Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlevoix, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:26PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:37 AM EDT (05:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 11:31PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 111 Am Edt Tue Jul 17 2018
Rest of the overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201807171315;;599711 FZUS53 KAPX 170511 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 111 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ342-171315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlevoix, MI
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location: 45.31, -85.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 170530
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
130 am edt Tue jul 17 2018

Update
Issued at 939 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018
initial cold front has pushed east of our CWA late this evening...

as the secondary cold front approaches from the nw. All convection
resulting from this front is long gone... And skies have cleared
across our entire CWA as much drier and more stable air settles
into the region. Commencement of low level CAA has allow temps to
fall into the 60s across upper michigan... But temps are still
holding in the 70s across northern lower michigan. Continued caa
overnight will drop temps into the 50s for overnight lows..With
noticeably less humid air as well.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 313 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018

Clearing and cooling down tonight...

high impact weather potential... Scattered thunderstorms will
continue across portions of northeast lower through early evening.

Marginal risk for a severe storm yet.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A cold front continues to progress
through northeast lower michigan this afternoon, triggering
scattered convection across our eastern counties as it interacts
with a muggy, unstable airmass. Dewpoints along and ahead of the
front climbed into the low 70s, but they are dropping off sharply
behind it over northwest lower. Scattered storms will continue near
lake huron through late afternoon until the front exits the area.

Already have had one storm produce quarter size hail over southeast
alcona county. By and large, though, activity is waning as the
front pushes farther east.

The rest of tonight will feature clearing skies as cold drier air
advection really gets going behind a secondary cold front progged to
drop southward from lake superior. As previous shift mentioned,
there are signals for perhaps some sneaky cloud cover creeping into
eastern upper late tonight, associated with a digging trough
presently moving over lake superior.

Despite the robust cold air advection and 925mb winds up to around
20 knots, breezy conditions this afternoon will subside this evening
once the boundary layer decouples. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the low to mid 50s over eastern upper and interior northern
lower, with upper 50s for coastal northern lower areas.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 313 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: northern stream flow in the process of
becoming a bit more amplified... Made that way by strong shortwave
trough rotating across ontario. Additional lower amplitude waves
rotating on the backside of the primary wave will help carve out a
transient long wave trough across the great lakes for the next few
days. Attendant deep layer northwest flow pattern will bring in a
noticeably drier and cooler airmass. As mentioned, troughing is a
transient one, with ridging building back overhead Thursday, with
moderating temperatures the result.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: nothing significant for sure,
with primary focus on cloud and temperature trends.

Details: while troughing dominates aloft Tuesday and Wednesday,
expansive area of high pressure will rule the lower levels. Combine
that with moisture-starved northwest flow aloft, and dry weather is
expected. Would expect at least some shallow CU development Tuesday
with steep surface rooted lapse rates and some lingering moisture
within shallow convective boundary layer. Shouldn't be enough to
block out too much sunshine. Mostly clear sunny skies expected to
continue Tuesday night through Wednesday. Big changes with regards
to temperatures, especially on Tuesday when cold air advection is
maximized. Expect highs ranging through the 70s Tuesday, warmest on
the south side of the sunrise side where downslope flow is
maximized. May even see portions of northwest lower and eastern
upper michigan struggle to reach 70 degrees, especially if CU are a
bit more robust than currently advertised. This sets the stage for a
chilly Tuesday night, with widespread interior lows in the mid and
upper 40s. Given overhead high pressure light winds, wouldn't be
terribly surprised to see some of our typical ice box locations
several degrees cooler. Simple airmass modification under those
sunny skies Wednesday will help temperature recovery nicely,
reaching about near normal readings during the afternoon.

Troughing exits quickly stage right Wednesday night, replaced by
sharp shortwave ridging Thursday. Dry and sunny conditions to
continue, with continued airmass modification and development of
light southerly flow on backside of retreating surface high once
again bringing above normal warmth to the northwoods, with afternoon
temperatures topping 80 degrees for most.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 313 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Biggest story centers on the potential for some inclement weather
Friday on into the weekend. Impetus for this rain potential centers
on slow moving shortwave trough expected to dive across the northern
plains into the great lakes, itself spurred along by extended upper
jet slicing through the intermountain west. Now, with that said,
dprog dts of nearly all deterministic and ensemble guidance is for a
more open and steadily moving wave (unlike the very slow moving cut-
off feature guidance had advertised the past few days). No doubt
rain potential will increase as this system approaches, but starting
to feel our forecast may be a bit to wet-looking given these recent
trends and simple pattern recognition. Uncertainty argues against
making too many changes, with plenty of time to hone in on more
spatial and temporal detail in the coming days.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 120 am edt Tue jul 17 2018
high pressure in SRN canada will track SE and center itself over
nrn michigan late tonight. NW winds behind yesterday's cold
frontal passage will be just a little gusty today, before going
light near calm overnight. Skies will be mostly clear over the taf
period, but the cold advection may produce some scattered lake
clouds, which will turn into some shallowVFR cumulus today.

Marine
Issued at 313 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018
a cold front triggering scattered thunderstorms over a portion of
northern central lake huron will eventually exit the region by early
this evening. Until then, some stronger storms will remain possible
there with gusty winds the primary threat. Winds will be wnw nw
behind the front and will remain a tad gusty tonight as cold air
advection results in some shallow overlake instability, but the
strongest gusts should cease this evening as a surface temperature
inversion develops. Breezy NW winds will again develop on Tuesday as
the pressure gradient overhead strengthens. Gusts may reach low end
advisory criteria in some areas, but there is still too much
uncertainty to issue one at this time.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 2 am edt
Wednesday for lhz346.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for lhz347-348.

Lm... None.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 2 am edt
Wednesday for lsz321-322.

Update... Mr
near term... Mk
short term... mb
long term... mb
aviation... Smd
marine... Mk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 11 mi18 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 70°F2 ft1014.9 hPa53°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi42 min N 7 G 11 69°F 1014.6 hPa
WSLM4 37 mi38 min NW 12 67°F 65°F1013.3 hPa (+1.2)50°F
45183 38 mi38 min N 5.8 G 9.7 71°F 72°F1015.3 hPa (+1.6)
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 43 mi38 min NNW 7 G 9.9 68°F 1012.6 hPa (+0.9)42°F
45175 44 mi18 min NW 7.8 G 14 67°F 69°F1 ft1014 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI1 mi43 minN 510.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F53°F59%1014.9 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI20 mi43 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F49°F59%1013.9 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI22 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F54°F70%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4CalmSW5SE3W4W5W6NW7NW7NW7W11W13W11SW11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3E4NW5NW5W9W7W8W5NW4NW5W5W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW5N4NW6NW5NW9W7W8W7W7W6SW4W7CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.