Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 6:44PM Friday October 19, 2018 9:48 AM EDT (13:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 1:28AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 350 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Numerous showers in the morning. Periods of showers in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201810191600;;406659 FZUS53 KAPX 190750 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 350 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-191600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191046
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
646 am edt Fri oct 19 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 304 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
high impact weather potential: maybe a rumble of thunder this
evening?
pattern synopsis and forecast:
minor shortwave ridging was over the great lakes early this morning,
with a positively tilted shortwave trough and associated sfc low
pressure and cold front pressing through south central canada and
the plains. There were some areas of showers and even a few rumbles
of thunder out ahead of these features, within increasing theta-e
advection, dpva and potential upper divergence from a 90kt jet. The
thunder was only in mn, just north of minneapolis, aligned along a
mid level instability gradient.

The mid level trough and cold front will quickly race into through
nrn michigan today and this evening, bringing an expanding area of
showers due to strengthening forcing and theta-e advection ahead of
the cold front. The instability gradient also makes it's way into
nrn michigan and may provide a rumble of thunder or two. The
strengthening forcing is expected to be attributed to increasing
upper divergence with the upper jet, as well as stronger dpva from
reinforcing shortwave activity dropping in from SRN canada. There
may be a brief lull in the precipitation, before even stronger
shortwave energy dives into the western great lakes overnight. This
will bring in a secondary cold front, with h8 temperatures dropping
to -4c to -8c by daybreak for a more than sufficient delta t range
of 17c to 18c for the development of lake effect rain showers.

Freezing levels look to be 2kft or slightly higher, but the large
overlake instability and potential relatively drier air below that,
may be able to result in snow mixing in at times for inland areas.

This would not surprise me at all. Little to no accumulation through
tonight however.

High temperatures today will be in the middle 50s most areas, with
lows tonight falling back into the mid and upper 30s.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 304 am edt Fri oct 19 2018

Colder; some snow showers Saturday...

high impact weather potential... Accumulating snow possible
late Saturday and Saturday evening in some areas.

Strong cold air advection through the day Saturday as a trough digs
into the region leading to brisk winds. In addition, a decent short
wave dives into the developing trough. With the colder air, there
will be increasing over lake instability with the flow veering from
northwest in the morning to north northwest by evening. So expect
scattered to numerous rain showers to change over to snow showers
fairly quickly. Could see some accumulation on the order of around
an inch or perhaps two in north northwest flow favored areas in the
afternoon and evening. Roadways may become slick as a result. Drier
air (mean 700-850 mb <40%) will move in late Saturday night which
should diminish activity. Surface and upper level ridging in control
Sunday leading to sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures falling
into and through the 30s Saturday. Lows Saturday night in the upper
20s and lower 30s. Highs Sunday in the lower and middle 40s.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 304 am edt Fri oct 19 2018

Remaining a little chilly...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Northern michigan looks like it will lie on the southern periphery
of a trough centered off to our northeast with high pressure and
ridging to the west. This setup should continue to lead to cooler
than normal temperatures through the extended forecast.

Precipitation chances will be on the low side with only a small
threat of a short wave or two moving by to our north bringing a
little light precipitation.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
gusty SW winds have continued overnight, as deepening low
pressure was crossing ontario. This low pressure will continue to
deepen into Saturday as it works through quebec, while two
separate cold fronts plow through the great lakes today and
tonight, shifting winds wnw nw. This will increase the overlake
instability, and keep the pressure gradient tight enough for gusty
conditions. After a swath of rain and potential MVFR cigs
accompany the initial cold front today, periods of lake effect
rain showers develop tonight. Still have some llws to contend with
into this morning before stronger winds mix down to the sfc.

Marine
Issued at 304 am edt Fri oct 19 2018
low level winds have continued to ramp up overnight, as deepening
low pressure was crossing ontario. This low pressure will continue
to deepen through Saturday morning as it works through quebec, while
two separate cold fronts will plow through the great lakes, and
increase the overlake instability. The pressure gradient will remain
tight enough into tonight for gales across many of the nearshore
waters. Higher pressure then scrapes the western great lakes and
relaxes things enough for widespread advisory speeds. After a swath
of rain presses through today, periods of lake effect rain showers
with growing chances for snow mixing in, will be common through
Saturday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until midnight edt Saturday night for
lhz346>348.

Gale warning from 11 am this morning to midnight edt tonight for
lhz345-349.

Lm... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until midnight edt Saturday night for
lsz321-322.

Near term... Smd
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi52 min SW 19 G 30 55°F 1012.2 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi49 min SSW 20 53°F 53°F1009.8 hPa (-3.5)45°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi31 min WSW 15 G 19 56°F 49°F1010.1 hPa37°F
45175 44 mi19 min NE 25 G 31 56°F 60°F1009 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi54 minSSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair53°F43°F69%1012.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi54 minWSW 11 G 1710.00 miFair52°F43°F74%1011.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi54 minS 510.00 miFair50°F42°F75%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW17
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2 days agoSW15
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G34

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.