Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Martin Lake, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 5:08PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:23 AM CST (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:46PMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martin Lake, MN
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location: 45.33, -93.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 240552 aac
afdmpx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1152 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019

Update
Issued at 913 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019
at 9 pm, the cold front was located roughly from lake of the woods
southwestward to madison. Wind gusts behind it have been ranging
from 30 to 40 kts, strongest in the red river valley. The front
will continue to surge southeast overnight and winds will increase
markedly following the passage of the front as low level lapse
rates steepen. Only some minor changes were made to the forecast
this evening. Increased pops into the likely range for some snow
showers near and just behind the front. Minimal accumulation is
forecast, but it will contribute to worsening visibilities. The
other change was to expand the blizzard warning to waseca,
freeborn, and steele counties to include the i-35 corridor. Not
expecting any appreciable difference here vs. Further west and
travel conditions along the interstate are expected to be quite
bad with plenty of drifting in addition to the occasional
whiteouts.

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 415 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019
forecast still remains on track for ground blizzard conditions to
develop late tonight and tomorrow morning across portions of western
and southern minnesota. Our arctic front is just now crossing the
us canadian border into western north dakota where gusts of 35 mph
are already being reported. Expect the pressure gradient behind the
front to tighten even further and wind speeds to increase as it
approaches western minnesota late tonight. This tightening
gradient along with steep low- level lapse rates from intense
cold air advection will allow for wind gusts as high as 40 to 45
mph for a few hours as the front passes. Calls to mndot officials
and county emergency management suggests there is plenty of
powdery snow left over from last weekend to blow around, so felt
confident in extending the blizzard warning south to the iowa
border. Have included a winter weather advisory for blowing snow
further east into portions of central and southeastern minnesota,
where winds will not quite reach blizzard criteria and the
snowpack is not as fresh. Expect the worst conditions to begin
late tonight across western minnesota and during the overnight
hours across southern minnesota, with blizzard conditions expected
to continue through mid-morning. Winds decrease somewhat into the
afternoon, but will still be plenty high enough for visibility
concerns to continue, though of lesser impact. Winds diminish
Thursday evening into Friday morning along with the threat for
blowing snow.

Along with the blowing snow, temperatures will plummet behind the
arctic front along with dangerously cold wind chills Thursday
morning into Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop below zero as
the front passes, which along with the breezy winds will result in
wind chill values dropping to -25 to -35 degrees by Thursday night.

Temperatures drop even more Friday morning with -20s looking likely
across portions of central minnesota, but despite the frigid
temperatures it looks like wind chill values will stay in the -25 to
-35 range as wind speeds drop below 6-7 mph.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 415 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019
two concerns in the long term are the potential for a healthy snow
Sunday night into Monday followed by just how cold is the arctic
outbreak in its wake for next week going to be.

This weekend will be cold, no question about that, though the core
of the cold air, which comes in Thursday will be sliding off to our
east for the weekend. So we'll be cold, but typical winter cold with
highs of +5f to +10f and lows 10f to 15f below north of i-94 and 5f
to 10f below south of i-94. Our pressure gradient all three days
does not look overly strong, so winds will be fairly light through
the weekend, which will keep wind chills from getting out of
control, with peak cold values in the mornings ranging from around -
15f along the iowa border, to around -30f in central mn. So we
should not need any wind chill warnings, but will likely have some
advisories every morning.

For Sunday night and Monday, the gfs ECMWF are in remarkably good
agreement on a rather strong clipper impacting the region. This
looks to have the potential to be an over achieving clipper, with a
health swath of 6-10" of snow possible somewhere over southern mn
into southern wi. The reason this has the potential to be a high end
clipper is the route it takes. It will come out of northern alberta
Sunday morning, reaching southern central iowa Monday morning, where
it will make a hard left and head nearly due east toward detroit.

This puts an inflection point over southern mn for the
precipitation, resulting in a more prolonged event. Both the
gfs ECMWF lay down a strip of 0.5" to 0.6" of QPF with this system.

When looking at the cips analogs, there's a similar system from the
end of the december of 2000 where msp got 7.5" of snow out of a mere
0.25" of liquid, so beside the longer duration snow, given how cold
it will be, we are certainly looking at the potential for slrs to be
near or even exceeding 20:1, which would allow snow totals to
overachieve quite a bit. The one variable that could throw a wrench
in this forecast though is the cold and dry arctic high that will be
centered just to the north of the great lakes that will be the
source region for our near surface air parcels, so this dry air
could limit how far east significant snow amounts make it. Winds
don't look strong enough to meet blizzard criteria, but they will be
strong enough to where we will have blowing and drifting issues as
well, and with a big arctic high and strong cold advection following
this snow, we could be blowing it around quite a bit in the days
that follow.

As for what comes next week, the ensembles and deterministic models
are both pointing to our most significant surge of arctic air
coming down for much of the week. Early indications are that this
could be something that brings -20f type lows, even to msp, with
highs remaining well below zero. With that said, if you go back 7-10
days ago, the arctic outbreak coming to end this week was forecast
to be colder than what we are expecting to see, with models
moderating some on the cold as we got closer. Given the 23.12 ecmwf
has an arctic outbreak that would end up being historic for next
week, I would expect some moderation in the forecasts for next week
in the coming days, but it will still be well below normal to end
january, that we are confident in.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1152 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019
visibilities are dropping quickly across western mn due to
strengthening winds and blowing snow. Expecting lifr conditions or
lower at axn, rwf, mkt later tonight into Thursday morning. A band
of snow may bring some MVFR visibilities further east with the
arctic front. Very cold and dry air will arrive Thursday morning
which will scour out any remaining stratus.

Kmsp... MVFR CIGS will continue into mid morning Thursday. Some
light snow is likely later tonight, with little or no
accumulation.

Outlook for kmsp
fri...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts
sun... MVFR ifr with sn late. Ese at 10g20 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Winter weather advisory from 9 am to 3 pm cst Thursday for
mnz041-047-048-054>057-064.

Blizzard warning until 9 am cst Thursday for mnz041-047-048-
054>057-064.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm cst Thursday for mnz042-049-
058-066.

Winter weather advisory from 9 am to 6 pm cst Thursday for
mnz065-067-073>075-082>085-091>093.

Blizzard warning until 9 am cst Thursday for mnz065-067-073>075-
082-083-091-092.

Blizzard warning from 3 am to 9 am cst Thursday for mnz084-085-
093.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 6 pm cst Thursday for
mnz076>078.

Update... Borghoff
short term... Eta
long term... Mpg
aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi29 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast21°F15°F80%1008.1 hPa
Cambridge Municipal Airport, MN20 mi28 minN 010.00 miLight Snow18°F8°F68%1008.5 hPa
L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI20 mi29 minN 010.00 miOvercast18°F14°F86%1009.1 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN24 mi31 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast20°F14°F78%1009.6 hPa

Wind History from ANE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW3NW4NW5NW4W5W44W4W4W5W6W3W5W5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3
1 day agoSE12
G18
SE10SE6SE5SE6SE3SE6E5E4CalmCalmCalmW4N7N7N5CalmW3NW3NW3NW3NW4CalmCalm
2 days agoE3SE3SE5SE8SE8SE8SE12SE12SE12
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G20
SE13
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.