Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wyoming, MN

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Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 9:04PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 12:54 PM CDT (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wyoming, MN
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location: 45.33, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 191736
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1236 pm cdt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Issued at 1230 pm cdt Wed jun 19 2019
updated for the 18z aviation discussion below.

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 455 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
another day similar to the past few is expected today as a
stagnant weather pattern remains over the region. Thunderstorm
chances today look to remain constrained to the dakotas where
upper level support is stronger, but a few widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out later this afternoon
across far-western minnesota. Expect patchy fog in low- lying
areas this morning, with widespread cumulus and stratocumulus
redeveloping later this morning and afternoon, before dissipating
towards sunset. High level cloud cover will be on the increase
from west to east as well this afternoon, as our next system
approaches from the west. Highs are generally expected to range in
the mid 70s with light easterly winds.

Precipitation chances will increase overnight across western minnesota
and spread east through the day as a shortwave approaches out of
the dakotas. Still some uncertainty in how far east into eastern
minnesota west-central wisconsin this activity will make it as the
area of vorticity associated with the shortwave shortwave weakens
and pulls of to the north Friday afternoon evening. Have
mentioned likely pops during the morning and afternoon across
western minnesota where guidance is showing solid consensus in an
area of showers and thunderstorms, but have a fairly tight
gradient across central and eastern minnesota to account for this
uncertainty. Severe weather is not anticipated with the
instability axis remaining far to the south and west. Heavy rain
does not look to be an issue as well with the systems losing it's
support as it enters our area and only modest pw values in place.

Generally anticipating around 0.25-0.5" across western and west-
central minnesota, with locally higher amounts of around an inch
possible. Temperatures will remain similar to Wednesday with
southeast winds increasing to 10-20 mph.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 337 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019
showers and some thunderstorms should be waning Thursday evening
as forcing begins to weaken and heights continue to rise. The llj
will also be too weak to generate thunderstorm activity, so
chances Thursday night are mainly tied to earlier convection that
should be diminishing. May be able to remove pops altogether
late Thursday night in future forecasts.

The convective evolution Friday and Saturday remains quite
uncertain. A positively tilted trough over the northern plains
will being increasing heights all the way into Saturday across the
upper mississippi valley which very well could suppress
convection. In addition, a surface warm front will remain well to
the south over iowa, as well as the elevated mixed layer. A
potentially volatile airmass will exist across mo into parts of
ia with moist dew points beneath the very steep lapse rates aloft.

An occluded front will extend northward from the triple point in
the vicinity of sioux falls up to the surface low over southern
manitoba Friday. Thunderstorms are possible along the occluded
front, but are more likely along the warm front to the south. This
southern convection, possibly evolving into one or more mcss,
could contaminate the instability to the north, adding in another
negative factor for convective development locally. If storms do
form, however, they will be rooted in a favorable instability wind
shear parameter space to become severe even up into western mn
Friday afternoon. Hence, the SPC day 3 slight risk.

The warm front could lift a little further north Saturday, but
much will depend on the convective evolution during the preceding
24 hours. Thunderstorm chances will continue, with some potential
for severe storms, until the occluded front clears to the east
late Saturday.

Another upper low will lift northeast into the plains and midwest
Sunday, but the majority of forcing appears to pass to the south.

Pops continue into early next week with this feature, but they may
be able to be taken out in later forecasts as timing and placement
of this feature become clearer.

Heights will begin to build mid to late next week with a 595-596
dm ridge centered over the southern rockies to central plains by
next Friday. This will keep temps and humidity trending higher as
time GOES on, but also keeps us in a northwest flow pattern
favorable for a ring of fire scenario.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1230 pm cdt Wed jun 19 2019
overall a quiet period expected. Main changes to the forecast for
Thursday was to slow down the incoming precipitation and reduce
precip chances especially east. For this TAF period, only included
precip mention at kaxn, otherwise dry andVFR conditions prevail.

Winds will be easterly 5-10 knots and becoming southeasterly
tomorrow.

Kmsp...VFR for the period. Sct'd cumulus this afternoon with high
clouds remaining overnight. Trending drier for late Thursday with
cigs around 060 by 18z.

Outlook for kmsp
fri...VFR MVFR with pm ifr -tsra possible. Winds SE 10 kts.

Sat...VFR MVFR with ifr -tsra possible. Winds vrb 5-10 kts.

Sun...VFR MVFR with -tsra possible. Winds lgt and vrb.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Spd tdh
short term... Eta
long term... Borghoff
aviation... Spd tdh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI16 mi59 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F51°F51%1011.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN17 mi64 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F55°F57%1010.2 hPa
Cambridge Municipal Airport, MN22 mi58 minNNE 410.00 miFair75°F55°F50%1010.5 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN24 mi74 minNE 510.00 mi72°F55°F57%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from OEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW4CalmNW4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3N5NE4
1 day agoCalmSE7S7S5W5W6W7W5W4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW8W3W6W5
2 days agoCalmSE7SE5S3SE5S7SE9SE9SE4SE4SE5SE4SE3S6SE5SE4S5SE7SE5S5S4S5SW6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.