Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 4:38 PM

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FXUS63 KMPX 051933 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 233 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather is expected throughout the upcoming week with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

- Strong southeasterly winds are expected Monday into Monday evening, particularly in western MN.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

It’s a gorgeous Sunday afternoon across the Upper Midwest with light winds, temperatures in the upper 60s with only some diurnal Cu thanks to a surface high overhead. By this evening, the surface high shifts over the Great Lakes with the 500mb ridge axis over Minnesota and Wisconsin through the first half of the day Monday. With strong WAA in place, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low to mid 70s. A strong, negatively tilted trough and its associated surface low will swing into Wyoming and South Dakota during this time, setting the stage for some gusty southeasterly winds for the western half of the forecast area. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the late morning through the evening across western Minnesota. Clouds will increase through the day from west to east as the aforementioned low continues to move northeastward across the Dakotas, but we should make it through the majority of the afternoon without any precip. CAMs depict a line of showers moving from southwest Minnesota to the northeast with the front as the low wraps up over the Dakotas Monday night into early Tuesday. As for thunder chances, while it can’t be ruled out entirely, they are low due to the timing of the best lift along the front. QPF wise, a quick 0.5-0.75” is expected through Tuesday afternoon with higher amounts possible across western and southern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday will still be in the mid 60s to low 70s with clouds gradually clearing late in the afternoon behind the precip.

Heading into Tuesday night, the low and its parent 500mb wave appear to stall out over the western Dakotas. This will allow for continued shower chances throughout the next couple of days.
We will find ourselves in the warm sector of this broad system through Wednesday. By Thursday, the system finally makes some eastward progress as the ridge across the Northeast breaks down.
QPF over these few days will amount to 0.25-0.50” or so, with the highest totals across the southern third of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday will have the highest precip chances. With the cold front finally moving through on Thursday, highs will fall into the low 60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Non-zero chances for showers will continue through the end of the week with temperatures gradually warming into next weekend. Looking ahead, a stretch of drier weather looks increasingly likely with mild temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Lots of VFR this duration as precipitation looks to hold off until Monday evening. SKC conditions through tonight with high clouds increasing during the day Monday. Winds will become southerly in the 5-10kt range this afternoon, backing to SE this evening through Monday. Speeds then expected to increase to around 15G25kt during the day Monday, likely a bit higher over western MN.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Monday for Brown- Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

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