Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 9:36PM Saturday June 24, 2017 9:53 AM EDT (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 428 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Today..North wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon, then becoming south early in the evening. Scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201706241630;;735544 FZUS53 KAPX 240828 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 428 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-241630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241051
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
651 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 404 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Sunny early but more clouds showers as day progresses...

high impact weather potential: minimal outside of ongoing hydrologic
issues.

Pattern synopsis forecast: 03z surface composite analysis shows
michigan sandwiched between a pair of fronts... A northeast-southwest
oriented cold front stretched from the lower great lakes into the
tennessee valley... A second front was draped across northern ontario
to the north of lake superior. Much drier air has spread across the
area in the wake of the downstream cold front... With dew points
Friday afternoon falling into the upper 30s 40s inland from the
great lakes. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of mid level
"weakness" spinning around the vicinity of the upper great lakes.

One short wave trough was moving through lower michigan into lake
huron... With a pair of vorticity centers over minnesota... Another
north of lake superior... And a larger upper low digging into north
dakota. Post-cold frontal drying evident in 00z apx sounding with a
deep (nearly up to 700mb) mixed layer... But colder mid level
temperatures upstream allowing from some skinny instability in
inl ypl soundings along a low level theta-e ridge axis that
stretches from northern illinois back to the northwest into the
northwest ontario southern manitoba.

Upper low dropping into north dakota is expected to spin across the
upper midwest today... Which will also push aforementioned vorticity
center over northern minnesota east as well. Upper low will make
its way into lower michigan tonight... While boundary to the north of
lake superior sags across the lake and possibly into the upper
peninsula.

Primary forecast concerns: mainly cloud and shower chances today
with cooling mid level temperatures and approaching short wave
trough and upper low. The former feature is already pushing another
mid cloud deck (and a few spotty radar returns) across wisconsin
western upper michigan and will spread into western lower michigan
later this morning. Could be a few spits of rain with this initial
cloud cover later this morning into northwest lower... But does
appear there will be an additional diurnal component to cloud cover
today... Especially across northern lower... Where some skinny
instability will help generate some showers during the afternoon. A
little less certain across eastern upper with regard to
instability... Though lake michigan huron breeze may serve as a focus
for showers probably only across mackinac county. Should also be a
risk for thunder especially south of m-32 this afternoon... With
diurnal shower coverage decreasing this evening. But with the
approaching upper low... Fairly deep layer deformation axis expected
to set up across upper michigan which is expected to focus a
continued threat for showers into tonight. Will probably also see
some additional showers with the arrival of the primary mid level
circulation and associated dynamics.

From a hydrologic standpoint... Rivers in the rifle and tobacco river
basins still running high due to recent rainfall. Rifle river near
sterling has leveled off and is running below the current forecast
so will have to evaluate ongoing warning. Tobacco river at
beaverton also appears to be cresting just below flood stage
(upstream gauge on the south branch tobacco river near beaverton
also leveling off less than a foot below record stage). Additional
rainfall today tonight may slow the recession but outside of a slow
moving cell falling over the right part of a basin... Not expecting
additional rainfall to cause a big rise in river levels.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 404 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Continued cool with showers and perhaps a few storms...

high impact weather potential... A few non-severe thunderstorms
possible Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Sunday into Monday, michigan will be in
line for a one-two punch of potent shortwaves vort maxes rotating
around a broad longwave trough entrenched over the great lakes. The
first will exit the thumb by Sunday afternoon while the second takes
a more southerly dive towards lake erie on Monday. Closer to the
surface, a weak cold front will drop south from ontario on Sunday,
followed by a weak low with somewhat of a short-lived frontal
boundary that move across northern lower Sunday night into Monday.

These features will generate showers and possibly some afternoon
thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday.

The parent longwave trough will be quite deep with 500 mb heights
falling to around 558 dam over northern michigan on Monday... About 2
to 3 standard deviations below the mean for late june. Temperatures
aloft from 925 to 700 mb will also be around 2 to 3 standard
deviations below. So, expect a progressive cool down to continue
through the start of the work week as persistent NW flow advects
cooler air into the region. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s on
Sunday and generally a couple degrees colder on Monday. Sunday
night's lows will drop into the mid upper 40s inland to around 50
near the shores.

Primary forecast concerns... Rain and thunder chances will be the
main forecast challenge. Lapse rates above 600 mb are looking a
little weaker for Sunday and Monday, and pwats will be around 0.8"
or a little less. Given general NW flow pattern, expect the better
diurnal instability will be over northeast lower, though we're only
talking several hundred j kg of MLCAPE at most. So, while
ingredients will be sufficient for scattered to perhaps numerous
showers (particularly during the daytime hours), expect any
thunderstorms that may develop to be pretty isolated, weak, and
short-lived... Especially given the absence of deep layer shear.

Northern lower will see the best forcing and hence higher pops than
eastern upper.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 404 am edt Sat jun 24 2017
high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible at times
Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

Upper trough and unseasonably cool airmass finally eject to the east
Monday night with heights rising through midweek as upstream ridge
makes quick progress towards the great lakes. Increasing subsidence
from this ridge and a surface high will lead to a period of dry
weather that will likely continue through Wednesday morning. The
remainder of the forecast period looks rather active and wet as
models track several developing lows from the central northern
plains into the great lakes, interacting with a potentially very
moist airmass. Being this far out, plenty of questions to still be
answered, but periods of showers and storms are looking increasingly
likely for northern michigan through the end of the week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 650 am edt Sat jun 24 2017
vfr conditions expected today with mid clouds increasing this
morning. Some showers this afternoon especially for apn... May see
some MVFR ceilings develop overnight.

Marine
Issued at 404 am edt Sat jun 24 2017
winds not expected to be significant this weekend as gradient
will be relatively weak. Lake breezes likely to pop along
northeast lower and southeast upper shoreline this afternoon. A
little more persistent west northwest wind expected for Sunday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Mek
long term... Mek
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi54 min NNW 7 G 11 64°F 1007.8 hPa (+0.9)52°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi44 min 64°F
TBIM4 25 mi64 min W 7 G 9.9 62°F
45162 26 mi54 min WNW 9.7 G 12 61°F 58°F1 ft
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 35 mi64 min WNW 14 G 16 56°F 54°F2 ft1006.7 hPa (+1.7)
SRLM4 46 mi84 min NW 12 56°F 57°F51°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi60 minVar 610.00 miFair64°F53°F68%1008 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi59 minWNW 610.00 miFair63°F52°F69%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3NW3NW7NW95N103W11
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NW7NW5N9N9NW7NW8CalmW3W3W33W5W566
1 day agoS7S7S8S8S7S14
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmS4CalmSW53W4W5
2 days agoW5W53NW34SE10E9E10E8E7E7E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS43SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.