Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 12:31 PM   Moonset 1:50 AM

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SLZ024 Expires:202405161530;;299499 Fzus61 Kbuf 160837 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 437 am edt Thu may 16 2024
slz022-024-161530- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 437 am edt Thu may 16 2024
Today - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Areas of fog early. Tonight - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Friday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers during the day. Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 161139 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 739 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Stationary boundary remains over our region today with some scattered light rain showers. The forecast trends drier to close out the week. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward, with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week expected with a gradual warming trend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 718 AM EDT Thursday...Have issued a special weather statement for patchy dense fog this morning. Anticipate fog will lift by about 10am. No other changes this morning. Previous discussion follows.

Weak stationary boundary will remain in place today, leading to some scattered light rain showers possible for most of the day. Front will finally shift south and east of the region tonight, and drier weather will return for tonight and Friday.
Some ridging begins to work into the region today, therefore don't expect as many showers today as the past couple days. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Could see some fog development again overnight, but shouldn't be as widespread as this morning since we'll be a day removed from the heavier precipitation and ridging will help us start to dry out. A dry and pleasant day is expected for Friday with high temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals as maximum temperatures reach the lower to upper 70s. Will have increasing chances for showers late in the day in our far western zones with next approaching system.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...Deterministic guidance continues to be split in regard to precipitation chances for Friday night through Saturday with notable differences seen in the track of a mid-level shortwave trough. Drier solutions track this feature north of the international border, while the wetter ones dip the track across northern portions of the North Country and Vermont. Ensemble members seem to lean more towards the wetter solutions so have bumped PoPs a bit into the 40- 60% range across the North Country with lower chances of 20-30% across northern VT. A few rumbles of thunder additionally can't be ruled out Friday night, though mainly in the St. Lawrence Valley.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...A significant warming trend is then expected for the latter half of the weekend through at least Tuesday as guidance continues to trend towards a stronger mid/upper level ridge building across the Northeast. Ensemble probabilities of max temps greater than 75 degrees increase each day from 60-80% of the members on Sunday, to 70-90% for Monday and Tuesday with 2/3rds of members showing potential for highs greater than 80 degrees in the wider valleys. The good news is that dewpoints don't look to be particularly high, only in the 50s, so humidity should be relatively comfortable. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Wednesday with the potential for a strong frontal passage.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12Z Friday...Saturated ground, copious low level moisture and light winds led to fog formation similar overnight.
After 14z, southeast to east flow will develop over Vermont, except northwest at KBTV, and then east to northeast over New York. Winds speeds should generally stay below 10 knots. A few showers will develop, mainly near the international border about 15z to 23z. Will need to monitor potential for fog formation once again tonight.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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