Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Martin Lake, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:27PM Monday October 15, 2018 6:38 AM CDT (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:59PMMoonset 10:12PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Martin Lake, MN
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location: 45.33, -93.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 151110
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
610 am cdt Mon oct 15 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 343 am cdt Mon oct 15 2018
we begin the week with dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

The upper level low in northern mn will continue its gradual
eastward progression into northern wisconsin and will be followed by
northwest flow. This will allow for clouds to clear over southern
minnesota during the mid to late morning and cloud cover to linger
over west central mn through the afternoon.

Warm air advection will cause 850 mb temperatures in western mn to
be near -5c and warmer than the remainder of the forecast area.

Thus, we will see a about a ten degrees range in high temperatures
with upper 40s across western mn to lower 40s over western wi. A
shortwave trough will progress southeastward and extend from ontario
into the western great lakes region and cause an increase in cloud
cover Monday night. The pressure gradient will keep winds near 10
kts overnight into Monday morning. Otherwise, we will remain dry
with temperatures cooling into the low to mid 30s.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 343 am cdt Mon oct 15 2018
not much change in the extended, with a very quiet stretch of
weather expected into next week. This week, we'll see convergent
split flow across the central conus. Over the weekend, the split
flow GOES away, with the flow becoming more amplified with a ridge
west and trough east and northwest flow for us in between. Next
week, that western ridging looks to build east into the plains.

This week, the convergent northwest flow will keep us dry and allow
us to warm up. Cold front coming through Tuesday morning will keep
cooler air in place both Tuesday and Wednesday, but WAA kicks in
Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front which comes in on
Friday. Thursday continues to look like the warmest day, though the
warmest part of the thermal ridge will reside across nodak into
northern mn. Still will be plenty warm enough here with breezy
southwest winds helping to enhance mixing and potential highs. Still
anticipate low mid 60s for most of our mn cwa, with upper 50s in wi.

Given full sunshine and favorable southwest winds, there's certainly
potential for Thursday to be a few degrees warmer than currently
forecast. Highs Friday will be dependent on how quickly the cold
front works through. Current forecast is on the faster side of the
model envelop for frontal speed with highs in the 50s, but if we get
a slower FROPA like the ECMWF is showing, then highs Friday could be
5-10 degrees warmer than what we currently have. At this point
either solution is plausible, so stuck with a blended forecast.

Best chance for precip will come with that Friday cold front. Models
show dewpoints increasing into the mid 40s ahead of the boundary,
which may be just enough to spark off some scattered showers, but we
aren't looking at anything significant, with the best chances over
in wi.

For the weekend, we transition into northwest flow. Still quite a
bit of uncertainty with the deterministic and ensembles with the
strength position of the eastern trough. The ECMWF canadian are
stronger farther west with the trough and keep us under the
influence of a cooler airmass, while the GFS has an adiabatically
warmed airmass back in place by Sunday. Ensembles show an equal
amount of spread, so stuck with a blended forecast for now, which
keeps us toward the cooler end of the model spectrum. Beside
determining how warm we'll be, the position of the trough will
determine whether or not a strong shortwave coming down in the
northwest flow allows for a chance of a mix for mainly western wi
sat into Sat night.

Next week, the western ridge looks to move out into the plains,
which will promote another warmup, along with a continuation of our
drier weather pattern.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 533 am cdt Mon oct 15 2018
low clouds near 3000-3500 ft have been reported across central mn
this morning causing mfvr ceilings at axn. A few flurries may also
be possible for eau this morning. Conditions will improve during
the late morning as there will be an overall decrease in cloud
cover from west to east. Southwesterly winds will be sustained
near 10-15 kts with gusts near 20-25 kts during the late morning
and afternoon. Winds will remain sustained near 10-15 kts during
the evening then become northwesterly overnight into Tuesday.

Otherwise, mid-level cloud cover will increase again tonight.

Kmsp... No additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
tue pm...VFR. Wind W bcmg NW 10-20 kts.

Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

Fri...VFR. Wind SW becoming NW 10-15 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Amk
long term... Mpg
aviation... Amk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge Municipal Airport, MN20 mi42 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F19°F60%1020.7 hPa
L O Simenstad Municipal Airport, WI20 mi43 minWNW 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast32°F25°F76%1021.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN24 mi45 minWNW 11 G 2310.00 miOvercast33°F21°F64%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from ANE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------NW9NW9NW9NW9W9W7W8NW8W7W8NW10NW7NW8W7W7
1 day ago------------------S12
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2 days ago------------------NW6NW7NW5NW5SW3W6W6W6W10W12W10W6SW43SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.