Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Petoskey, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday April 25, 2019 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:16AMMoonset 10:20AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 342 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.gale warning in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201904260345;;477710 FZUS53 KAPX 251942 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 342 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-260345-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petoskey, MI
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location: 45.36, -85.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 252338
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
738 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 335 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Some light rain tonight...

high impact weather potential: none through tonight.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon analysis reveals short-wave
energy digging down into the midwest western great lakes on the
tail-end of an upper jet streak that arcs across the northern
lakes. Surface low pressure is over northern ontario with a cold
front that extends down through eastern upper michigan and on into
eastern wisconsin. Thin axis of strong f-gen coupled with
entrance region upper jet forcing continues to produce a narrow
corridor of rainfall along and behind the front that now stretches
northeastward through wisconsin and across northern lake michigan
into the eastern u.P.

Meanwhile, southern stream short-wave energy and surface low
pressure has migrated up into the mid mississippi river valley
today and beginning to phase with the northern stream. These two
streams will continue to phase tonight into Friday as upper
troughing deepens substantially across the midwest great lakes.

This will also quickly spin-up surface low pressure over the ohio
valley tonight that will track up through the central and eastern
lakes on Friday and ultimately drag unseasonably cold air into
the region lakes heading into the late weekend of april.

Primary forecast concerns: none really, timing of precip through
the forecast area.

Cold front will gradually fold down through northern michigan
through this evening. Ongoing narrow axis of rainfall will
continue to slide up into the northern and western portions of the
forecast area this evening before eventually pivoting across the
rest of forecast area tonight. Additional showers will also be
lifting up through southeast lower michigan toward saginaw bay
skirting the SE counties... All as the upper trough and surface
low amplifies and works into the central and eastern great lakes
by morning.

Not a big rain producer... One to two tenths of an inch in some
areas.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 335 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Trending colder for the weekend, some wintry precipitation...

high impact weather potential: minor, though with some wintry travel
Saturday night over the southern portions of the cwa.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation type and amounts.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The strong storm system that lifted up
into the great lakes Thursday night, will continue to exit northeast
into quebec Friday, while a narrow area of high pressure drifts into
the state to begin the weekend. A second storm system organizing in
the plains will then quickly pass over the ohio valley and southern
great lakes Saturday night and Sunday.

Overall, current model data continues to suggest that the best
moisture and lift associated with the storm systems moving through
the great lakes this weekend, will mainly target southern michigan.

Model soundings show generally limited deep moisture across the cwa
through much of the period, with the best available moisture
extending north along a line between manistee and saginaw bay
between 00z Sunday and 12z Sunday. Pcpn will largely be rain over
the SRN portions of the CWA Saturday evening, before much colder air
(850mb temps falling to around -5c) filter into the region and
generate a wintry mix of rain and snow. The pcpn will end quickly
Sunday as high pressure and weak upper ridging settles into the
great lakes on the backside of the exiting system.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 335 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
primary forecast concerns challenges: on Sunday shortwave ridging
pushes into the region as Saturday's sytem moves off to the east.

Surface high pressure will give us dry and mostly sunny conditions
through much of the day. 850mb temperatures remain around -5 c
giving us readings below normal for late april, with highs remaining
in the mid 40 to upper 40s. Temperatures slowly trend back toward
near normal by the end of the week with mean troughing gradually
retrograding westward and forecast pna becoming increasing negative.

Multiple shortwaves cross the region, each giving chances of light
precipitation, with the best chances looking to be mid-week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 738 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
restrictions possible at pln this evening, otherwiseVFR.

Band of light rain is only very shortly drifting southward.

Persistent -ra in the pln area could result in brief periods of
MVFR or even ifr conditions, as has happened at sjx and cvx. But
for the most part,VFR conditions will prevail. The precip threat
will drift further southward with time tonight, then wave on
Friday.

A light northerly breeze will back NW and become gusty on Friday.

Marine
Issued at 335 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
gusty northwest winds will develop across the lakes on Friday and
continue into Saturday, as a deepening storm system slides up
through the central and eastern great lakes. This will lead to
gale force gusts for portions of lakes starting midday Friday
through midday Saturday. Small craft advisories for the rest of
the marine areas.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 6 pm edt Saturday for
lhz346.

Gale warning from 2 pm Friday to 2 pm edt Saturday for lhz345-
347-348.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 6 pm edt Saturday for
lhz349.

Lm... Gale warning from 2 pm Friday to 2 pm edt Saturday for lmz323-
341-342-344.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 2 pm edt Saturday for
lmz345-346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 6 pm edt Saturday for
lsz322.

Gale warning from 2 pm Friday to 2 pm edt Saturday for lsz321.

Near term... Ba
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 33 mi33 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 41°F1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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NE3
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI7 mi55 minN 07.00 miDrizzle41°F39°F96%1008.1 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi56 minN 63.00 miRain43°F41°F95%1009.1 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI19 mi57 minN 010.00 miLight Rain51°F44°F77%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3NE5E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW4SW3SW6W6S5SW5SW3SW3SW4Calm
1 day agoNW6
G14
CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW3SW4SW6SW5SW7SW4W3SW3Calm
2 days agoCalmE6E7E6E7NE9CalmNE8NE5NE3N5N3CalmCalmNW8
G15
NW5NW11
G16
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G18
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W11
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G22
NW7
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NW8
G19
N7
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.