Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Petoskey, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 6:47PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 9:35 AM EDT (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:52PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 253 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of snow showers early in the morning. Rain showers likely early in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 5 to 8 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201810171500;;307268 FZUS53 KAPX 170653 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 253 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-171500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petoskey, MI
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location: 45.36, -85.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 171045
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
645 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Brisk with lake enhanced rain and snow showers today into
tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Cold front has cleared our CWA early
this morning. NW low level flow CAA has kicked in immediately behind
the front... Resulting in surface temps dropping thru the 30s across
much of our cwa. Lake enhanced showers have yet to develop... But a
look at upstream radar kmqt shows the beginning of lake shower
development taking place attm.

As we head into today... CAA will continue with 850 mb temps dropping
to -10 to -12 c by evening. Deep cyclonic flow will remain in place
thru today... As spokes of deeper moisture pivot around the upper low
which will lend a hand to lake precip processes. Expect a general
mix of rain and snow thru today... With the best chance of snow
across eastern upper michigan and within the higher elevations of
northern lower michigan. The best chances of precip in general will
be for the typical NW flow snowbelt areas. These locations will see
a inch or two of wet snow accumulation thru today... Mainly on grassy
areas.

Upstream surface ridge axis will steadily build into the western
great lakes region tonight. Strengthening subsidence... The breakdown
of cyclonic flow and increasingly drier air will result in a gradual
diminish in remaining lake enhanced showers. Additional snow
accumulations tonight will be well under an inch.

Temps will not go very far today thanks to ongoing caa... With high
temps only reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s. Low temps tonight
will drop mainly into the 20s... With slightly warmer temps near the
lake michigan shoreline as NW low level flow persists.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis: rising heights aloft will be the rule on Thursday
while attendant surface high pressure and low level warm air
advection dominant northern michigan's sensible weather through
Friday morning. Attention then turns toward another clipper system
trekking across southern canada with increasing rain shower chances
Friday afternoon into Friday night... Followed by another plunge of
cold air and lake effect precipitation for the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: increasing precipitation
chances Friday.

Generally quiet weather is anticipated Thursday through Friday
morning across the forecast area as influence from high pressure to
our south leads to partly sunny skies and high temperatures some 10
or so degrees warmer than Wednesday... Ranging from the upper 40s to
low 50s area-wide.

Focus transitions to the Friday afternoon timeframe as mid-level
energy rides northeastward from the central plains toward the
western great lakes all while shortwave troughing digs across
manitoba into the upper mississippi valley. Increasing southwesterly
return flow will be the result locally throughout much of the day
with scattered isentropically driven showers entering the forecast
by midday into the remainder of the afternoon hours, with the
highest pops across the northern half of the forecast area. High
temperatures in the low-mid 50s across northern michigan.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
shower chances continue Friday evening associated with the
aforementioned clipper system's cold front expected to cross
northern michigan Friday night. Cyclonic flow on the backside of
this system will linger across the great lakes through Sunday with
plenty of cold air to continue rain snow shower chances downwind of
the great lakes. High temperatures throughout the extended period on
the order of 10 or so degrees below normal... Ranging from the upper
30s to mid 40s this weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
lake enhanced rain and snow showers will continue to impact much
of northern lower michigan today into this evening as cold air
sweeps into the region in the wake of a cold front that moved thru
last night. Overall conditions will remain lowVFR thru the
forecast period... But may briefly drop to MVFR within some of the
heavier showers. NW winds of 15 to 25 kts will occasionally gust
to 30 kts thru today... But will weaken later tonight as high
pressure begins to build into the region.

Marine
Issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
winds and waves will reach SCA criteria within all nearshore areas
today and tonight as NW winds strengthen in the wake of a cold front
that moved thru the region last night. Lake enhanced shower activity
will develop today as CAA continues. Showers will diminish tonight
as upstream high pressure and drier air gradually build into the
region. Conditions may reach gale warning criteria Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as SW winds strengthen on the backside
of the surface high center.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Gale watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for lmz341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi36 min NW 28 G 35 42°F 1018.3 hPa (+2.0)
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 33 mi36 min NW 17 G 26 38°F 52°F1016.4 hPa (+1.9)23°F
WSLM4 34 mi36 min WNW 20 36°F 46°F1016.1 hPa (+2.0)
45175 35 mi16 min N 14 G 27 40°F 60°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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SW10
G15
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G28
W17
G26
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G28
W16
G23
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G27
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NW11
G15
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W14
G21
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G23
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G30
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G25
W19
G30
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G31
W16
G28
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G29
NW19
G28
W17
G26
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G23
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G25
W13
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G23
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G14
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G20
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ago
W5
G9
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G11
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G10
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G11
W3
NE9
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G14
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G14
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G10
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G17
NW9
G16
N11
G14
NW10
G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI7 mi41 minWNW 10 G 142.50 miLight Snow33°F32°F94%1016.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi41 minW 22 G 303.00 miLight Snow and Breezy38°F31°F78%1018.3 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI19 mi42 minWNW 16 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW14
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SW14
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SW14
G21
N6
G15
CalmW4NW9
G15
W6NW5NW11
G16
NW7NW6NW12
G17
NW12
G16
W11
G17
NW8
G16
W6
G17
1 day agoW3W8
G14
W10
G15
W11
G18
W8
G15
W14
G24
W13
G28
W14
G22
W10
G21
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W9
G17
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G18
S8S8
G15
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SW12
G20
2 days agoS5SW5SW5SW7W4SW7SW5NW4CalmCalmE6NE6NE6E5NE6NE4NE6N11
G14
N6N8CalmNW5W4NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.