Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Martin Lake, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:05PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:10 PM CDT (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:41PMMoonset 6:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martin Lake, MN
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location: 45.33, -93.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 201144
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
644 am cdt Sat apr 20 2019

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 353 am cdt Sat apr 20 2019
if you liked the weather Friday, then you are absolutely going love
what's on tap for today! Not much has changed in the thinking from
the previous forecast, with highs around 80 out toward madison, mn
where 925mb temps will get up to 22c, with widespread 70s across the
rest of our mn cwa, with generally upper 60s in western wi as they
will be east of the main 925mb thermal ridge axis this afternoon.

Another mainly sunny day is expected as most of the cloud cover and
precipitation chances stay up along the international border, closer
to the northern stream of the jet.

Tonight, we're still seeing a good deal of spread as to where any
precip ends up. The upper low currently over socal will be coming
out onto the central plains, which will lead to the development of
an h85 and surface low over nebraska. We'll see southerly flow and
isentropic lift develop ahead of these features, which will
eventually result in a few showers thunderstorms developing to the
north of the cold front that will be slowly sagging south. We did
slow down the arrival of pops, with nothing showing up in our area
until after midnight Saturday night. Within the cams, we are seeing
two areas of more focused forcing showing up, one in the h85-h7
frontal zone, with another area at the nose of the llj. With the
20.00 NAM arw and 20.06 hrrr, we are seeing a trend of the fgen band
setting up just north of the mpx cwa. For the nose of the llj, not
all models are producing precipitation, but for ones that do, they
have a weak area of showers developing in west central mn around 6z
Sunday that track east toward western wi through the rest of the
night. Given the spread in guidance, stayed close to blended
guidance for pops tonight, which kept chance slight chance pops
going, with the highest values over central mn. For lows tonight,
continued south winds out ahead of the cold front will keep
temperatures very mild, with most areas south of i-94 likely
remaining above 50.

Biggest change we've seen for Sunday is a drying trend, with the
main forcing for precip coming Sunday night and especially Monday.

Did lower pops outside of northwest wi, with Sunday looking to be
mainly cloudy. The trouble for Sunday is with the front slowly
moving through, we'll have a difficult temperature gradient to
contend with. We should see a good 20-25 degree spread in highs
across our area, with central mn behind the front only getting into
the lower mid 50s, while along the i-90 corridor, highs in the
mid upper 70s look likely ahead of the front.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 353 am cdt Sat apr 20 2019
persistent ridging off of the atlantic seaboard continues to delay
the progression of Sunday's frontal boundary, with the greatest
precipitation chances now looking to occur late Sunday night through
Monday. The slower speed of this front continues to create the
possibility for heavier rainfall with this system as pw values
increase to over 1" on Monday. Models depict a heavy band of 1-2" of
rain developing across our area along the front on Monday as the
greatest forcing aloft moves overhead, but differ on the placement
of this rainfall. Have kept widespread precipitation amounts around
0.5" for now across the area, but would expect these to increase as
we get closer to Monday and guidance hopefully converges on the
placement of this feature. Instability looks to remain fairly
meager, on the order of a few hundred j kg of mucape, so only a few
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected. The front is
forecasts to finally sag east of the area Tuesday morning, along with
the rainfall.

Fairly quiet weather is expected Tuesday afternoon through the end
of the week as the flow becomes weak aloft, with the jet split
between streams to our north and south. A weak shortwave passing
overhead on Thursday may bring the chance for a few showers, but
chances look better off to our north and east. A more organized
system looks to impact the upper midwest next Saturday as the jet
becomes more active across the region. Plenty of details still to
work out at this range, but our wet start to spring looks to
continue with models depicting the chance for another soaking
rainfall.

Temperatures will be below-normal on Monday behind the front and
with widespread rainfall keeping highs in the low to mid 50s.

Temperatures the rest of the week look to remain seasonable, with
highs in the 60s and lows around 40.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 644 am cdt Sat apr 20 2019
not much happening today with south winds picking up out ahead of
a cold front that will move into the area tonight. For tonight,
the question becomes if where we'll see any precip. Seeing
indications of two pieces of energy across mn tonight, one a more
frontal band likely remaining north of mpx terminals, with the
other being a cluster of showers on the nose of a llj. It's this
shower cluster that likely has the greatest chance of bringing us
precip to mpx terminal late tonight. Followed a hrrr timing for
bringing vcsh through mn terminals. However, low levels of
forecast soundings remain dry, so this may be nothing more than
virga.

Kmsp... Cold front looks to be working through msp Sunday morning.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR. Wind e-ne 5-10 kts.

Mon... MVFR. Chc ifr. Shra likely chc ts. Wind NE 15-20g25 kts.

Tue... BcmgVFR in mrng. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Mpg
long term... Eta
aviation... Mpg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi26 minSSW 15 G 2110.00 miClear68°F32°F26%1008.8 hPa
Cambridge Municipal Airport, MN20 mi16 minS 11 G 1610.00 miFair72°F44°F38%1008.1 hPa
L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI20 mi16 minS 11 G 1710.00 miFair65°F33°F31%1010.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN24 mi18 minS 13 G 2110.00 miFair68°F36°F31%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from ANE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW6NW4W4W5CalmW34CalmSW3SW3SW3S3S3S4S5S4S6S5S7S11
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1 day agoNW8N10N10N10N10N10
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2 days agoE8NE7NE7NE7NE7N11N10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.