Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Martin Lake, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:03PM Monday September 25, 2017 7:08 PM CDT (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:27AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martin Lake, MN
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location: 45.33, -93.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 252322
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
622 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017

Update
Issued at 622 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017
updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

Short term (this evening through Tuesday)
issued at 315 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017
surface analysis this afternoon indicates a surface low at the
southern tip of hudson bay with a trailing cold front extending sw
through lake superior into far southeastern minnesota and continuing
into northeastern nebraska. Extensive high pressure then takes up
much of central canada into the northern plains. Aloft, a deep
western CONUS trough lingers over the rockies with a ridge from the
great lakes south through the central gulf of mexico. There had been
little impetus for the front to shift off to the east over the past
couple days but the upper level trough is expected to lift out which
is helping shove the front to the east. The front is still within a
slot of deeper moisture and instability, hence the breaking out of
thunderstorms over the wisconsin portion of the WFO mpx coverage
area this afternoon. However, the deepening of the trough aloft and
strengthening of the northern stream jet will allow for more
widespread showers to develop this evening through much of the
overnight hours for much of the coverage area. A cutoff low within
the trough will spin out of the plains to the minnesota canada
border by midday tomorrow, keeping rain in place for much of the
time along with low overcast. Rainfall amounts are not expected to
be excessively high but from central minnesota eastward, areas can
expect close to a half inch of rainfall accumulation. As high
pressure makes inroads to the area by late day tomorrow, skies will
start to clear out and drier air will move into the region. The
other main story will be the end of the abnormally warm
temperatures. While inner west-central wisconsin enjoyed
temperatures into the lower 80s today, with the remainder of the
coverage area having highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s, highs on
Tuesday will range from the mid 50s in western mn to the mid 60s in
western wi. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 40s to lower 60s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Monday)
issued at 315 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017
canadian high pressure will build across the region setting the
stage for seasonably cool and dry weather this week. An upper
level wave will move across the upper midwest and bring slightly
warmer temperatures along with a chance of rain late this weekend
and early next week.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery together with GFS 500mb
heights and winds identified a high amplitude longwave trough over
the rocky mountains. Over the next few days, this trough will
eventually form a cut off low as a shortwave slides down the west
coast. Meanwhile northwest flow will develop over the upper
midwest with large scale subsidence resulting in surface high
pressure for the middle of the week lasting through much of next
week.

Eventually this surface high will shift eastward and the upper
level low will lift northeast bringing ascent across the region
late Sunday into Monday. The ejection of this wave will be driven
by a strong jet that will crash onshore the pacific northwest, so
should see the best chance for widespread rain Sunday night into
Monday, especially across northern and western minnesota.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 622 pm cdt Mon sep 25 2017
frontal boundary currently located near or just east of the
forecast area will move very little overnight, with occasional
showers riding northeast along the baroclinic zone in the wake of
the front. A surface wave will develop along the front late
tonight and Tuesday morning, which will then lift northeast toward
lake superior by Tuesday afternoon. This will help to produce
better cold air advection and subsidence across our area, which
will work to end any lingering precipitation and raise ceilings,
with scattering out of the lower clouds probably not occurring
until Tuesday night. Until then, we'll have widespread ifr and
low-MVFR conditions across the area.

Kmsp... Main uncertainties are the timing of the arrival and
departure of ifr conditions, and the possibility of brief lifr
conditions early Tuesday morning. Stayed fairly close to the
previous forecast, and kept things in the ifr range for now.

Timing of arrival departure of the worst conditions could vary by
several hours from forecast, so amendments may be needed.

Outlook for kmsp
Tuesday overnight...VFR. Northwest wind less than 10 kt.

Wednesday...VFR. Northwest wind less than 10 kt.

Wednesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.

Thursday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 15 kt.

Thursday night...VFR. North wind around 10 kt.

Friday...VFR. North wind 10 kt or less.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update...

short term... Jpc
long term... Jrb
aviation...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi19 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast61°F57°F88%1015.2 hPa
L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI20 mi14 minN 410.00 miOvercast59°F59°F100%1016.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN24 mi16 minN 510.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1015 hPa

Wind History from ANE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9--CalmCalmSW5SW3W4W7NW7W4NW5NW8NW7NW5NW5NW6N6N6N6
G12
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1 day agoCalmE4Calm--SW5N3CalmN3CalmS4S5S5SE4SE5S8S8S8S12
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2 days ago--S12
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G16
S8S9S9S9S9S7SW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.