Friday, June23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Chateaugay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:06AMSunset 8:49PM Friday June 23, 2017 10:02 AM EDT (14:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:54AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 152 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Overnight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms early...then showers and Thunderstorms from late morning on. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds from late morning on.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Monday night.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chateaugay, NY
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location: 45.41, -73.91     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 231142
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
742 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area today.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible with stronger showers and
storms. A cold front will move through the region tonight,
reducing the humidity and bringing a brief return to dry weather
on Saturday. More showers return early next week. Temperatures
will be near to a bit below their seasonal normals, with highs
in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Near term through Saturday
As of 733 am edt Friday... East west band of showers and
thunderstorms along and just north of warm frontal boundary.

Nearly 1.5 inches so far at kslk, and kbtv has topped an inch
overnight. Rain area slowly lifting north but area in the rain
now will continue through late morning. Have updated qpf,
loading rtma for past periods to bump up storm total qpf. 12-18z
blended in with btv4 and rap short term model QPF that are
matching radar trends this morning. Hrrr did about the best with
model reflectivity matching placement of precip, so blended it
in to forecast pops out to about 18z.

Previous discussion... Warm front analyzed running east-west
from southern shore of lake ontario and across southern
vermont. Area of showers and thunderstorms along and to the
north of the front, aided by area of 500mb PVA moving into the
region in west-southwest flow out of deepening trough to the
west. Main body of rainfall will lift north this morning through
12z following track of the vort center and on nose of low level
southwest jet of 30-40 knots. Expecting a lull after precip
lifts north, then daytime destabilization will renew chances for
convection through the day. With upper trough to west, and warm
front and shortwave trough moving north there isn't organized
forcing thinking is that showers and thunderstorms will have to
be all instability driven.

Thermodynamic profile continues to show very efficient rainfall
processes, with pwats near 2 inches, warm cloud depth over 12k
feet, and a tall skinny cape. Given southwest unidirectional
flow there is the potential for storms to train over the same
location and produce heavy rainfall rates.

Severe threat less straightforward, with parameters pointing
toward marginal risk from spc. Best 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts
lifts north this morning with the warm front and low level jet,
then settles down to 35-40 kts for the afternoon storms.

Likewise CAPE is a modest 1500 j kg based on MAX surface temp in
the low 80s. Kept gusty winds small hail in forecast, but feel
the biggest threat today is heavy rainfall.

For tonight a cold front moves northwest to southeast bringing
rain chances to an end from west to east. Saturday will be
mostly dry, however a chance for showers remains mainly in the
northern higher terrain with passage of a shortwave trough in
southwest flow as trough to the west deepens. Lows tonight
still in the 60s, then cooler air trickles in for Saturday with
highs in the 70s.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday
As of 430 am edt Friday... Any showers Saturday evening should
end before midnight as any convection will mainly be instability
driven. Dry weather is then expected during the overnight hours
Saturday night through much of the morning hours on Sunday.

Shortwave trough will move across the area Sunday afternoon and
enhance the potential for showers... Especially over the northern
half of the area. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s to
around 60 with highs on Sunday in the 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 430 am edt Friday... Area remains under a broad upper
level trough of low pressure through about midweek. Shortwave
troughs moving through the large scale trough along with daytime
heating to destabilize the atmosphere will be enough to keep a
chance of showers going just about every day of the first half
of the week. The pattern will change as upper trough moves east
by Thursday and upper ridging builds in. Looking at drier
weather for the Thursday Friday time period along with a drying

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Through 12z Saturday... Rain creating MVFR to ifr conditions for
most TAF terminals, except krut far enough south to be on the
fringe. As the rain area lifts slowly north through late morning
conditions to improve toVFR cigs. After the morning rain kept
vcsh for the rest of the day. Uncertainty remains for forcing of
afternoon convection, and until we're able to pinpoint locations
as storms fire vcsh will suffice. CIGS drop to ifr after 00z
with passage of cold front. South winds with gusts in the high
teens today turn southwest and west overnight with passage of


Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Chance shra.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Storms will have high rainfall rates today, and training storms
moving over same location could produce isolated flash flooding.

Last rainfall event recharged streamflow across the region, and
additional rain during overnight hours saturating soils mainly
in northern ny and northern vt. With lack of organized forcing
mechanism for storms this afternoon heavy rainfall will be hit
or miss, and overall flood threat remains low. Storm total qpf
of around an 1"-1.25" expected over central and northern vt and
northern ny... With lesser amounts to the south. Larger rivers
and streams will see modest rises but remain within banks.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Hanson
near term... Hanson
short term... Evenson
long term... Evenson taber
aviation... Hanson
hydrology... Hanson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 97 mi44 min 68°F 1005.1 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT54 mi67 minS 47.00 miLight Rain64°F64°F99%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW5SW6SW7W4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE3CalmW3SE4SE5S4S5S5S8S6
1 day agoSW7SW6SW3
2 days agoSW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.