Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:11AMSunset 5:25PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:10 PM EST (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 8:05PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ348 1039 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.line of showers approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Presque isle light to sturgeon pt mi including Thunder bay national marine sanctuary... Sturgeon pt to alabaster mi... At 1039 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a line of showers...capable of producing winds up to 33 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from 17 nm west of greenbush to white stone point... Moving northeast at 55 knots. Locations impacted include... Tawas bay...black river...east tawas...greenbush...thunder bay... Sturgeon point...au sable point...harrisville...oscoda...tawas point and south point. Lat...lon 4418 8363 4430 8358 4436 8341 4473 8336 4485 8339 4486 8343 4487 8331 4494 8344 4500 8347 4501 8343 4508 8338 4503 8328 4515 8334 4522 8327 4495 8322 4493 8325 4485 8320 4474 8319 4438 8323 4418 8343
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ348 Expires:201710080330;;530735 FZUS73 KAPX 080239 MWSAPX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LHZ348-349-080330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191704
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1204 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Update
Issued at 1040 am est Fri jan 19 2018
not much of an update needed. A quiet day in store for the region
with a continual feed of weak vorticity originating from troughing
off the pacific coast, which will be plowing through the
increasingly more zonal fast flow aloft. Another shallow
shortwave trough is seen in SRN canada, which is trying to dig a
little toward lake superior. At the sfc, low pressure was
associated with the SRN canada wave, with a west to east oriented
stationary boundary that stretches north of the great lakes into
new england. 12z apx sounding reveals quite a bit of dry air below
roughly 500mb, but quite a deep depth of higher level moisture
from the pacific brought in by the feed of weak energy. This will
just result in mostly cloudy skies filtered sunshine.

From a temperature standpoint, a strong inversion due to
impressive WAA seen mainly aloft, has resulted in strong low
level stability. This will make it tough to mix any of the
stronger SW winds and warmer temperatures aloft down to the sfc.

Thus, temperatures will remain well below their potential. Add in
the higher level clouds, and am finding it difficult to raise
temps much higher than what was in the forecast. This despite
these type of events typically resulting in warmer than thought
temperatures. Some areas have been mixing a bit into the better
winds warmer temps aloft, and thus did raise readings to where
more areas will be in the lower 40s today. Will be watching for
stronger gusts and potential to go even higher.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 329 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Temperatures continue to trend upward...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: mid level heights on the rebound early
this morning as shortwave trough races off to our east and deep
troughing digs in off the pacific into the west coast. Surface
response features a weak stationary front layed out across southern
canada into lake superior, while elongated high pressure stretches
out from the ohio valley into the northern gulf. Above has resulted
in a rather mild, quiet night across the northwoods, with current
temperatures only in the 20s and lower 30s (warmer than normal highs
for this time of year). Large area of stratus slowly thinning from
southwest to northeast as warm air advection continues through the
cloud-bearing layer.

Upper level flow regime becomes quite zonal across the northern
plains into our area by later today and tonight, forcing a much
modified pacific originated airmass into the region. Passing wave
and attendant area of low pressure racing across ontario this
afternoon and evening may provide the impetus for just a bit of
light precipitation across eastern upper michigan.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: cloud temperature trends and
addressing potential for a bit of very light precipitation.

Details: warm air advection process go full tilt today, spiking h8
temperatures into the high single digits by this afternoon. This
will no doubt continue to steadily erode current stratus deck, last
across eastern upper michigan. Plenty of high clouds to our west
will definitely filter the Sun some, especially by this afternoon.

Primary forcing from that ontario wave remains well to our north,
and model derived soundings really struggle to reach full
saturation, even for areas north of the big bridge. May carry a
small chance for rain snow showers, but definitely nothing
significant. Now, on to those all important temperatures. Of course,
greatest warming will occur aloft, with strong low level inversion
capping just how much surface temperatures respond. Still,
increasing southwest winds and attendant mechanical mixing through
the shallow boundary layer easily supports highs well above
freezing. Will go full bore toward the warmer end of the guidance
spectrum as these type of warming events always seem to overachieve
a bit. Expect highs well up into the upper 30s, with at least a few
locations topping 40 degrees across northern lower michigan.

Subtle cooling aloft expected tonight as mid level heights fall just
a bit. Stationary front remains well off to our north, and expect
that's where greatest precip threat will remain. Plenty of high and
mid level clouds expected to linger overhead, and will need to watch
for additional early morning stratus development as today's snowmelt
adds a bit of water vapor to the low levels. Another well above
normal temperature night, with lows by sunrise Saturday in the upper
20s and lower 30s.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 329 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Quiet weather before a wintry mix arrives Sunday night...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Zonal flow aloft for much of the weekend
over the upper great lakes with the polar jet nudged northward into
southern ontario. This will allow for continued mild late january
conditions across northern michigan. Isentropic ascent across the
ohio valley early Sunday will gradually lift northward through the
day, spreading into northern michigan by late afternoon. Meanwhile a
developing cyclone over the southern plains on Sunday will take aim
at the upper great lakes heading into Sunday night and Monday.

Primary forecast concerns... Precipitation chances types on Sunday.

Pretty quiet weather expected through Saturday night. Forecast
soundings show a shallow saturated layer from the surface to about
0.5 km with the moisture trapped below a sharp inversion roughly
above 925 mb. Little if any omega coincident with this moist
boundary layer, so not expecting any precipitation drizzle to fall
from it. However, do expect it to result in a decent amount of low
stratus across the area (especially northern lower) with sref
ceiling probabilities offering strong support for that idea. Have
therefore increased cloud cover to mostly cloudy. Highs will take a
run at 40 degrees once again in many areas with everyone at least
climbing above freezing. Dewpoints will struggle to reach 32f,
however, so not expecting efficient melting of current snowpack.

Could be some areas of fog that develop Saturday night.

A weak front draped across northern lower on Sunday may provide
enough support for some flurries between the straits and m-32.

Isentropic lift nosing in from the south along with increasing
moisture may trigger some drizzle or perhaps light rain snow showers
south of m-72 during the afternoon. The bulk of the precipitation
associated with the advertised potential winter storm will hold off
until later Sunday night into Monday, and that is when the forecast
starts to get somewhat messy for northern michigan (see below for
more details).

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 329 am est Fri jan 19 2018
high impact weather potential... Potential for a wintry mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet Sunday night through Monday with some ice
and snow accumulation. Then accumulating lake effect snow for a
portion of eastern upper and northwest lower through midweek.

Significant differences still exist among model guidance in terms of
the track and intensity of a winter storm for the upper great lakes
later Sunday night through Monday night. Consensus was taking the
storm from SW iowa Monday morning through the straits by daybreak
Tuesday. But... (dun dun duuuun) the 19.00z run of the ECMWF now
takes the storm track farther south through the thumb, obviously a
colder solution. So specific forecast details such as precipitation
types and amounts are still far from certain. Nevertheless, there is
continued moderate confidence that much of the apx forecast area
would lie within a transition zone, seeing the potential for a
wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before warmer
temperatures Monday afternoon would support a changeover to just
rain south of the bridge. That is, unless things trend towards the
colder ECMWF solution, which would increase the potential for snow
across at least the northern portion of the forecast area. At any
rate, looking like a respectable amount of precipitation from this
system with QPF in excess of 0.5" for the bulk of the forecast area.

This could result in moderate snow accumulation for the straits
region and eastern upper. Could be somewhat windy surrounding this
system's passage as well. We will continue to closely monitor this
system over the next few days as forecast details gradually become
clearer, and you should keep tabs on the forecast for changes, too.

Beyond that, the rest of the long term forecast period looks colder
with renewed chances for lake effect snow across a portion of
eastern upper and northwest lower from Tuesday through Thursday
morning. Highs back in the 20s with lows in the teens to single
digits.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1200 pm est Fri jan 19 2018
vfr conditions through the TAF period under a continual feed of
mid and high clouds. Very stable low levels will likely limit
gusting enough from stronger SW winds aloft will likely lead to
prevailing llws through much of tonight. Also, there are
indications of increasing shallow moisture late tonight into
Saturday with the arrival of a weak cold front. Could be some MVFR
at times, but not totally sold on this idea just yet.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Update... Smd
near term... mb
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi20 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 35°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi40 min SW 4.1 G 6 33°F 1006.6 hPa25°F
TBIM4 25 mi20 min S 13 G 16 30°F
SRLM4 46 mi40 min SSW 15 31°F 32°F25°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi76 minSW 810.00 miFair31°F25°F79%1008 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi75 minSW 810.00 miFair31°F24°F76%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S4S7S6S6S7SW3SW5SW6SW5SW7SW5SW6SW5SW6SW8SW6SW7SW6SW5S6SW7SW8SW9
1 day agoSW12
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2 days agoN8N6N8NW7N7W4W3W4SW4SW4W4W3W3SW3SW4SW3SW5SW4S4S7SW6SW7SW11SW10
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.