan. Highs will generally be in the
mid to upper 60s, while lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 704 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
generallyVFR conditions through the period. There potentially
could be a period of higher end MVFR CIGS at pln later tonight
into Tuesday morning. Cold air aloft associated with an upper
level trough will continue to produce mainly diurnal showers
through the day on Tuesday. Isolated showers this evening will
dissipate with sunset, with scattered showers re-developing
during the day on Tuesday with broken CIGS between 3-5k. Gusty
southwest winds this evening will dissipate with sunset. Winds
will be gusty once again during the day on Tuesday from the west-
southwest, although not as strong as Monday.

Marine
Issued at 424 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
today's gusty winds are expected to diminish this evening over
the nearshore waters, so have trimmed back the SCA expiration for
lakes michigan and huron to 8 pm this evening.

Low pressure just north of lake superior will continue to result
in gusty winds at times through Tuesday, mainly during the
daytime hours. Gusts may marginally reach small craft advisory
criteria on lake michigan Tuesday afternoon. Showers and storms
late this afternoon will diminish through evening. Scattered
showers are possible again on Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jrk
near term... Mek
short term... Mjg
long term... Tjl
aviation... Jrk
marine... Mek


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 11 mi23 min W 9.7 G 12 52°F 45°F2 ft1008.5 hPa47°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi63 min WSW 19 G 22 57°F 1007.8 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi43 min SSW 12 50°F 47°F1006.6 hPa (+0.2)46°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi43 min SSW 8.9 G 11 54°F 1005.9 hPa (-0.0)42°F
45175 44 mi13 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 52°F 49°F1 ft1007 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi48 minSW 810.00 miOvercast58°F46°F66%1008.1 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi49 minW 310.00 miFair54°F47°F80%1007.1 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi48 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F46°F66%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S3SE3S7SW6S7SW9S7SW8
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1 day agoSE3CalmSE3CalmW3CalmE3SE5SE4E3W13N3W9SW6W3CalmE5E5W4SW5W6CalmCalmSW6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5E5NW4NW7NW6NW7W10NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.