Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waddington, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:34PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 7:08 PM EDT (23:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:29PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201905220315;;239919 Fzus61 Kbuf 212033 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 433 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019 Slz022-024-220315- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 433 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Clear.
Wednesday..North winds less than 10 knots. Sunny.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waddington, NY
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location: 45.36, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 211940
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
340 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure building in from the west will bring diminishing winds
and clearing tonight, with dry weather through the first half of
Thursday. An upper-level disturbance approaching from southeastern
ontario will bring our next chance for precipitation, with showers
and embedded thunderstorms possible late Thursday into Thursday
night. Another frontal system will bring increasing chances for rain
late Saturday into Saturday night, with drying conditions on Sunday
as the frontal system shifts east of new england for the latter half
of the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday night
As of 339 pm edt Tuesday... Drier and cooler weather will prevail
through this period as high pressure settles across the region.

Clouds and showers will decrease in coverage this evening as we lose
daytime heating. Winds will be a bit slower to subside since the
pressure gradient between the approaching high and the departing low
will take a bit to relax. These winds are what will keep it from
being an optimal radiational cooling night. Still, it'll be chilly,
with lows dropping into the mid 30s in the northeast kingdom and
adirondacks. Can't rule out some patchy frost in more sheltered
spots in these areas, but not enough areal or temporal coverage to
warrant an advisory. Elsewhere, lows will be in the lower to mid
40s.

Wednesday starts out with plentiful sunshine with the high cresting
right overhead. High clouds will begin to filter in during the
afternoon and evening hours as an upper shortwave rounds the upper
ridge. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement keeping the
precipitation associated with this shortwave will remain shunted to
our south, though a few showers may make it into the adirondacks late
Wednesday night. Wednesday's highs will be in the 60s to near 70,
while overnight lows should be in the 40s to near 50.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 339 pm edt Tuesday... Showers and a few storms are expected
Thursday evening as low pressure moves across the north country.

This activity is being monitored for potential development of a few
strong storms with the storm prediction center placing portions of
new york in a slight risk for severe weather and the remainder of
the region in a marginal risk. Details written out next paragraph.

Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Winds will pick up with 10 to 15 mph southerly winds becoming
westerly overnight.

Storms develop Thursday, generally between 2pm and 8pm, in high
shear, low CAPE environment. A compact shortwave will move southeast
from ontario across the north country around 5pm. Accelerating flow
aloft along the advancing shortwave will provide a favorable upper
level environment, though best convergence will be focused south of
our forecast area. The question becomes whether we can get
sufficient heating and enough return flow moisture to destabilize
the environment. Deterministic and ensemble forecasts indicate cape
values generally between 250 and 1000 j kg with the highest values
across new york. The advancing front will provide the lifting
mechanism, but a southerly track of the low pressure system would
give us a narrow window of time spent in the warm sector. Shear will
be high with 0-3km bulk shear of 35 kts and 0-6km bulk shear upwards
of 60kts. This favors organization of convection, but may be too
fast for updrafts given the marginal instability. Theta-e advection
is good for the area, especially across northern new york, but the
system lacks strong frontogenesis and deformation. Destabilization
may also be hindered by a prefrontal trough with increased clouds
and some showers possible late Thursday morning, but the showers
could also potentially increase marginal lower to mid 50 dewpoints.

Furthermore, forecast soundings show a capping inversions in the mid-
levels. There is a bit of an elevated mixed layer aloft, but
convection will struggle to grow above 20000ft agl. Overall, the
chance for storms will be conditional with the better chances across
new york with a few capable of producing strong, gusty winds.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 339 pm edt Tuesday... Shortwave responsible for Thursday's
weather moves southeast and then offshore. Some wrap around moisture
will mean showers linger across eastern vermont, but the rest of the
north country should dry out for Friday. With generally clear skies,
temperatures should warm into the upper 60s, though eastern vermont
will likely remain in the lower 60s.

The next weather systems will come through late Saturday into the
overnight hours and has a good moisture feed with pwats increasing
to 1.5". Rain likely for portions of the day with a rumble of
thunder possible. Model trends are pushing back the arrival and exit
time, but still think precipitation should clear the area in time
for the marathon on Sunday morning. Mostly dry conditions are on tap
for the remainder of Sunday and much of Monday. Models generally
diverge at this point. Channeled flow as a result of the anomalous
ridge to our south means systems will quickly move in and around the
region with a fast moving cold front around Monday night Tuesday and
another mid-week. Temperatures will be seasonable, shifting above
and below normal at times throughout the extended range.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
Through 18z Wednesday... Main aviation weather concern through
late this afternoon will be gusty NW winds and resultant low-
level turbulence. Ceilings have risen toVFR at all terminals
and this should persist through the afternoon, though can't
rule out local MVFR conditions in scattered showers, mainly at
kslk and kmpv. Winds and clouds will decrease as we head toward
sunset and mixing lessens. Skies will gradually clear from west
to east overnight, and winds will drop down to around 10 kt by
06z at all sites. Mostly clear skies andVFR conditions will
prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds will become
5-10 kt out of the north after 12z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
shra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Likely shra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
shra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Hastings
near term... Hastings
short term... Haynes
long term... Haynes
aviation... Hastings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 49 mi56 min 62°F 51°F1017.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY59 mi2.3 hrsNW 12 G 2910.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F35°F35%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW24
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1 day agoNE10E9NE9NE12NE16NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmSW10SW10SW7SW9SW9SW14
G19
------------SW20
G35
SW12
G23
2 days agoN3CalmCalmE4SE3CalmCalmE3NE4E6NE7E5NE10N10NE12NE11NE8NE11NE9E8E10------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.