Tuesday, May30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:44PM Tuesday May 30, 2017 5:13 AM EDT (09:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 403 Am Edt Tue May 30 2017
Today..South winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early...then more widespread showers and Thunderstorms from late morning on. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds this afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early.
Wednesday..Southwest winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 300831
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
431 am edt Tue may 30 2017

Synopsis
A large upper-level low pressure system centered across
northern ontario will remain as the controlling weather system
across the north country over the next several days. Scattered
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected across
the area today, and again Wednesday afternoon. Drier air
filtering in from the west Wednesday night should result in
generally precipitation free conditions for Thursday. Temperatures
will remain at or slightly below seasonal levels through the
end of the week.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 416 am edt Tuesday... Early this morning, low stratus
remain in place from the adirondacks ewd across the srn
champlain valley and all of central s-central ERN vt. Will
continue to see some patchy dense fog in the adirondacks and
east of the greens through sunrise or so. Shouldn't see any fog
in the champlain valley, with southerly gradient flow and
channeling effects keeping pbl well-mixed locally (including
gusts to 25 mph early this morning). Early am lows expected to
range from the low-mid 50s in the champlain and st. Lawrence
valleys, to the mid 40s across the NRN adirondacks and ERN vt.

Kslk, a local cool spot, is currently 37f at 08z.

Fairly active weather pattern next 36 hours courtesy of
cyclonic flow regime and belt of 80-100kt southwesterly flow in
400-250mb layer east of large upper low anchored over northern
ontario. Left exit region of 250mb jet has been supporting pre-
dawn convective storms across far WRN ny and pa at 08z, and
anticipate this forcing shifting newd into NRN ny by 15z or so.

Instability is complicated by prevailing low stratus across the
nrn adirondacks ewd across much of vt at 08z. Continued south
winds will keep much of these low clouds in place today, with
best surface heating across the northern slopes of the
adirondacks and st. Lawrence county. Should see some combination
of elevated and or surface-based CAPE around 500 j kg across
our western zones, allowing for a few thunderstorms to take
place. Strong deep-layer shear (sfc-6km values of 50-60kt) may
support some organization, but weak CAPE may mean environment
shears much of the convection apart. With dewpoints only in the
low 50s, not expecting much severe potential. A few
stronger fast moving cores may contain brief heavy
downpours gusty winds and lightning, and have made mention of
this in the morning hazardous weather outlook. Strongest storms
likely across st. Lawrence county. As activity shifts ewd into
vt, appears instability will be increasingly elevated provided
stratus layer holds. Indicated chance tstms s-central vt and
northern ny, with slight chance further north and east given
expected instability fields. Pops increase to likely this
afternoon with best large-scale forcing via jet dynamics and
height falls. Will see a quarter to half inch of rainfall in
many spots, but with much of that falling in a 1-2 hr window
with the shower thunderstorm activity.

Winds will continue moderately strong from the south given
p-gradient, with gusts up to 30 mph in the champlain valley with
localized channeling effects. Lake wind advisory continues on
lake champlain with south winds increasing to 20-30kts later
this morning per nam-nest and btv-2km and 4km WRF runs.

Temperatures will reach the upper 60s in the champlain valley,
and lower 70s in the st. Lawrence valley. Thicker stratus east
of the green mtns should hold temps in the low-mid 60s for aftn
highs.

Anticipate lingering showers exiting across far ERN sern vt
during the 00-03z period tonight, leaving the balance of the
night dry across the north country. Pbl remains well mixed with
variably cloudy conditions continuing. Should preclude fog and
keep overnight lows warm, mostly in the 50s (locally 58f at
btv).

Yet another shortwave trough pivots around parent upper low on
Wednesday, translating enewd across the north country Wednesday
afternoon. A pre-frontal sfc trough developing across the ern
slopes of the adirondacks should serve as a focus for convective
initiation, with SBCAPE of 500-1000 j kg possible across much of
vt provided there is sufficient clearing insolational heating
during the late morning early afternoon hrs. Thus, pops ramp up
to 70-80% once again Wednesday aftn, with chance tstms mentioned
from the ERN slopes of the adirondacks ewd across vt as activity
shifts ewd. Activity again expected to be generally sub-severe
given limited dewpoints instability, but localized gusty
winds heavy downpours are possible. Highs on Wednesday expected
in the upr 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 352 am edt Tuesday... For the first half of Wednesday
evening we'll likely still be dealing with some scattered
showers across eastern portions of the forecast area, but as
diurnal cooling begins we should see the showers diminish. There
will be a more pronounced thermal gradient with the system on
Wednesday evening than Tuesday evening so overnight lows should
drop to more normal temps in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Unsettled weather continues on Thursday as there will likely be
some showers entering the area late in the afternoon over the
saint lawrence valley. Thursday may be the driest day of the
period as we could see some breaks in the clouds through the
morning and into the afternoon. Expect just below normal temps
in the upper 60s for highs on Thursday and lows right around
normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 352 am edt Tuesday... I'll keep with consistency here as
there really isn't much change from the previous forecast
thinking. The pattern for the extended period hasn't changed in
days, largely controlled dominated by an upper level low that is
blocked by a strong northern atlantic low pressure system.

While every day has a chance for showers, the best chance looks
to be Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front will swing
through. The upper level low gradually exits to our east over
the weekend and that is where the forecast gets a bit more
difficult as the spread in models becomes quite large. I've
discounted the drier GFS for Sunday's forecast as it's the
outlier between the gem ec which bring a cut off low pressure
system through the north country. This makes more sense because
that low would be the driving force to push out the persistent
upper level low that brought the continuous rounds of showers
through the week. Temps through the period should be very
seasonal with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, and lows in the
mid 40s to low 50s.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 12z Wednesday... .Highly variable aviation weather
conditions expected across the area over the next 24 hours. Pre-
dawn conditions include MVFR ceilings at btv rut owing to
stratus layer,VFR conditions at pbg mss with just passing mid-
level clouds, and ifr conditions at slk mpv owing to a
combination of fog and very low stratus conditions. Hir trrn
obscd generally through 15-16z this morning, and may remain
obscd thru most of the daylight hrs across central and ERN vt.

May see MVFR ceilings hold in across much of central ERN vt
during the daylight hrs, with better chances forVFR conditions
developing from the champlain valley wwd. Should see a broken
line of showers and a few embedded tstms develop across NRN ny
late this morning, with activity shifting ewd across vermont
this afternoon. Best chances for tstms at the TAF locations will
be at slk rut, with more stable low-level conditions due to
cloud cover expected to the north and east. Winds will be gusty
at times from the south. At btv, should see south winds 15-20kts
with gusts up to 25kt thru 21z today. Should see redevelopment
of low stratus tonight, with periods of MVFR ceilings and
localized ifr once again at slk mpv. Winds tonight generally
remain out of the south at 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra... Chance tsra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shra... Chance tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday:VFR MVFR. Likely shra.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Chance shra.

Marine
Lake wind advisory remains in effect for south winds 15-25kts
early this morning, increasing to 20-30 kts late this morning
through this afternoon. Should see waves build to 3-5 feet,
highest across the northern portion of the broad lake to near
the south facing shores of grand isle. Should see winds remain
from the south 15-25 kts tonight.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation... Banacos
marine... Team btv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi44 min 58°F 1012.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi21 minENE 310.00 miA Few Clouds53°F53°F100%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE3S9SE10SE94SE4E5S5SE5E4E3SE3S6S5S6S5S5CalmSE3SW4S6CalmNE3
1 day agoCalmSW5SW6S5Calm3CalmCalmNW83NE43S9CalmCalmCalmSE6SE5E3E4E3SE4SE6NE7
2 days agoCalmCalmS3CalmS3W63W6--NW345W5W3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW5SW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.