Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 9:24PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:08 AM EDT (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:50PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 958 Pm Edt Wed Jul 18 2018
Overnight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:201807191000;;694018 FZUS53 KAPX 190158 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 958 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ348-191000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190353
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1153 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Update
Issued at 947 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
nothing of note this evening. Managed to get some congested CU and
wanna-be sprinkles much earlier in the evening over missaukee co,
but all CU has fizzled with loss of heating. Min temps tonight
will generally be near to slightly warmer than last night, thanks
to a somewhat warmer start to the night. No major changes are
needed.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 327 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Quiet stretch of weather...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon composite analysis reveals
sprawling high pressure centered essentially across lower
michigan, downstream from short wave ridging sliding into
wisconsin. Closed short wave noted over the dakotas, but will not
impact our area until later tomorrow night. Per visible satellite
imagery, we did manage to develop some fair weather cu, along both
northern lower mi coastlines and the marine layer, as well as
across interior eastern upper mi. However, not nearly as
extensive as Tuesday.

Primary forecast concerns: none. Heating induced CU will of course
fade this evening leaving clear skies light winds for the overnight
hours. Another cool-ish night is in store with lows ranging from
the middle 40s to lower 50s, similar to last nights lows. But
given another day of good mixing and surface dewpoints now
running lower than this time yesterday, I don't think fog will be
as much an issue compared to last night.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 327 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Rain chances increase to wrap up the week...

high impact weather potential: slight chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.

Pattern forecast: weak upper level ridge axis and attendant surface
high pressure centered atop northern michigan early Thursday morning
gradually become displaced east throughout the day ahead of a well-
defined, closed upper level wave and associated surface low pressure
dropping southeastward out of the northern plains. This system will
arrive into the western great lakes early Friday into Saturday
bringing a relatively extended period of increased rain chances to
northern michigan through at least the first half of the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: increasing precip chances
Friday through Saturday.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated Thursday as
high pressure overhead gradually drifts off to the east throughout
the day. Mostly sunny skies to start will give way to increasing
high clouds during the afternoon evening ahead of the aforementioned
area of low pressure dropping into the upper mississippi valley
during the day Thursday before slowly progressing eastward into the
great lakes Friday-Friday night. High temperatures expected to be a
few degrees above normal area wide ranging from near 80 to the mid
80s area-wide.

Southerly winds will aid to increase deep layer moisture Thursday
night... Evident by pws progged to climb to above 1.60 inches by
early Friday morning. Isentropically driven showers will become
possible as early as Friday morning, primarily west of interstate
75; however, better shower chances hold off until Friday afternoon
evening in association with more prominent forcing pinwheeling into
the area. Not overly enthusiastic with thunder chances at this
juncture, although a couple hundred j kg of MLCAPE may prove to be
enough for a few embedded rumbles of thunder. No severe weather
anticipated given anemic bulk shear values under 20 kts. High
temperatures Friday ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s area-
wide.

A similar story for Friday night into Saturday, although guidance
begins to diverge with respect to low pressure placement and
strength. Either solution will certainly continue shower chances
into at least Saturday; however, shower coverage and intensity
remain rather low confidence at this juncture. High temperatures
Saturday expected to be several degrees cooler given extensive cloud
cover... In the 70s across the forecast area.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 327 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Wrap around moisture on the backside of departing low pressure may
allow occasional showers to continue through Sunday across at least
parts of northern michigan. Otherwise, another weak boundary is set
to cross the area on Tuesday, perhaps bringing another scattered
shower storm threat, before high pressure returns toward the middle
of next week. Near-normal late july temperatures expected for much
of the extended period... Varying from the mid 70s to low 80s.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1153 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
vfr, except for some valley fog impacting mbl.

High pressure is over and just east of lower mi this evening,
providing dry air and minimal cloud cover. This high will slowly
slide eastward thru Thursday, with quiet wx resulting. mbl has
been reporting some vsby restrictions over the past hour (which
may or may not be correct) and light rain (which is absolutely not
correct). Will tempo in some ifr vsbys at mbl early this morning.

Light winds tonight, a bit of southerly breeze developing
Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 327 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
high pressure across the region tonight will make way for light
southerly return flow to develop by Thursday morning. Winds
gradually increase late Thursday night into Friday with the
potential for small craft advisories across parts of the area. An
area of low pressure approaches the region Friday into the weekend,
likely bringing occasional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Mg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi38 min W 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 1018.1 hPa56°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi28 min W 4.1 G 4.1 63°F
TBIM4 25 mi48 min S 8 G 8.9 65°F
45162 26 mi28 min S 9.7 G 12 66°F 67°F1 ft
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 35 mi78 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 64°F 62°F1017.5 hPa (+0.0)
SRLM4 46 mi98 min WSW 5.1 66°F 66°F53°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair55°F53°F93%1018.2 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi73 minSSE 310.00 miFair60°F50°F72%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmW5Calm333E8E8SE9E8E7E8SE3S3CalmS4CalmCalm
1 day agoW4W4W3W5W4W6NW8
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NW10NW10NW6NW5NW5N6Calm
2 days agoS3CalmS3SW4CalmSW3W3SW554W5--E12
G21
NE8N5N7N9NW7NW7NW4N10NW8CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.