Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:17AM||Sunset 7:22PM||Monday March 18, 2019 11:31 AM CDT (16:31 UTC)||Moonrise 3:28PM||Moonset 5:15AM||Illumination 94%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wyoming, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kmpx 181052|
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
552 am cdt Mon mar 18 2019
Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 355 am cdt Mon mar 18 2019
dry conditions continue today and Tuesday, with temperatures taking
on a warming trend as deep ridging works down into the central us.
Another cool day with mostly cloudy skies expected today, as
canadian high pressure moves over the area. Highs will remain below
normal in the upper 30s for another day, but a change is coming as
deep ridging begins building into the central us along with warm and
dry northwest flow aloft. Ahead of this ridging on Tuesday, a
shortwave is forecast to propagate along the eastern periphery of
the ridge and spin up a weak surface low over manitoba. Moisture
will be scant and the low will be dissipating by the time it
reaches our area, so little more than flurries are expected Tuesday
morning as the surface trough passes. Behind this system, southerly
flow develops at the surface along with low-level warm air
advection. While skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy, warm
air advection at the surface to push highs on Tuesday into the 40s
with temperatures approaching 50 across west-central wisconsin where
skies look to be clearer. Dew point temperatures look rise above
freezing as well which will really begin to increase the rate at
which we see the snowpack melt during the day. However, flooding
impacts are still expected to remain localized to ice jams on
smaller streams and rivers in the short term.
Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 355 am cdt Mon mar 18 2019
not much has changed with thinking in the extended, with warmer
temperatures this week into next weekend kicking off our final
spring snowmelt (of existing pack) and starting our spring
snowmelt flood. Fortunately, there are no precipitation chances
until the weekend (which is not a forgone conclusion we'll actually
see anything), with several days of a rather orderly melt expected,
with dewpoints remaining near or below freezing through Friday,
which will allow temps to cool off at night.
Model agreement is pretty good through the course of the work week,
with a significant blocking ridge developing over the canadian
rockies with a dry north northwest flow dominating the upper ms
valley region. This ridge will drift over to the center of noam by
the end of the week, and from this point on, model spread becomes
quite large with how a trough coming out of the southwest will
evolve as it moves into this blocking pattern over the weekend. Our
current forecast has plenty of 20s to 40s pops starting Saturday
night and lasting into the start of next week. This is being driven
by the gfs, which continues to be on the progressive end of the
spectrum with pushing this southwest trough up into upper ms valley,
where it stalls out as it runs into the weak flow of the ridge. The
other end of the spectrum, the ECMWF really builds the ridge in
ahead of the southwest trough, with a rex block developing to our|
northwest over the weekend. This block keeps the southwest wave to
our south and would keep us dry through early next week. At this
point, given the spread, stayed with the blended pops. Though given
the strength of the ridge, would favor the drier idea like we are
seeing from the ecmwf.
For temperatures, we once again swapped out the superblend
highs lows for the warmer nbm. The problem with superblend
temperatures is they continue to be contaminated by the canadian,
which is way too aggressive with cooling the boundary layer over the
snowpack. The northerly flow aloft will help hold our temepratures
back some through Thursday, but by Friday, the trough to our east
will start to loose it's influence over us, with a chinook warmed
airmass dropping in from the canadian prairies. Confidence is high
we'll see widespread 50s by Friday that will last through the
weekend. In addition, with the wave approaching from the southwest
this weekend, we'll see a deep southerly flow develop over the
plains and we're beginning to see more and more guidance say we'll
see highs into the 60s, with dewpoints climbing into the 40s this
weekend, which will pretty much put an end to the snowpack for
anywhere currently under 8 inches in depth.
Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 552 am cdt Mon mar 18 2019
fog has been slow to form overnight despite clear skies, with only
patchy areas of generally MVFR fog currently across the area.
Expect these areas of fog to continue to develop and impact area
terminals by the start of the period, and last through mid-
morning. Skies will be clear to start the period with increasing
high cloud cover this afternoon and mid cloud cover tonight.
Westerly winds at or below 10 kts this afternoon become
Kmsp... MVFR fog is expected to continue through 9-10 am.VFR
through the rest of the period.
Outlook for kmsp
tue...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind SW 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind W 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Mpx watches warnings advisories
Short term... Eta
long term... Mpg
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI||16 mi||37 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||32°F||26°F||81%||1028.8 hPa|
|Minneapolis / Blaine, MN||17 mi||47 min||SW 4||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||32°F||26°F||80%||1027.8 hPa|
|Cambridge Municipal Airport, MN||22 mi||37 min||SW 3||10.00 mi||Fair||36°F||24°F||65%||1027.8 hPa|
|Lake Elmo Airport, MN||24 mi||57 min||SW 4||10.00 mi||32°F||28°F||87%||1028.1 hPa|
Wind History from OEO (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W||W||W||W||SW||W||W||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||SW||W||W||W||Calm||Calm||W||W||Calm||SE||S||Calm|
|2 days ago||NW|
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (12,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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